Texas Summer 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#401 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:09 pm

12z GEPS is really showing the system into Texas & Louisiana . . .

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#402 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:19 pm

The euro op shifted to Louisiana but the EPS is all over Texas again
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#403 Postby lukem » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:27 pm

18z GFS staying consistent with the landfall location somewhere in the Corpus vicinity. Predicting a pretty nasty storm...
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#404 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:29 pm

:eek:

Image

And it's only 6-7 Days out . . .
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#405 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:45 pm

That GFS run was absolutely horrible :double: basically like Harvey
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#406 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:15 pm

Brent wrote:That GFS run was absolutely horrible :double: basically like Harvey


Yeah.. screw that!
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#407 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:51 pm

There's hardly any members of the 18z GEFS aiming 99L into Mexico anymore, I'm afraid that Texas is the new target . . . :eek:

Image

Lowest Pressures from the members (I don't know which one) are 942 MB, 927 MB, & 940 MB
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#408 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:53 pm

Iceresistance wrote:There's hardly any members of the 18z GEFS aiming 99L into Mexico anymore, I'm afraid that Texas is the new target . . . :eek:

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh108-246.gif

Lowest Pressures from the members (I don't know which one) are 942 MB, 927 MB, & 940 MB


I think Louisiana is under the gun now as well. These models could still easily shift into LA.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#409 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:58 pm

A college friend just moved to Corpus like two weeks ago.

I normally don’t pay attention to these systems much since it’s either Mexico or east of Houston.

This looks different and has potential to be bad for TX…
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#410 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:24 am

Id get supplies and gas before Friday. The GFS and Euro has the high pressure in the SE collapsing, hence the shift to LA
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#411 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:38 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Id get supplies and gas before Friday. The GFS and Euro has the high pressure in the SE collapsing, hence the shift to LA


As soon as I saw the 12z Euro yesterday, I figured the models would shift into LA. I’m not too concerned about it here in Wharton County at the moment.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#412 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:59 pm

Wonder why LA is such a magnet.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#413 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Id get supplies and gas before Friday. The GFS and Euro has the high pressure in the SE collapsing, hence the shift to LA


As soon as I saw the 12z Euro yesterday, I figured the models would shift into LA. I’m not too concerned about it here in Wharton County at the moment.


Don't let your guard down...
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#414 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:48 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Id get supplies and gas before Friday. The GFS and Euro has the high pressure in the SE collapsing, hence the shift to LA


As soon as I saw the 12z Euro yesterday, I figured the models would shift into LA. I’m not too concerned about it here in Wharton County at the moment.


Don't let your guard down...


I’m no longer concerned about it.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#415 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:50 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
As soon as I saw the 12z Euro yesterday, I figured the models would shift into LA. I’m not too concerned about it here in Wharton County at the moment.


Don't let your guard down...


I’m no longer concerned about it.
It hasn't developed yet.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#416 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:53 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Wonder why LA is such a magnet.


Because of the way ridges and troughs setup. Steering currents highly favor LA landfalls.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#417 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:56 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
Don't let your guard down...


I’m no longer concerned about it.
It hasn't developed yet.


There would have to be a huge shift back west for me to be worried about it. Even if it goes in towards Galveston I wouldn’t have any impacts from it where I’m located one hour southwest of Houston. Now if it goes in around Freeport to Corpus then yeah I would have impacts.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#418 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:28 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I’m no longer concerned about it.
It hasn't developed yet.


There would have to be a huge shift back west for me to be worried about it. Even if it goes in towards Galveston I wouldn’t have any impacts from it where I’m located one hour southwest of Houston. Now if it goes in around Freeport to Corpus then yeah I would have impacts.
There might be an outflow from 95E might keep 99L from getting strong.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#419 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:40 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:It hasn't developed yet.


There would have to be a huge shift back west for me to be worried about it. Even if it goes in towards Galveston I wouldn’t have any impacts from it where I’m located one hour southwest of Houston. Now if it goes in around Freeport to Corpus then yeah I would have impacts.
There might be an outflow from 95E might keep 99L from getting strong.


Yeah that’s definitely on the table. I would love for a tropical storm to come straight towards me and dump about 10” on me. That would be my preference haha. Anything over a cat 1 for me though would be a hard no. I’d rather not have my house damaged or destroyed and be without power for weeks.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#420 Postby ZeroGee » Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_11.png


Um, 50 knots over hardwood tree forests is VERY WORRYING! It would topple a LOT of them!



Yeah, don’t disagree with Iceresistance or he’ll message you claiming his close relationship with the mods here is the only reason you haven’t been kicked off.

Typing this deep in the hardwood forests of North Dallas.
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