2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

No way this will make anywhere close to EC with this lack of ridging.

https://i.imgur.com/HsODX2W.png

Lol, I have been saying this there is no central Atl ridge this season it seems. No doubt this should recurve quite easily. This is not 2017 not even close. Things can change but I just don’t see it getting past 60w.

It passed that longitud.

https://i.imgur.com/Pb00nes.png

I don’t think this is the wave the EC is developing Luis.

[cycloneye]

Are you sure Adrian?

[AutoPenalti]

But…

https://i.postimg.cc/1tM6yjXD/65751593-C8-E8-432-B-9-DBC-DE67-D2-FAE07-E.gif

The 384 hr magic trough saves the day tho.

[SFLcane]

Are you sure Adrian?

I am not sure you know that. If it is that’s a substantial shift west and ugly trend I would say.

[SouthFLTropics]

Are you sure Adrian?

I am not sure you know that. If it is that’s a substantial shift west and ugly trend I would say.

https://i.postimg.cc/DfLdNnqb/03743-E8-F-FFA8-409-E-94-AB-0650-A3228-D78.gif

Not that 384 hour forecasts mean a lot but if that run were to continue I don't see how that storm makes it to the east coast with that trough draped across the Atlantic from Florida to Bermuda.

[BobHarlem]

Canadian showing something else in the Gulf 4 days after 99L landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

Lol, I have been saying this there is no central Atl ridge this season it seems. No doubt this should recurve quite easily. This is not 2017 not even close. Things can change but I just don’t see it getting past 60w.

It passed that longitud.

https://i.imgur.com/Pb00nes.png

I don’t think this is the wave the EC is developing Luis.

It is... it's the same wave that comes from Sudan and comes off Africa a day later than the 0z Euro. The difference being that it doesn't develop as quickly as the Euro does.

[SFLcane]

Are you sure Adrian?

I am not sure you know that. If it is that’s a substantial shift west and ugly trend I would say.

https://i.postimg.cc/DfLdNnqb/03743-E8-F-FFA8-409-E-94-AB-0650-A3228-D78.gif

Not that 384 hour forecasts mean a lot but if that run were to continue I don't see how that storm makes it to the east coast with that trough draped across the Atlantic from Florida to Bermuda.

It’s the first time anything gets past 60w so this west swing intrigued me.

[AutoPenalti]

This is obviously a million years away but it gives an idea if the Euro will verify the -NAO situation, no conclusion so far as one would expect

[chris_fit]

Euro develops as soon as it splashes down...

Here it at 168, looking feisty, but a loooooong ways away and a lot of things have to 'right'/'wrong' for it to get close the EC

[Steve]

Canadian showing something else in the Gulf 4 days after 99L landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wTVUxd6.png

Yeah, that's back to back. GFS sort of shows the second wave of convection, but it loses it in the GA's. Not looking for the CMC solution to verify at this point, but it's gotten better the last couple of years.

[jlauderdal]

Euro develops as soon as it splashes down...

Here it at 168, looking feisty, but a loooooong ways away and a lot of things have to 'right'/'wrong' for it to get close the EC

https://i.imgur.com/wBt3edx.png

Big escape route for the atlantic system, probably a few weeks away for a florida threat, need to clear out the gulf system and let the ridge build back in which is very typical for post labor day

[caneseddy]

Looks like at 216 hours on the Euro ridge is starting to fill back in…

[Shell Mound]

Looks like at 216 hours on the Euro ridge is starting to fill back in…

The mid-to-upper-air pattern on the run still favours OTS, given high-latitude blocking and progressive shortwaves pirouetting. The TC turns at the very end.

[StPeteMike]

Canadian showing something else in the Gulf 4 days after 99L landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wTVUxd6.png

Models have been picking up and then dropping development around that time range. GFS days ago was making this the big one and now I think it has it struggling to get its act together. GFS also went back and forth with 99L so we shall see if anything comes behind future Ida.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 12Z EPS from hour 300 or so for the Central Atlantic?

[AutoPenalti]

It will likely come down to this shortwave trough near New Foundland the Euro develops

[SFLcane]

Anyone have the 12Z EPS from hour 300 or so for the Central Atlantic?

It’s not even close lol.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 12Z EPS from hour 300 or so for the Central Atlantic?

It’s not even close lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/gcCqzyXx/761285-E3-6206-4-C8-B-9266-670-EACF2-EB12.jpg

As expected

[SFLcane]

There’s just nothing to keep this potential system from continuing past 50w. Can it change sure but euro has been
Persistent.