ATL: IDA - Models

[grapealcoholic]

[img]blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/730a3d05-d077-4fdd-9af1-0a47a02e5a3a[/img]

[SoupBone]

Starting to spread a bit at 108.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with everyone. That latest GFS model is on drugs......There's no way it's going to be knocking on the gulf states door Sunday Night.........

[Nederlander]

at 96hours, still clustered pretty good and headed toward Louisiana, mostly.

https://i.imgur.com/yhApzqp.png

Yeah, looking at the ensembles, it seems a key indicator might be where it crosses the Yucatán channel at.. by Cuba = E. LA…. Clipping the Yucatán Peninsula = TX/LA.

Either way, the operational is still on the far eastern edge of the ensembles.

[SoupBone]

So the GEFS very much has SETX still in play with many members also focusing on that area. But they are starting to cluster a lot more than previous runs. A little concerning.

[SoupBone]

at 96hours, still clustered pretty good and headed toward Louisiana, mostly.

https://i.imgur.com/yhApzqp.png

Yeah, looking at the ensembles, it seems a key indicator might be where it crosses the Yucatán channel at.. by Cuba = E. LA…. Clipping the Yucatán Peninsula = TX/LA.

Either way, the operational is still on the far eastern edge of the ensembles.

True, but the ensembles have been following the GFS, not the other way around. Or at least it appears that they are playing catch up, if that makes sense. It moves east, they move east.

[bella_may]

Remind me again why so many were discounting the eastern shifts this morning? It’s like people never learn. Same thing happened with Zeta

[ronjon]

Starting to think now anywhere from central La to western Florida panhandle might be in play for a potential landfall. If I were in Gulfport or Mobile, I'd definitely start paying attention. Seems La.most likely now but the strength of that 500 mb ridge and speed of that midwest trough are changing things up now. Plus if the northern part of the wave develops near west Cuba. Interesting weekend ahead.

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/jones_treyce/status ... 52320?s=21

[cheezyWXguy]

So the GEFS very much has SETX still in play with many members also focusing on that area. But they are starting to cluster a lot more than previous runs. A little concerning.

From what I can see, there are 3 distinct clusters. The first cluster is the fastest, and shoots up to Louisiana, following the op. The second one is slower, and further to the west, centered near the tx/la border, with several members on the tx side. The third one is the slowest, and bends the furthest west, then bends back north favoring Texas. This is concerning if you’re in Texas or SW Louisiana, because the first cluster and the op are way too fast.

[tolakram]

Starting to think now anywhere from central La to western Florida panhandle might be in play for a potential landfall. If I were in Gulfport or Mobile, I'd definitely start paying attention. Seems La.most likely now but the strength of that 500 mb ridge and speed of that midwest trough are changing things up now. Plus if the northern part of the wave develops near west Cuba. Interesting weekend ahead.

If rapid development noted south of Jamaica is real and not a head fake then I'd say redo models from scratch, but further east seems to be most likely.

[captainbarbossa19]

It looks like the GFS initializes the center around 15.8 N which is way too far north. So far, it looks like it's consolidating closer to 14 N. I think this run is most likely lousy.

[Steve]

18Z ICON hits around Marsh Island (Vermilion/Iberia Patishes) Monday day.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82518&fh=6

[SoupBone]

So the GEFS very much has SETX still in play with many members also focusing on that area. But they are starting to cluster a lot more than previous runs. A little concerning.

From what I can see, there are 3 distinct clusters. The first cluster is the fastest, and shoots up to Louisiana, following the op. The second one is slower, and further to the west, centered near the tx/la border, with several members on the tx side. The third one is the slowest, and bends the furthest west, then bends back north favoring Texas. This is concerning if you’re in Texas or SW Louisiana, because the first cluster and the op are way too fast.

Take a look at the discussion thread. It does appear to be developing faster and more north at the moment. This would mean that the models picking up on a more easterly path might be right. I'm skeptical with you about the speed but so far, it could be right.

[Javlin]

Starting to think now anywhere from central La to western Florida panhandle might be in play for a potential landfall. If I were in Gulfport or Mobile, I'd definitely start paying attention. Seems La.most likely now but the strength of that 500 mb ridge and speed of that midwest trough are changing things up now. Plus if the northern part of the wave develops near west Cuba. Interesting weekend ahead.

If rapid development noted south of Jamaica is real and not a head fake then I'd say redo models from scratch, but further east seems to be most likely.

It can not go trough a TUTT that is now about 22'N which I think is aiding the NNW movement ATTM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[Javlin]

It looks like the GFS initializes the center around 15.8 N which is way too far north. So far, it looks like it's consolidating closer to 14 N. I think this run is most likely lousy.

I could see a center of rotation not a true COC per-say @15N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[jabman98]

Wasn't there a model run earlier today that showed it stalling a bit before landfall? Sorry, can't remember which one.

[skyline385]

lol look at HMON go, Cat 1/2 by the time it hits Cuba

[Nimbus]

lol look at HMON go, Cat 1/2 by the time it hits Cuba

We keep tipping the waitress

[Kohlecane]

lol look at HMON go, Cat 1/2 by the time it hits Cuba

Never say never at this point, take a look at 97L it's looking good earlier than the models indicated it. Also Hwrf run at 12z had a TS-low end near Jamaica so maybe, I just don't see the environment that favorable until the Channel