ATL: IDA - Models

[Kohlecane]

Stronger and only about 40 mi West of the 6Z

[SoupBone]

Between 114 and 126 hours, it starts to make a turn to the north toward Louisiana. If it continued straight it would end up on top of Houston.

It’s actually a hair west of the previous run at this time. The high is slightly stronger. The bend north may not be as dramatic this run.

It hooks hard right at 144 hours. Way too close for comfort in Houston, Lake Charles and central Louisiana would have major issues.

[Iceresistance]

Apologies in advanced for switching to shock mode. Remember global model intensity rarely verifies.

https://i.imgur.com/6l2f9Za.png

Even stronger!

[tolakram]

[skyline385]

It almost stalls before landfall, either way slows down enough for more RI

[Shell Mound]

Right turn near landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/K7Oe7DX.png

Fortunately, landfall on this run occurs over the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, one of the least populated sites in the State of Louisiana. It’s farther E than Laura’s.

[SoupBone]

Anyone see in the models what's causing that abrupt hard right hook? Is it bumping the high?

[Woofde]

The 12z run is literally Laura 2.0

[HoustonFrog]

It's just Laura. So what is the geographic/meteorological features that force hurricanes to hook hard north outside of Galveston? It's wild.

[Steve]

Anyone see in the models what's causing that abrupt hard right hook? Is it bumping the high?

Hits the western edge. Run it at 500mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=150

[Kohlecane]

Anyone see in the models what's causing that abrupt hard right hook? Is it bumping the high?

Yeah I'm a bit confused on that R turn at the end, but then again this strong of a system wobble d wobble

[aspen]

Between the Yucatán Channel and landfall, the 12z ICON gives 99L 57 hours over water, while the 12z GFS gives it 72 hours. Even the faster solution still gives 99L a dangerously high amount of time to bomb out. The best hope is that it takes longer to consolidate than shown. If 99L is a TS by the time it’s in the Yucatán Channel, the ceiling is very, very high.

[Clearcloudz]

GFS just wants to go ahead and wipe out lake Charles from Louisiana history.

[Steve]

Anyone see in the models what's causing that abrupt hard right hook? Is it bumping the high?

Yeah I'm a bit confused on that R turn at the end, but then again this strong of a system wobble d wobble

Click the link I posted a few posts up and hit play. You'll see the ridge weakens to the north considerably, and that's all the push left per GFS 12z 500mb.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/1430523385667330048

[jlauderdal]

It's just Laura. So what is the geographic/meteorological features that force hurricanes to hook hard north outside of Galveston? It's wild.

Its just following the ridge, where that ridge actually sets up is what generates massive amounts of pages on this site

[AerospaceEng]

GFS ensembles will be verrrry interesting - are they tightening up any or still all over?

[SoupBone]

GFS ensembles will be verrrry interesting - are they tightening up any or still all over?

The GEFS is running right now. Unless my eyes are off, it's pretty far north of the previous run.

[skyline385]

Anyone see in the models what's causing that abrupt hard right hook? Is it bumping the high?

Yeah I'm a bit confused on that R turn at the end, but then again this strong of a system wobble d wobble

Click the link I posted a few posts up and hit play. You'll see the ridge weakens to the north considerably, and that's all the push left per GFS 12z 500mb.

Just to add to this the ridge gets eroded by the upcoming low (which might decide when the ridge starts weakening and when 99L turns) and pulls 99L on its way.

[Steve]

All due apologies to Lafayette, Baton Rouge, Hammond and the Northshore.

GFS Rainfall Estimates through 180 hours (7pm next Wednesday)