Shell Mound wrote:caneseddy wrote:Looks like at 216 hours on the Euro ridge is starting to fill back in…
The mid-to-upper-air pattern on the run still favours OTS, given high-latitude blocking and progressive shortwaves pirouetting. The TC turns at the very end.
If that set-up were static then yes out to sea would be a reasonable conclusion. On the other hand, one could make the case for that CONUS ridge expanding eastward and being bridged by the westward building W Atlantic mid level heights. I'm pretty sure that neither one of us are that adept at forecasting those subtleties 10 days + out. Even at a 7 day range I feel safer deferring to overall recent pattern persistence then model forecast reliability. Given the broadly stubborn ridging over the Canadian maritimes extending south over the Eastern Seaboard into the W Atlantic, I'd guess this system could pose a potential risk to the Carolina's.