ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

ASCAT-B shows circulation/trough a bit elongated and displaced from MLC but a bit more defined than what it showed earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/IYldRce.gif

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1430754189219598343




It is interesting to note that the 00Z GEFS mean brings 99L directly over the Gulf Loop Current in three days. Barring PVS, this should be closely watched.

[Blown Away]

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

00z early model guidance show NW movement now with Ukmet showing more westward movement and then landfall in TX vs LA.

[SoupBone]

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

00z early model guidance show NW movement now with Ukmet showing more westward movement and then landfall in TX vs LA.

???

I saw the Ukmet posted earlier and it showed a central Louisiana landfall.

[Shell Mound]

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

00z early model guidance show NW movement now with Ukmet showing more westward movement and then landfall in TX vs LA.

That might result in a weaker 99L, given closer proximity to land and 95E’s PVS. The weakest 18Z EPS members are on the western flank of the guidance.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF coming in slightly stronger and notably further sw through hour 63

[CrazyC83]

HWRF coming in slightly stronger and notably further sw through hour 63

HWRF looks to be a basis for if the southern center (the LLC) wins out.

[Owasso]

80/90 now.

[CrazyC83]

80/90 now.

X is at the MLC. Since watches/warnings will be needed soon for the Yucatan and Cuba, I'd go ahead and call this PTC 9 at 4 am CDT personally.

[Shell Mound]

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

Interestingly, the 00Z HWRF initialised a centre near 13.8°N 77.5°W. It’s too far east, but the initialisation is surprisingly good.

[catskillfire51]

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

Interestingly, the 00Z HWRF initialised a centre near 13.8°N 77.5°W. It’s too far east, but the initialisation is surprisingly good.

Could be a big win or turn in to a big bust.

[CrazyC83]

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

Interestingly, the 00Z HWRF initialised a centre near 13.8°N 77.5°W. It’s too far east, but the initialisation is surprisingly good.

Could be a big win or turn in to a big bust.

It all depends on if that LLC can actually stay intact with convection.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT25 KNES 260553
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)

B. 26/0530Z

C. 15.3N

D. 76.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES AROUND A CSC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 1.5. THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT AND
IS ALSO EQUAL TO 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EXACT CSC POSITION AND CLOUD FEATURES AROUND CSC IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Worried about what to expect tomorrow morning. This looks like a monster in the making.

From the model thread, I noticed that the NW Gulf near Texas is the hottest part of the Gulf of Mexico. Why is that? I don't think that's normal either.

[grapealcoholic]

Worried about what to expect tomorrow morning. This looks like a monster in the making.

From the model thread, I noticed that the NW Gulf near Texas is the hottest part of the Gulf of Mexico. Why is that? I don't think that's normal either.

I think it's because the water just gets trapped there without any currents to disperse away the heat like the eastern side

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just checked the latest mode suite, and wow, Louisiana is beyond unlucky at this point. Just like everyone else has said previously tonight, there currently is not much to stop IDA.

[Yellow Evan]

Technically classifiable.

[kevin]

Looks pretty good imo, wouldn't be surprised if this is classified later today.

[Shawee]

ASCAT also has the center farther southwest...like 13.9N 78.3W.

Interestingly, the 00Z HWRF initialised a centre near 13.8°N 77.5°W. It’s too far east, but the initialisation is surprisingly good.

Could be a big win or turn in to a big bust.

I understand your point and agree, but a “big bust” would be a “big win” in my book.