ATL: IDA - Models

[Keldeo1997]

hmmm

[IcyTundra]

They would need to issue Hurricane Watches for NOLA like... tonight

Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of TS force winds. It's Wednesday and this is projected to be near the coast Monday morning.

18Z GFS actually has it making landfall 7 PM central time Sunday night compared to 12Z GFS which had it making landfall around 12 PM on Tuesday.

[SoupBone]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/880213892326891551/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh102_trend.gif


hmmm

Yeah, I'm sorry, as much as I don't want that system on top of me, that far east, that fast, with that intensity seems WAY OFF. How would it maintain its structure booking it like that?

[HoustonFrog]

How can a hurricane speed up by ~42 hours??

[aspen]

The GFS went from being one of the slowest solutions to one of the fastest between just two runs. The 18z run only gives 99L 30 hours between Cuba and Louisiana, which would really put a lid on how much it can intensify. I wonder why there’s such a significant speed difference.

[IcyTundra]

How much fast would the average forward speed have to be for this to get to SE LA by Sunday night like the 18Z GFS is showing? That would be booking it.

[Woofde]

How can a hurricane speed up by ~42 hours??

The 12z run had it stall, the 18z doesn't.

[Javlin]

They would need to issue Hurricane Watches for NOLA like... tonight

Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of TS force winds. It's Wednesday and this is projected to be near the coast Monday morning.

18Z GFS actually has it making landfall 7 PM central time Sunday night compared to 12Z GFS which had it making landfall around 12 PM on Tuesday.

I agree it seems a little fast but also consider that it's has the system taking the shortest route possible .The long side of the R triangle has been significantly reduced=time.

[Nederlander]

This run seems suspicious… it initialized much further north, near Jamaica. We’ll have to wait and see if it’s sniffing out something or just a bad run.

I agree with the sentiment that until a center forms, it’s hard to establish any real sense of confidence in these runs

[ronyan]

18z Sunday forecast is ~700 miles off what it was 42hr ago.

[grapealcoholic]

Ensemble is coming in much farther north as well

[HoustonFrog]

How much fast would the average forward speed have to be for this to get to SE LA by Sunday night like the 18Z GFS is showing? That would be booking it.

From Cuba to Louisiana I've got it going 17mph. About 630 miles in 37 hours

[IcyTundra]

We will see what the 18Z GEFS has to say. My suspicion is that the operational is still on the eastern edge of the ensemble spread and the operational will be much faster moving than the ensemble mean.

[Tireman4]

The Houston/Galveston NWS talks about the flip/flopping of the models in today's AFD..

Continue to closely monitor the official National Hurricane Center forecasts
as they take into account the differing model solutions and their associated
strengths, weaknesses and weaknesses. Now is the time to review your
hurricane preparedness plans/kits to make sure they are up to date.

[Woofde]

At 72hr the ensemble package is already a decent bit further North.

[Kazmit]

Next GFS run it will reach Tampa by Friday night.

[supercane4867]

The GFS went from being one of the slowest solutions to one of the fastest between just two runs. The 18z run only gives 99L 30 hours between Cuba and Louisiana, which would really put a lid on how much it can intensify. I wonder why there’s such a significant speed difference.

FWIW, the fastest-moving tropical system ever recorded in the Gulf is Nate 2017 which only took 24 hours to get from Yucatan Channel to the Northern Gulf Coast. I highly doubt any system can replicate such speed in the month of August

[SoupBone]

Ensemble is coming in much farther north as well

North and consolidated, at least at the 84 hour mark. Not a huge spread yet.

[Woofde]

The GFS went from being one of the slowest solutions to one of the fastest between just two runs. The 18z run only gives 99L 30 hours between Cuba and Louisiana, which would really put a lid on how much it can intensify. I wonder why there’s such a significant speed difference.

FWIW, the fastest-moving tropical system ever recorded in the Gulf is Nate 2017 which only took 24 hours to get from Yucatan Channel to the Northern Gulf Coast. I highly doubt any system can replicate such speed in the month of August

Nate was quite the speedster. Though that forward speed didn't stop it from intensifying. I doubt it will for this system either.

[SoupBone]

at 96hours, still clustered pretty good and headed toward Louisiana, mostly.