ATL: IDA - Models

[tolakram]

Is the 12Z GFS bonkers? At 48 hours I'm not seeing anything.

Earlier runs didn't either, it just sort of "appears" west of the Caymans roughly 60 hours out (somewhat detached from where 99L is tagged at now to the point where I'm not really sure it's 99L at all).

Use vorticity, the MSLP graphs only good for shock value.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is the 12Z GFS bonkers? At 48 hours I'm not seeing anything.

Wait for it... It's coming. I'm afraid with all of the model agreement this is going to be one of those quick spin ups in the GOM that could have the potential to explode.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS, 78 hours, right off the tip of the Yuacatan.

[Hurricane Mike]

Is the 12Z GFS bonkers? At 48 hours I'm not seeing anything.

Wait for it... It's coming. I'm afraid with all of the model agreement this is going to be one of those quick spin ups in the GOM that could have the potential to explode.

Very reminiscent of the models pre-Harvey.

[Steve]

If the gfs shifts notably further east this run, I am going to be skeptical. At 60hr there are still competing centers, and it seems to be latching onto an eastern one that doesn’t appear to be the primary center. I guess we will see how it evolves though

84 hours - Tip of Yucatan

[SoupBone]

Is the 12Z GFS bonkers? At 48 hours I'm not seeing anything.

Earlier runs didn't either, it just sort of "appears" west of the Caymans roughly 60 hours out (somewhat detached from where 99L is tagged at now to the point where I'm not really sure it's 99L at all).

Use vorticity, the MSLP graphs only good for shock value.

https://i.imgur.com/VQt1AKI.gif

That helps, thanks!

[SouthFLTropics]

If the gfs shifts notably further east this run, I am going to be skeptical. At 60hr there are still competing centers, and it seems to be latching onto an eastern one that doesn’t appear to be the primary center. I guess we will see how it evolves though

84 hours - Tip of Yucatan

FWIW that is slightly east of the 06z. We'll see if that makes a difference in the long run.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS 90 Hours

[Steve]

If the gfs shifts notably further east this run, I am going to be skeptical. At 60hr there are still competing centers, and it seems to be latching onto an eastern one that doesn’t appear to be the primary center. I guess we will see how it evolves though

84 hours - Tip of Yucatan

FWIW that is slightly east of the 06z. We'll see if that makes a difference in the long run.

Word. 96 hours and there's a distinct western component still with the track. +/1 24.12N, 88.75W. I'd bet somewhere between Matagora Bay and Terrebonne Bay on this run once it gets to landfall unless it stalls out or something.

[tolakram]

Still east

[Steve]

108 Hours +/- 25.9/90.6 so NWish

Edit:

114 Hours +/- 26.5/91.6

That's a turn a little more northerly but still moving NW

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The crazy thing to me watching this unfold is just how soon this is expected to occur. We're less than 5 days away from a significant hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast if the 12z GFS verifies. The system hasn't even developed yet.

[tolakram]

[SoupBone]

Between 114 and 126 hours, it starts to make a turn to the north toward Louisiana. If it continued straight it would end up on top of Houston.

[Steve]

126 Hours - Getting closer to land in the NW Gulf.
27.5N/92.73W Still moving NW

132 Hours
28.1N/93.0W

[AutoPenalti]

945mb and still bombing out...

[cheezyWXguy]

Between 114 and 126 hours, it starts to make a turn to the north toward Louisiana. If it continued straight it would end up on top of Houston.

It’s actually a hair west of the previous run at this time. The high is slightly stronger. The bend north may not be as dramatic this run.

Edit: the bend north does occur, but it is a slight shift back to the west. Landfall location will depend on how the high evolves in the final 24hr before landfall, which we won’t have a good idea of for a bit longer

[tolakram]

Apologies in advanced for switching to shock mode. Remember global model intensity rarely verifies.

[AutoPenalti]

933... holy.

Looks like Lake Charles or Lafayette?

[tolakram]

Right turn near landfall.