ATL: IDA - Models

[Clearcloudz]

18Z ICON Run

[IcyTundra]

The ICON has this making landfall 1 PM central time on Monday think the ICON is a little off in the timing as I think this is going to be a Tuesday morning landfall.

[Frank P]

18z ICON shifted east a tad towards central LA coast… last three ICON runs trended east… we have a long way to go before this forecast gets locked in… going to be an interesting system to track both for forecast and intensity… it’s late August baby and the games afoot… along with the heat!

[hurricane2025]

It’s the icon

[IcyTundra]

It’s the icon

True it performed very poorly with Henri and Grace.

[aspen]

It’s the icon

It has its rare moments, and at least it’s well in line with the GFS and Euro consensus. It’s not like it’s the sole model showing a stall and turn towards Florida.

[Wampadawg]

18z ICON shifted east a tad towards central LA coast… last three ICON runs trended east… we have a long way to go before this forecast gets locked in… going to be an interesting system to track both for forecast and intensity… it’s late August baby and the games afoot… along with the heat!

I thought it shifted west a tad

[ROCK]

It’s the icon

this!! the NAVGEM might even be better...lol

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GFS .....

[Frank P]

18z ICON shifted east a tad towards central LA coast… last three ICON runs trended east… we have a long way to go before this forecast gets locked in… going to be an interesting system to track both for forecast and intensity… it’s late August baby and the games afoot… along with the heat!

I thought it shifted west a tad

Go to Tropical tidbits and compare the 06z, 12z and 18z runs and you will see the shifts east

[Steve]

It’s the icon

this!! the NAVGEM might even be better...lol

Haha. No way. ICON was solid showing genesis last year where major models had nothing. It happened several times. If 1 is great and 5 dismal, I’d give it 2.75-3 (below average). But NAVGEM is like. 4.6.

[Frank P]

It’s the icon

this!! the NAVGEM might even be better...lol

Haha. No way. ICON was solid showing genesis last year where major models had nothing. It happened several times. If 1 is great and 5 dismal, I’d give it 2.75-3 (below average). But NAVGEM is like. 4.6.

Oh man the NAVGEM is not much better the Clips… hahaha

[Clearcloudz]

She wanna touch Cuba, New Orleans get ready this ones for you.

[skyline385]

18Z GFS definitely more NE so far

[Clearcloudz]

Florida you guys gonna get front row seats for this one

[loon]

lol at 60hz its going almost due north. florida ? or GFS off the rocker? they all seem to think that ridge is gonna go poof. whew i feel for the NHC on this one heh

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS is WAY more north and east of the previous run. I wonder where it'll hit that high then slide off NW.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS will be interesting operational GFS insists on a SW Louisiana hit but for recent runs the GEFS mean is still to the south and west of Galveston.

[aspen]

That’s a MASSIVE east shift in the 18z GFS. Seems to be due to 99L becoming a TC quite quickly, by Friday afternoon while just south of Cuba.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS is going to put it right over the loop current