ATL: IDA - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, the HWRF is like a Super-Ike

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF is really hitting the brakes on this run

[grapealcoholic]

This epic convective wrap as a 938mb storm

[Shell Mound]

Man, the HWRF is like a Super-Ike

It’s no longer showing RI just before landfall, however, and for the first time suggests westerly shear could be an issue. Because 99L is now projected to be farther southwest, it is forecast to be closer to 95E’s PVS, hence the likelihood of stronger westerly shear. So 99L’s short-term intensity over the NW Caribbean will still prove critical to its future “ceiling” over the Gulf of Mexico. The past several cycles have trended toward a stronger 99L near or just south of the Yucatán Channel, which could help 99L contend with the PVS later on. Still, the large size is as concerning as the intensity.

[whatacane]

This epic convective wrap as a 938mb storm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021082600/hwrf_satIR_99L_19.png

evil looking clown sidewas

[Shell Mound]

This epic convective wrap as a 938mb storm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021082600/hwrf_satIR_99L_19.png

The northward turn just offshore of Galveston, TX, suggests an eventual landfall near or just east of Sabine Pass. By day five the MSLP is down to 931 mb.

[SoupBone]

So not to completely dismiss the HWRF, but it just puts on the brakes, damn near stops, then hooks hard right then north before getting to Houston? Just looks unrealistic as a visual.

[catskillfire51]

HWRF has that north turn starting at 105 hours, looks to go to east Texas or the boarder as well.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, the HWRF is like a Super-Ike

It’s no longer showing RI just before landfall, however, and for the first time suggests westerly shear could be an issue. Because 99L is now projected to be farther southwest, it is forecast to be closer to 95E’s PVS, hence the likelihood of stronger westerly shear. So 99L’s short-term intensity over the NW Caribbean will still prove critical to its future “ceiling” over the Gulf of Mexico. The past several cycles have trended toward a stronger 99L near or just south of the Yucatán Channel, which could help 99L contend with the PVS later on. Still, the large size is as concerning as the intensity.

Yet the EURO is moving EAST, the opposite direction....I don't put much faith at all in the HWRF. It's hit a few home runs in the past, but most of the time it's clueless and the outlier.....

[SoupBone]

So at 102 Hours, the Euro is clipping Terrebonne Parish, much like the GFS run.

[Shell Mound]

So at 102 Hours, the Euro is clipping Terrebonne Parish, much like the GFS run.

The 00Z EC operational basically follows Andrew’s (1992) track through Franklin, New Iberia, and Lafayette. The run is also about 10 mb deeper vs. 12Z’s.

[SoupBone]

The Euro almost mirrors the GFS.

[CrazyC83]

So at 102 Hours, the Euro is clipping Terrebonne Parish, much like the GFS run.

The 00Z EC operational basically follows Andrew’s (1992) track through Franklin, New Iberia, and Lafayette. The run is also about 10 mb deeper vs. 12Z’s.

Slightly west of the Gustav track. HWRF brings it into Port Arthur at 931 mb (category 4).

[Shell Mound]

The Euro almost mirrors the GFS.

Compared to yesterday’s 12Z, today’s 00Z EC operational is much farther east and also slightly deeper (958 vs. 964 mb) at landfall.

[Owasso]

928mb..

[grapealcoholic]

[Nederlander]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021082600/hwrf_satIR_99L_22.png

No thanks… that would cripple a lot of the petrochemical industry. Hopefully it’s just another phantom monster the HWRF likes to spit out

[supercane4867]

The one thing HWRF initialed correctly is 32C SSTs



Also the slow down at the end is very reasonable given the predicted pattern

[Steve]

EC hits the SC LA coast also with a western component at landfall. That's pretty much all the globals. Ridge protecting FL remains strong. We've all got a couple intense days ahead. Seems like someone's getting hit by at least a Cat 2.

[kevin]

06z GFS landfalls quite far on Cuba, is this even a semi-realistic possibility or can we throw this one away?