ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Not to sure about that, they can always move up intensity as the day and advisories go on. Very rarely do they ever throw the M on there right off the bat, I could be wrong but not from what I can recall with a highly likely LF storm, seen it with OTS and MDR storms though of of first advisories with a cone!

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

Hurricane Iota in 2020 with 110 mph winds expected at landfall

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[kevin]

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

Hurricane Iota in 2020 with 110 mph winds expected at landfall

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Thank you that was the one. Got it mixed up with Teddy. Guess there were just too many storms last year .

[SouthFLTropics]

My gut tells me that this may end up much further east than what is currently being shown. Based on visible satellite this thing is coming together really quick. I would think that if it develops sooner than expected it may go poleward earlier.

[IcyTundra]

My gut tells me that this may end up much further east than what is currently being shown. Based on visible satellite this thing is coming together really quick. I would think that if it develops sooner than expected it may go poleward earlier.

Maybe..... I don't see this getting any further east than the LA/MS border.

[Blinhart]

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

Hurricane Iota in 2020 with 110 mph winds expected at landfall

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Since this won't most likely be classified until tomorrow, I won't be shocked to see them go with a Major at landfall since it will be a making landfall within 5 days. The NHC will put a M on their forecast if every single model continues showing that a Major will be making landfall.

[kevin]

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

Hurricane Iota in 2020 with 110 mph winds expected at landfall

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Since this won't most likely be classified until tomorrow, I won't be shocked to see them go with a Major at landfall since it will be a making landfall within 5 days. The NHC will put a M on their forecast if every single model continues showing that a Major will be making landfall.

Could be, but it would be unprecedented. Iota was only 72 hours away from landfall with big model support for at least a cat 4 and even then they didn't do it. Idk, I think they might go with 90 or 95 kt and wait for 1 or 2 runs after the system has consolidated. However, if there was ever a storm to go major on in advisory #1 this might be the one (if the models continue pumping out cat 3+).

[SoupBone]

Levi with the hot take. This would definitely play into the latest GFS run.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430658383867105283

[Woofde]

Levi with the hot take. This would definitely play into the latest GFS run.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430658383867105283

The tropics never cease to amaze me with how dynamic and quick changing things are. Two days ago this looked to be a slow moving Mexico system, now we are talking about it potentially being a faster central Gulf system.

[IcyTundra]

Levi with the hot take. This would definitely play into the latest GFS run.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430658383867105283

Hopefully he's right because it would give it much less time over water thus making the storm more likely to be weaker than what previous model runs have been show.

[Kohlecane]

Levi with the hot take. This would definitely play into the latest GFS run.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430658383867105283

Hopefully he's right because it would give it much less time over water thus making the storm more likely to be weaker than what previous model runs have been show.

Or the opposite could be said, earlier development stronger structure going into GOM, however I'M still not buying a M with the new runs kind of speek unless shear is nil the whole ride

[tolakram]

RGB loop as it gets dark.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-200-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[BobHarlem]

Grand Cayman or Cuba would need a watch like now if anything did pop early.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Kohlecane]

RGB loop as it gets dark.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-200-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wow big difference from yesterday's loop I set, looks to be really trying to get it's act together quickly, Levi is on to it with the newest runs

[Zonacane]

TCG looks to be occuring now

[aspen]

Levi with the hot take. This would definitely play into the latest GFS run.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430658383867105283

Hopefully he's right because it would give it much less time over water thus making the storm more likely to be weaker than what previous model runs have been show.

Or the opposite could be said, earlier development stronger structure going into GOM, however I'M still not buying a M with the new runs kind of speek unless shear is nil the whole ride

I’m suspicious about how fast the 18z GFS run is when compared to everything else. As others have mentioned, that would rival Nate for the fastest GoM system ever recorded, and it’s such a deviation from the other models. I don’t know if any of the current steering factors could even produce such a high forward motion.

[Nederlander]

saved loop
https://imgur.com/Cylee7F

Center might be trying to form around 14.2N 76.2W

[aspen]

This should be PTC-9 sometime tomorrow morning if these trends continue. Watches and warnings could be required for parts of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Yucatán due to 99L passing near those locations within 48 hours of the 5am or 11am advisory times.

[Kohlecane]

This should be PTC-9 sometime tomorrow morning if these trends continue. Watches and warnings could be required for parts of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Yucatán due to 99L passing near those locations within 48 hours of the 5am or 11am advisory times.

couldn't agree more on that, crazy never thought I would root for a PTC designation , who knows maybe it bypasses it

[skyline385]

Levi with the hot take. This would definitely play into the latest GFS run.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430658383867105283

Not the GFS but look at 18Z HMON, Cat 1/2 by the time it reaches Cuba...