ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Do we have Recon on stand-by for this system? If so, what is their flight plan?

[cycloneye]

Do we have Recon on stand-by for this system? If so, what is their flight plan?

Later today there will be a TCPOD and I assume some missions will be there for Friday and Saturday.

[Hurricane Mike]

Waking up this morning to more disturbing model trends. The GFS has now consistently shown run after run, 99L becoming a major hurricane landfall in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region. The EURO also shows 99L becoming a significant storm, and shows another powerful Cape Verde hurricane approaching the Caribbean in about a week. The EURO has also shown this for a few runs now.

I'm reminded of when Harvey was nothing more than a wave in the Caribbean, yet models began consistently showing a major hurricane approaching the Texas coast. We could have a problem here.

[ColdMiser123]

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1430538409819447299

This is what models have trended toward over the last day or so, and if observations are starting to line up with these model forecasts, then this could give higher confidence for a US impacting storm.

~90% of the GEFS/EPS now show US landfall, a stark contrast from even just two days ago.

[SoupBone]

Do we have Recon on stand-by for this system? If so, what is their flight plan?

Later today there will be a TCPOD and I assume some missions will be there for Friday and Saturday.

I try my best to not be critical and understand agencies' decisions, but this is baffling. This system has the potential to start impacting the US coast on Sunday. They should be flying today.

[MississippiWx]

Do we have Recon on stand-by for this system? If so, what is their flight plan?

Later today there will be a TCPOD and I assume some missions will be there for Friday and Saturday.

I try my best to not be critical and understand agencies' decisions, but this is baffling. This system has the potential to start impacting the US coast on Sunday. They should be flying today.

I get your point, but until there is a reasonable question if a center of circulation exists, there is no point in low-level recon. While I believe a center is beginning to consolidate near 13N 75W, it's obviously still a trof. Now, upper level dropsonde missions could be conducted before a storm consolidates, but they won't do it. I'm sure the whole premise is to conserve resources and not waste them in case the system doesn't develop.

[SoupBone]

Later today there will be a TCPOD and I assume some missions will be there for Friday and Saturday.

I try my best to not be critical and understand agencies' decisions, but this is baffling. This system has the potential to start impacting the US coast on Sunday. They should be flying today.

I get your point, but until there is a reasonable question if a center of circulation exists, there is no point in low-level recon. While I believe a center is beginning to consolidate near 13N 75W, it's obviously still a trof. Now, upper level dropsonde missions could be conducted before a storm consolidates, but they won't do it. I'm sure the whole premise is to conserve resources and not waste them in case the system doesn't develop.

This is what I was referencing, I should have been more clear. This is still very useful data for the models to have.

[Blinhart]

I try my best to not be critical and understand agencies' decisions, but this is baffling. This system has the potential to start impacting the US coast on Sunday. They should be flying today.

I get your point, but until there is a reasonable question if a center of circulation exists, there is no point in low-level recon. While I believe a center is beginning to consolidate near 13N 75W, it's obviously still a trof. Now, upper level dropsonde missions could be conducted before a storm consolidates, but they won't do it. I'm sure the whole premise is to conserve resources and not waste them in case the system doesn't develop.

This is what I was referencing, I should have been more clear. This is still very useful data for the models to have.

Yeah, I think dropsondes should be starting to be dropped from today on from when they take off and do a thorough grid drop across the GoM and make landings where possible to refuel and continue with the grid drop all across the GoM and the Caribbean, especially since models are showing future tropical activity, this data will be helpful for the current and the next few days. I know this isn't cheap but this is the time of year we need as much data as possible, they also need to do so G-IV flights for the upper level obs.

[cycloneye]

Breaking News

First mission to check 99L will be on Thursday. So SoupBone, there you have it.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1430546060305371136

[PTrackerLA]

Already becoming easy to see where 99L is consolidating on satellite. Did not expect to see this sort of organization this early.

[SoupBone]

Breaking News

First mission to check 99L will be on Thursday. So SoupBone, there you have it.

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1430546060305371136

Nice! I called in a favor.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is going to take some time to get a west wind in that region though

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely see some lower level spin near 13N and almost 76W moving NW. Convection firing with it now.

[wxman57]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

[Blown Away]

Not much history of Aug/Sept storms from @12z starting point.

[HouTXmetro]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Just yesterday we were questioning whether this would get pushed into South Texas/Mexico and go west after landfall. What a difference one day makes.

[BigB0882]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

That scares the crap out of me, coming from you. Take it back and let us have a snowy winter!!!!

[Kazmit]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Seems like the northern gulf coast has been a hotspot in the past few years.

[MississippiWx]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Seems like the northern gulf coast has been a hotspot in the past few years.

Louisiana and Florida have taken the brunt of it while we in MS have been on the fringes. Wondering if our streak of luck continues at the expense of our neighbors. I know one thing: the Lake Charles area certainly doesn't need a strong hurricane.

[wxman57]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Just yesterday we were questioning whether this would get pushed into South Texas/Mexico and go west after landfall. What a difference one day makes.

I began upping my hurricane supplies yesterday. All batteries fully charged. Only thing left for me to do is to get gas for the generator, which I won't do until a day or so before impact.