ATL: IDA - Models

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IcyTundra
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#361 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:07 pm

Starting to bend to the west will probably show another Louisiana hit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#362 Postby Clearcloudz » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#363 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:07 pm

I literally just posted in the discussion thread that I think this is going to shift east since it is coming together so quickly. It's still early in the game but this game is moving fast. Anyone on the gulf coast should be ready for a significant hit within the next 5-6 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#364 Postby Javlin » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:09 pm

loon wrote:lol at 60hz its going almost due north. florida ? or GFS off the rocker? they all seem to think that ridge is gonna go poof. whew i feel for the NHC on this one heh

Observe what has happened today movement has been NNW the N blob appears to have won ATTM the TUTT to the N seems to be aiding this movement.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#365 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:10 pm

18Z GFS due south of the mouth of the Mississippi River...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#366 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:10 pm

Looks like 18z GFS is heading toward E. Louisiana now, and a heck of a lot faster, almost a whole day sooner than 12z.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#367 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:10 pm

These models are all fine and good, but I wouldn’t take anything too literally until at least tomorrow. Until a consolidated center has formed, there will be considerable variation between runs and models. I believe this is the main reason for the large spread on the ensembles. Plus, the recon data we get tomorrow may alter things further.

This is a tough situation because more time is needed to nail this down, but by the time it is, it may not be enough time to keep people from being caught off guard. But I guess that’s the case with most landfalling majors, isn’t it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#368 Postby Clearcloudz » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:10 pm

New Orleans she coming to dance with you for mardi gras

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#369 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:11 pm

The warmest waters are in the western GOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#370 Postby Frank P » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:11 pm

GFS heading straight for NOLA as a powerful cane? Wtf is going on..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#371 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:11 pm

Not buying this GFS run has it moving way to fast I would be shocked if this makes landfall on Sunday night like the 18Z GFS is showing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#372 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:12 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#373 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:12 pm

I agree this GFS run is on hyperspeed which seems wholely unrealistic at this point.
Last edited by SoupBone on Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#374 Postby Clearcloudz » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:13 pm

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Last edited by Clearcloudz on Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#375 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:13 pm

GFS is 954mb into South Eastern Louisiana :double: , it's much faster too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#376 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:13 pm

They would need to issue Hurricane Watches for NOLA like... tonight
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#377 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:14 pm

18Z GFS has it making landfall 42 hours earlier than the 12Z run. Moving way to fast toss this run out unless it starts to string a couple runs together where it also does that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#378 Postby Javlin » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:14 pm


Well lets wait and see what pans out in the next 36hrs but that's a K redux!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#379 Postby ronyan » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:15 pm

At this rate, by tomorrow it will show it hooking out into the Atlantic barely grazing south florida. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#380 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:16 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:They would need to issue Hurricane Watches for NOLA like... tonight


Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of TS force winds. It's Wednesday and this is projected to be near the coast Monday morning.
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