ATL: IDA - Models

[ColdMiser123]

18z Euro following the rest of the 18z guidance, a bit stronger and farther NE compared to 12z.

[Clearcloudz]

Everybody in Texas after seeing recent Trends.

[tolakram]

I see all these models as generally not very helpful until we have a defined center. These models are having huge swings considering we were just talking about a southern or central Mexico landfall the other day. Now we are talking about SE Louisiana or Mississippi? Crazy.

No, we're getting closer to genesis and landfall. Models are latching onto a northerly development and more north / east path. Nothing is impossible, Texas should never let their guard down, but those in LA should make sure they have a plan ASAP.

[jaguars_22]

The way it looks Texas is officially off the hook god bless you all on central gulf coast! Beaumont to alabama

[CrazyC83]

The way it looks Texas is officially off the hook god bless you all on central gulf coast! Beaumont to alabama

WAY too premature to say that.

[cycloneye]

Shear will be low.

* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992021 08/26/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 63 74 81 89 93 89 84 78 76 78
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 63 74 81 89 93 70 41 31 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 53 61 73 84 89 69 41 31 28 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 3 4 6 9 18 10 10 10 12 17 14 14 16 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 2 0 -1 4 -7 0 1 2 0 4 0 7 3 11
SHEAR DIR 201 218 290 297 209 261 221 297 287 322 278 271 246 249 279 316 285
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 29.1 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.5 31.8 32.5 32.4 31.6 31.1 31.1
POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 141 141 155 148 156 168 171 170 171 172 171 169 169
ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 138 137 135 149 139 144 153 160 170 171 172 171 151 151
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 7 4 10 2 9
700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 73 74 72 74 70 72 72 71 71 69 66 57 50 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 13 15 15 20 25 28 31 27 24 19 16 16
850 MB ENV VOR 98 94 91 89 82 69 65 24 45 20 18 -4 18 12 66 40 4
200 MB DIV 102 95 85 78 74 74 68 30 69 40 38 49 59 57 6 0 -18
700-850 TADV 3 5 6 7 9 8 4 6 5 4 11 9 5 1 5 3 -6
LAND (KM) 404 375 357 328 315 302 211 85 212 400 207 72 -32 -258 -515 -629 -603
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 77.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 8 12 10 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 36 42 40 37 31 43 119 35 24 39 56 54 23 8 7 6 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 36. 40. 42. 44. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 12. 17. 22. 25. 19. 12. 5. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 33. 44. 51. 59. 63. 59. 54. 48. 46. 48.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 77.0

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.0% 10.6% 8.7% 6.5% 11.0% 18.9% 28.4%
Logistic: 2.5% 14.3% 7.7% 3.3% 0.8% 4.1% 6.0% 8.7%
Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 7.0% 2.6%
Consensus: 2.5% 10.7% 6.4% 4.0% 2.4% 5.3% 10.6% 13.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/26/2021 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 63 74 81 89 93 70 41 31 28 27
18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 48 55 60 71 78 86 90 67 38 28 25 24
12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 49 54 65 72 80 84 61 32 22 19 18
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 44 55 62 70 74 51 22 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[captainbarbossa19]

The way it looks Texas is officially off the hook god bless you all on central gulf coast! Beaumont to alabama

WAY too premature to say that.

That's what I was thinking, but I wanted a pro met to say it. This was only one series of model runs and they featured generally large shifts in the track.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see all these models as generally not very helpful until we have a defined center. These models are having huge swings considering we were just talking about a southern or central Mexico landfall the other day. Now we are talking about SE Louisiana or Mississippi? Crazy.

No, we're getting closer to genesis and landfall. Models are latching onto a northerly development and more north / east path. Nothing is impossible, Texas should never let their guard down, but those in LA should make sure they have a plan ASAP.

I’m still not convinced there’s been much increase in confidence today. Focusing on the clustering of models within a given suite ignores the variability that clearly still exists as denoted by the ensemble spreads and large shifts occurring between suites. I agree things look better for Texas now than they did 18 hours ago, but the fact that there isn’t much inter-suite continuity means it’s probably a bit early to be suggesting that a westward shift is so unlikely

[SoupBone]

I see all these models as generally not very helpful until we have a defined center. These models are having huge swings considering we were just talking about a southern or central Mexico landfall the other day. Now we are talking about SE Louisiana or Mississippi? Crazy.

No, we're getting closer to genesis and landfall. Models are latching onto a northerly development and more north / east path. Nothing is impossible, Texas should never let their guard down, but those in LA should make sure they have a plan ASAP.

I’m still not convinced there’s been much increase in confidence today. Focusing on the clustering of models within a given suite ignores the variability that clearly still exists as denoted by the ensemble spreads and large shifts occurring between suites. I agree things look better for Texas now than they did 18 hours ago, but the fact that there isn’t much inter-suite continuity means it’s probably a bit early to be suggesting that a westward shift is so unlikely

All I'm going to say is that just 3 short days ago, the GFS (in at least 10 consecutive runs) put this system into either south or central Mexico. That is all.

[captainbarbossa19]

No, we're getting closer to genesis and landfall. Models are latching onto a northerly development and more north / east path. Nothing is impossible, Texas should never let their guard down, but those in LA should make sure they have a plan ASAP.

I’m still not convinced there’s been much increase in confidence today. Focusing on the clustering of models within a given suite ignores the variability that clearly still exists as denoted by the ensemble spreads and large shifts occurring between suites. I agree things look better for Texas now than they did 18 hours ago, but the fact that there isn’t much inter-suite continuity means it’s probably a bit early to be suggesting that a westward shift is so unlikely

All I'm going to say is that just 3 short days ago, the GFS (in at least 10 consecutive runs) put this system into either south or central Mexico. That is all.

It's also worth noting that multiple Euro and GFS ensemble members still show Texas impacts. I don't think it's over for Texas yet.

[Kohlecane]

Anyone From CC to NOLA is in play with a focal point being TX/LA border as of now until the 00z come through IMO. But If I lived in Biloxi-Destin I would start tuning in, wouldn't hurt welcome to 2021 where it seems every storm after Elsa just wants to do it's own thing
EDIT: I take that back after Danny popped up and was knocking on my door within 15 hours I think he is to blame

[Iceresistance]

The way it looks Texas is officially off the hook god bless you all on central gulf coast! Beaumont to alabama

WAY too premature to say that.

Yes, it's too early to call that right now!

ICON & HWRF are still aiming this at Texas!

[hicksta]

The way it looks Texas is officially off the hook god bless you all on central gulf coast! Beaumont to alabama

I remember evacuating for RITA when every model agreed just to the west of Freeport with less than 24hrs left. Hit Beaumont.

Anyone remember tracking Katrina waiting for her to turn?

This is way too premature of a statement. Sometimes the safest spot 1 week out is the middle of the cone

[South Texas Storms]

While I'm feeling better here in Houston based on the latest trends, we definitely aren't out of the woods yet. I think we should be more confidence in who will see impacts from this system by Friday. The threat has definitely increased for Louisiana today though.

[SoupBone]

While I'm feeling better here in Houston based on the latest trends, we definitely aren't out of the woods yet. I think we should be more confidence in who will see impacts from this system by Friday. The threat has definitely increased for Louisiana today though.

I remember having these exact same conversations roughly a year ago, while watched models flip and flop till the last day. It was nerve-wracking.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the HWRF is initializing this in a better place than the others. It is all in on the northern center which looks like the place this forms

[starsfan65]

While I'm feeling better here in Houston based on the latest trends, we definitely aren't out of the woods yet. I think we should be more confidence in who will see impacts from this system by Friday. The threat has definitely increased for Louisiana today though.

Too early to call yet.

[sphelps8681]

While I'm feeling better here in Houston based on the latest trends, we definitely aren't out of the woods yet. I think we should be more confidence in who will see impacts from this system by Friday. The threat has definitely increased for Louisiana today though.

How is East Tx looking? We are very close to LA border. Are we some what better off as well. I realize no COC yet and things can change. Just your thoughts.

[Clearcloudz]

While I'm feeling better here in Houston based on the latest trends, we definitely aren't out of the woods yet. I think we should be more confidence in who will see impacts from this system by Friday. The threat has definitely increased for Louisiana today though.

Too early to call yet.

With the storm getting stronger fast more northeast shifts are coming in the future model cycles. Just my personal opinion and I could be wrong

[Red eye]

Watching models before consolidation and acting on them can be a fool's errand, but being 5 days out we have to start planning. Tough scenario to predict. I want to believe GFS being how well it has performed well the last couple of years, but watching these 1-2 hundred mile shifts each run is exhausting.

The model consensus is good for a Northern/Northwestern gulf coast hit at least.