2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kohlecane]

Can't get the image to pull up but 800mb GH CV on 18Zgfs is eerily similar to the 12z euro on the potential M/L names in the MDR
EDIT: 240+

[Hammy]

Looks like Carla repeat on the GFS run. Even if the location and intensity are different, it certainly seems there's agreement at least between GFS/GEM that this is going to end up a fairly large system once it gets into the Gulf.

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't know what to say aside this from the 18z GFS

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_28.png

Say, ‘Strong Cat 3’

Cat 4, actually.

[toad strangler]

I'm with wxman57, eye candy until something closes off. BUT, it's certainly that #climo time of year for this to happen in this part of the basin. I just wouldn't in any way what-so-ever focus on even a general area along the coast.

The takeaway is that conditions are quite favorable for intensification, but at this point there is no telling where it would go. Could be anywhere from Mexico all the way to Louisiana.

Probably even larger than that.

[Category5Kaiju]

If that last GFS run were to verify, then we could be really looking at a major catastrophe. Like, a disaster worth more than 50 billion dollars and one that would scar Texas for months or even years. Hoping that does not come to fruition at all, it's the last thing we need.

[Iceresistance]

If that last GFS run were to verify, then we could be really looking at a major catastrophe. Like, a disaster worth more than 50 billion dollars and one that would scar Texas for months or even years. Hoping that does not come to fruition at all, it's the last thing we need.

Hurricane Bret in 1999 made landfall in a very sparsely populated SE Texas & only costed around $15 million 1999 US$ . . .

[Category5Kaiju]

If that last GFS run were to verify, then we could be really looking at a major catastrophe. Like, a disaster worth more than 50 billion dollars and one that would scar Texas for months or even years. Hoping that does not come to fruition at all, it's the last thing we need.

Hurricane Bret in 1999 made landfall in a very sparsely populated SE Texas & only costed around $15 million 1999 US$ . . .

Compared to 1999 though, hasn't Texas's Gulf coast really expanded in populated areas though as of now?

[Iceresistance]

If that last GFS run were to verify, then we could be really looking at a major catastrophe. Like, a disaster worth more than 50 billion dollars and one that would scar Texas for months or even years. Hoping that does not come to fruition at all, it's the last thing we need.

Hurricane Bret in 1999 made landfall in a very sparsely populated SE Texas & only costed around $15 million 1999 US$ . . .

Compared to 1999 though, hasn't Texas's Gulf coast really expanded in populated areas though as of now?

Yes in Houston & other major coastal cities, but the area where Bret made landfall has not changed much, only around 400 people live in Kenedy County, TX where Bret in 1999 made landfall . . .

[toad strangler]

Noi real proper place to put this so I'm dumping it here. the NHC cone isn't going to get tighter with end games like these last two! I mentioned it a couple times and thought maybe I was being too harsh. Apparently not. This said, there is no bigger proponent of the NHC than me. These were tough forecasts .

 http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1429878676204703748

[InfernoFlameCat]

I sure hope this is a one off scenario. If I see a repeat of that run again then I would get concerned.

[cycloneye]

The red circle is for the wave that Euro/CMC develop that emerges on the 30th.

[cycloneye]

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/WZXmptX.gif

The key is whether the long-range ensembles will show stronger ridging. Thus far the EPS and the operational EC still look "fishy." What is the likelihood that the models are wrong about the upcoming -NAO and we actually end up with strong instead of weak subtropics ridging? For this system to threaten the Islands or CONUS ridging would need to be stronger than shown on the 00Z run.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/WZXmptX.gif

The key is whether the long-range ensembles will show stronger ridging. Thus far the EPS and the operational EC still look "fishy." What is the likelihood that the models are wrong about the upcoming -NAO and we actually end up with strong instead of weak subtropics ridging? For this system to threaten the Islands or CONUS ridging would need to be stronger than shown on the 00Z run.

IMO, this will be come the first real Major Hurricane threat for NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and E Coast CONUS... I think the key will be 99L if it gets pushed W into Mexico or goes into Central GOM and then moves E and breaks down the ridging...

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW the 00z GFS had slightly stronger ridging.

[aspen]

The EPS ensembles develop all three invests, along with both the August 30th wave and the early September wave.

The 8/30 wave has support from the GEFS and EPS ensembles, and the OP Euro, CMC, and ICON models. Last night’s 00z ICON run finally started showing it.

There’s also solid evidence for yet another WCar system in the first few days of August, the one the GFS started showing in the long range over a week ago. It still appears on the GFS (although is barely there on the 06z run), and in the last few days has also appeared on the GEFS, CMC, and i think the EPS too.

[chris_fit]

Can someone post the 00z EPS run, including long range, from 00Z 8/25?

[AutoPenalti]

Can someone post the 00z EPS run, including long range, from 00Z 8/25?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1430509566006071305

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1430509566006071305

I was also thinking about Teddy. I remember how consistent the models in the medium-range were about a Caribbean Cruiser or a Maria 2.0, so much so that the pre-Teddy thread became the longest pre-invest thread in s2k history. Then it went through a gap in the ridge and smacked Canada as a 900 mile wide Cat 1. The setup with 97L and soon-to-be 90L reminds me of Paulette and Teddy: a high-latitude hurricane from an AEW that leaves a gap in the ridge for the MDR system to take advantage of.