ATL: IDA - Models

[catskillfire51]

This HWRF run is something else

I think HWRF actually develops the LLC and not allows the MLC (or a relocated center) to drop to the surface. That is why it is so far to the southwest.

Does that seem like a plausible scenario? I remember levi's video saying that circulation usually develops toward the top of the wave.

[CrazyC83]

This HWRF run is something else

I think HWRF actually develops the LLC and not allows the MLC (or a relocated center) to drop to the surface. That is why it is so far to the southwest.

Does that seem like a plausible scenario? I remember levi's video saying that circulation usually develops toward the top of the wave.

Possible but less likely. Convection would need to fire at the low latitudes to sustain that LLC.

[Owasso]

A full two degrees south of the last run now. Significantly slower.

[SoupBone]

HMON looks like it's making its way to the LA/TX line.

[catskillfire51]

HMON looks like it's making its way to the LA/TX line.

It's a mess though, bouncing all over the place.

[supercane4867]

00z HWRF appears to be going bonkers in terms of intensity

[SoupBone]

Ok, dumb question time. Does a person set the initial coordinates for the models or do they "find" the center through some sort of AI?

[Steve]

Damn. I need to go to bed. Haha. But the EC is initialized at 00 hours. haha. Maybe US or someone has it sooner so I can go to bed. Otherwise, I'm watching that tonight and then crashing.

For the record, MJO looks to drop back into Phase 2 then 3 for the next several days. That's got juice written all over it. Also, the edge of that upward motion from the Kelvin Wave is arriving just in time. This is from 12z, but press play...
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

[CrazyC83]

Ok, dumb question time. Does a person set the initial coordinates for the models or do they "find" the center through some sort of AI?

Correct. Mathematical equations are all brought in and initial conditions set all over the environment and the broader region to try to time it all out as things move forward.

[Keldeo1997]

This run might very ugly for Galveston/Houston

[catskillfire51]

HMON for what it's worth had a slight shift west, now on the TX/LA boarder.

[grapealcoholic]

The ridge actually came in quite a bit stronger even on the GEFS.

[SoupBone]

The HWRF is going to slam Galveston/Houston.

[Shell Mound]

The 00Z HWRF is farther southwest by day three and also suggests a more lopsided structure, owing to interaction with 95E’s PVS, hence delayed RI until near LF.

[grapealcoholic]

The HWRF is going to slam Galveston/Houston.

Huge storm too

[AtlanticWind]

Euro shifts east early at 48 hours

[Steve]

King is going to cross or go just under western Cuba. weather.us was still at 12z, and TT is only out to 48 hours. Come on Euro.

[catskillfire51]

King is going to cross or go just under western Cuba. weather.us was still at 12z, and TT is only out to 48 hours. Come on Euro.

Weatherbell has it going just over the tip.

[Shell Mound]

The structure definitely appears to be more sheared on the 00Z HWRF vs. 18Z, given closer proximity 95E’s PVS and associated westerly shear. This could delay RI.

Edit: HWRF shows very little change in intensity on days four and five, likely due to westerly shear. MSLP oscillates between 938 and 942 mb during this timeframe.

[catskillfire51]

King is going to cross or go just under western Cuba. weather.us was still at 12z, and TT is only out to 48 hours. Come on Euro.

Weatherbell has it going just over the tip. Just a bit east from previous.