ATL: IDA - Models

[jaguars_22]

I’m almost wondering if the gfs is detecting 2 storms out of this mess and that may be why it’s having a hard time. Because a little later in the model run another storm forms in the same area and heads towards Texas! Also how can the gfs plow through a ULL?

[SoupBone]

18Z Euro is right off the tip of western Cuba at 57 hours and consolidating.

[tolakram]

[BobHarlem]

[tolakram]

I’m almost wondering if the gfs is detecting 2 storms out of this mess and that may be why it’s having a hard time. Because a little later in the model run another storm forms in the same area and heads towards Texas! Also how can the gfs plow through a ULL?

That makes sense. This storm, and the gyre possibly spitting out more.

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/8EaLtxk.png

Holy crap. If that were to verify, even as far west as Houston would feel this thing.

[tolakram]

Regardless of development timing we still have remarkable model agreement for landfall within a 200 mile range. Not saying more shifts east aren't possible though.

[aspen]

99L has exactly 48 hours between crossing over Cuba and making landfall in Louisiana. That’s a concerning amount of time and plenty to bomb out, especially if it’s coming in as a strong TS or a weak hurricane.

These runs give me vibes of Michael, Laura, and Delta all meshed together.

[tolakram]

18z euro lines up very well with the HWRF

[sma10]

There seems to be several incredulous comments about how far eastward the models have shifted, but I think it is easily explained by the models sensing a more immediate and rapid development, which often tends to shift the track towards the right.

[tolakram]

[SoupBone]

So at 90 hours, the 18Z Euro is in the central GOM, and if you extrapolate its trajectory it looks like a central to SWLA Louisana landfall.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1430574955465478147




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1430684559788711942

[Frank P]

Regardless of development timing we still have remarkable model agreement for landfall within a 200 mile range. Not saying more shifts east aren't possible though.

Both the 18z HWRF and HMON model runs had huge shifts east from their 12z run…

[sma10]

99L has exactly 48 hours between crossing over Cuba and making landfall in Louisiana. That’s a concerning amount of time and plenty to bomb out, especially if it’s coming in as a strong TS or a weak hurricane.

These runs give me vibes of Michael, Laura, and Delta all meshed together.

I wrote this earlier, but the true analog, according to the current modeling at least, is Camille (W. Carib development in Aug, swing around W tip of Cuba, rapid strengthening)

[tolakram]

Regardless of development timing we still have remarkable model agreement for landfall within a 200 mile range. Not saying more shifts east aren't possible though.

Both the 18z HWRF and HMON model runs had huge shifts east from their 12z run…

I see that as a correction, not a shift. They both had landfalls well west of every other model. My opinion anyway.

[tolakram]

Last frame of the 18z euro

[bella_may]

Sorry, years of posting here and I still don’t know how to properly embed a tweet. But the GFS ensembles have significantly went east https://twitter.com/anthonymweather/sta ... 03202?s=21

[captainbarbossa19]

I see all these models as generally not very helpful until we have a defined center. These models are having huge swings considering we were just talking about a southern or central Mexico landfall the other day. Now we are talking about SE Louisiana or Mississippi? Crazy.

[jlauderdal]

I see all these models as generally not very helpful until we have a defined center. These models are having huge swings considering we were just talking about a southern or central Mexico landfall the other day. Now we are talking about SE Louisiana or Mississippi? Crazy.

There is decent agreement in houston to new orleans,more likely a LA storm, i would start preps tomorrow in LA, gas for the genny first.