ATL: IDA - Models

[tolakram]

Meanwhile the HWRF is finished.

https://i.imgur.com/FDfPLAh.png

yeah saw that...typical HWRF...destroys a major city and port. awesome

It's never been wrong, except for the last 40 or so runs.

[ColdMiser123]

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.

I'm not sure if the bolded is true or not, it might just be that the model nested view just got left behind over South America.

[mcheer23]

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.

I'm not sure if the bolded is true or not, it might just be that the model nested view just got left behind over South America.

HMON is near Houston as well.

[ROCK]

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.

UKMET has been lagging behind the major globals. I never rule out the UK, Not until those ensembles start tightening up.

[ROCK]

Meanwhile the HWRF is finished.

https://i.imgur.com/FDfPLAh.png

yeah saw that...typical HWRF...destroys a major city and port. awesome

It's never been wrong, except for the last 40 or so runs.

lol exactly....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hmmm, if these model runs verify this could be the great one of 2021. They are all showing bad outcomes for the GOM coast.

[ROCK]

964 into western Louisiana on the WxBell high resolution Euro.

No doubt there will be some pretty extreme EPS solutions given what the operational just put out.

Euro showing rapid intensification on approach as well it seems

yeah bc its traversing 32C water. Thats like roids for a Hurricane. I would get puffy also.

[catskillfire51]

[SteveM]

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.

UKMET has been lagging behind the major globals. I never rule out the UK, Not until those ensembles start tightening up.

It seems to have been the best performer this season, so far.

[ROCK]

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.

UKMET has been lagging behind the major globals. I never rule out the UK, Not until those ensembles start tightening up.

It seems to have been the best performer this season, so far.

o maybe its just slow to see the upper air dynamics 5 days from now. IDK....It has lagged before this season and has adjusted right the past 3-4 runs with 99L. I have seen the NHC lean out it also in the past. Just have to see next run.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not sure how accurate this is, but the HWRF shows about 5 kts of shear over the center when it is approaching Galveston.

[Steve]

This afternoon has a pretty big spread track wise, but almost all models went stronger. Operational GFS/EURO are Louisiana Monday evening, ensembles weighted left of there. HMON loses it, HWRF almost loses it but then sticks a Cat 3 heading into Galveston Island. UK Is still southern Texas.

UKMET has been lagging behind the major globals. I never rule out the UK, Not until those ensembles start tightening up.

It seems to have been the best performer this season, so far.

Sometimes it is in certain windows of time. Other times its' an extreme outlier that rarely verifies until it comes in line with the rest of the globals. We've seen this over the last several years. It has scored a couple of coups, but I think those are remembered more by people than when it's in outlier phase. FWIW, the JMA is similar to the UKMET in that it is more aimed at south Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=144

[SoupBone]

12Z Navgem west of the previous run

[Iceresistance]

Hmmm, if these model runs verify this could be the great one of 2021. They are all showing bad outcomes for the GOM coast.

Or one of big ones in 2021, the Euro is hinting a strong Cape Verde system for the last several runs . . .

[kevin]

Hmmm, if these model runs verify this could be the great one of 2021. They are all showing bad outcomes for the GOM coast.

Or one of big ones in 2021, the Euro is hinting a strong Cape Verde system for the last several runs . . .

I wouldn't be surprised if this starts a string of strong peak season hurricanes (similar to Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria in 2017) considering the favorable environment and long-term TC development in the ensembles.

[hurricane2025]

Hmon is little south of hwrf by Galveston

[ROCK]

UKMET has been lagging behind the major globals. I never rule out the UK, Not until those ensembles start tightening up.

It seems to have been the best performer this season, so far.

Sometimes it is in certain windows of time. Other times its' an extreme outlier that rarely verifies until it comes in line with the rest of the globals. We've seen this over the last several years. It has scored a couple of coups, but I think those are remembered more by people than when it's in outlier phase. FWIW, the JMA is similar to the UKMET in that it is more aimed at south Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=144

thanks Steve...I concur. Nice JMA shout out!! love that model bc it makes me think of PJ sandwich...lol...

[BobHarlem]

UKMET has been lagging behind the major globals. I never rule out the UK, Not until those ensembles start tightening up.

It seems to have been the best performer this season, so far.

Sometimes it is in certain windows of time. Other times its' an extreme outlier that rarely verifies until it comes in line with the rest of the globals. We've seen this over the last several years. It has scored a couple of coups, but I think those are remembered more by people than when it's in outlier phase. FWIW, the JMA is similar to the UKMET in that it is more aimed at south Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=144

Irma was the big one the UK did well on, even when the others were calling for a S. Fl hit or east coast raker. However Irma was also a lot more developed than 99L is at the time.

[Woofde]

It certainly feels like it has been a long while since we've seen such consistency and agreement from virtually all the models. Rarely do they agree that a storm 5 days+ will be so impactful.

[Steve]

It seems to have been the best performer this season, so far.

Sometimes it is in certain windows of time. Other times its' an extreme outlier that rarely verifies until it comes in line with the rest of the globals. We've seen this over the last several years. It has scored a couple of coups, but I think those are remembered more by people than when it's in outlier phase. FWIW, the JMA is similar to the UKMET in that it is more aimed at south Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=144

Irma was the big one the UK did well on, even when the others were calling for a S. Fl hit or east coast raker. However Irma was also a lot more developed than 99L is at the time.

It was. Ivan as well (Part 2). It's hit a few others too. But it's been woefully off so many times outside of 72 hours that it's hard to take say when it's more likely to be right.