Which Invest will be Ida?

[galaxy401]

So a little contest to have, which of the three Atlantic Invests will develop first and be given the dreaded "I" name? Our contenders are:

97L: The northernmost of the three invests. Odds look good on this developing in a couple of days. Some models even show a strong hurricane though it'll likely stay a fish.
98L: The one closest to Cabo Verde. Little model support for this one but with the low latitude, perhaps it can sneak through and develop first?
99L: The one in the Caribbean. Models show a potential Gulf of Mexico hurricane and a threat for Texas and Louisiana. The most threatening of the three but will it get the I name?

Or perhaps all three fail to develop and we'll have to wait a little longer.

Can you get a Poll set up for this please?

[cycloneye]

Made the poll that closes for voting on Friday at 3:10 AM.

[kevin]

Either 97L or 99L. I'm gonna go with 99L, if only because the i-storm is often associated with a strong and destructive hurricane, which is a description that probably fits future 99L better than future 97L.

[kevin]

Also just for reference, here are all the i-storms since 2000. Indeed it seems that the i-storm is often one of the most destructive and deadly storms of the season as it often occurs in September during peak season. Since 2000, 16 out of 20 (80%) i-storms became hurricanes and 9 out of 20 (45%) have been major hurricanes.

Year / Storm name / Category / Minimum pressure (mbar) / Max. wind speed (mph) / Casualties

2000 / Isaac / 4 / 943 / 140 / 1
2001 / Iris / 4 / 948 / 145 / 36
2002 / Isidore / 3 / 934 / 125 / 22
2003 / Isabel / 5 / 915 / 165 / 51
2004 / Ivan / 5 / 910 / 165 / 124
2005 / Irene / 2 / 970 / 105 / 1
2006 / Isaac / 1 / 985 / 85 / 0
2007 / Ingrid / TS / 1002 / 45 / 0
2008 / Ike / 4 / 935 / 145 / 214
2009 / Ida / 2 / 975 / 105 / 4
2010 / Igor / 4 / 924 / 155 / 4
2011 / Irene / 3 / 942 / 120 / 58
2012 / Isaac / 1 / 965 / 80 / 41
2013 / Ingrid / 1 / 983 / 85 / 32
2014 / No i-storm
2015 / Ida / TS / 1001 / 50 / 0
2016 / Ian / TS / 994 / 60 / 0
2017 / Irma / 5 / 914 / 180 / 134
2018 / Isaac / 1 / 995 / 75 / 0
2019 / Imelda / TS / 1003 / 45 / 7
2020 / Isaias / 1 / 986 / 90 / 17

[Category5Kaiju]

I used to think it would be 97L and 99L would be be Julian, but as the idea of pre-naming being inefficient exists and the I curse a thing, I am going to say that 99L will be Ida.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also just for reference, here are all the i-storms since 2000. Indeed it seems that the i-storm is often one of the most destructive and deadly storms of the season as it often occurs in September during peak season. Since 2000, 16 out of 20 (80%) i-storms became hurricanes and 9 out of 20 (45%) have been major hurricanes.

Year / Storm name / Category / Minimum pressure (mbar) / Max. wind speed (mph) / Casualties

2000 / Isaac / 4 / 943 / 140 / 1
2001 / Iris / 4 / 948 / 145 / 36
2002 / Isidore / 3 / 934 / 125 / 22
2003 / Isabel / 5 / 915 / 165 / 51
2004 / Ivan / 5 / 910 / 165 / 124
2005 / Irene / 2 / 970 / 105 / 1
2006 / Isaac / 1 / 985 / 85 / 0
2007 / Ingrid / TS / 1002 / 45 / 0
2008 / Ike / 4 / 935 / 145 / 214
2009 / Ida / 2 / 975 / 105 / 4
2010 / Igor / 4 / 924 / 155 / 4
2011 / Irene / 3 / 942 / 120 / 58
2012 / Isaac / 1 / 965 / 80 / 41
2013 / Ingrid / 1 / 983 / 85 / 32
2014 / No i-storm
2015 / Ida / TS / 1001 / 50 / 0
2016 / Ian / TS / 994 / 60 / 0
2017 / Irma / 5 / 914 / 180 / 134
2018 / Isaac / 1 / 995 / 75 / 0
2019 / Imelda / TS / 1003 / 45 / 7
2020 / Isaias / 1 / 986 / 90 / 17

2020 / Iota / 4 / 917 / 155 / 125

Seriously, sometimes I wonder if we should just downright ban the use of I names to name TCs and go from H to J names instead, it almost seems like Mother Nature has a built-in mechanism to make I storms the worst of the worst

[Iceresistance]

Also just for reference, here are all the i-storms since 2000. Indeed it seems that the i-storm is often one of the most destructive and deadly storms of the season as it often occurs in September during peak season. Since 2000, 16 out of 20 (80%) i-storms became hurricanes and 9 out of 20 (45%) have been major hurricanes.

Year / Storm name / Category / Minimum pressure (mbar) / Max. wind speed (mph) / Casualties

2000 / Isaac / 4 / 943 / 140 / 1
2001 / Iris / 4 / 948 / 145 / 36
2002 / Isidore / 3 / 934 / 125 / 22
2003 / Isabel / 5 / 915 / 165 / 51
2004 / Ivan / 5 / 910 / 165 / 124
2005 / Irene / 2 / 970 / 105 / 1
2006 / Isaac / 1 / 985 / 85 / 0
2007 / Ingrid / TS / 1002 / 45 / 0
2008 / Ike / 4 / 935 / 145 / 214
2009 / Ida / 2 / 975 / 105 / 4
2010 / Igor / 4 / 924 / 155 / 4
2011 / Irene / 3 / 942 / 120 / 58
2012 / Isaac / 1 / 965 / 80 / 41
2013 / Ingrid / 1 / 983 / 85 / 32
2014 / No i-storm
2015 / Ida / TS / 1001 / 50 / 0
2016 / Ian / TS / 994 / 60 / 0
2017 / Irma / 5 / 914 / 180 / 134
2018 / Isaac / 1 / 995 / 75 / 0
2019 / Imelda / TS / 1003 / 45 / 7
2020 / Isaias / 1 / 986 / 90 / 17

2020 / Iota / 4 / 917 / 155 / 125

Seriously, sometimes I wonder if we should just downright ban the use of I names to name TCs and go from H to J names instead, it almost seems like Mother Nature has a built-in mechanism to make I storms the worst of the worst

I'm part of the 'I-curse'

[ElectricStorm]

Went with 99. If that is indeed the case, then it might be the last Ida if some of these model runs verify

[Category5Kaiju]

Went with 99. If that is indeed the case, then it might be the last Ida if some of these model runs verify

Alright, time for the replacement name game I suppose, Imogen? Ivy? Ina?

[chaser1]

I'll be that lone voice voting for the underdog LOL. Seriously though, there is a rationale behind my thinking that 98L will be named first. It's easy to presume that we'll see a TD eventually develop out of the Caribbean eventually and 97L will also spin up quickly due to it's relative small size.... once conditions become favorable to do so. So why 98L? Because it too is a relative small and compact disturbance with some existent mid level rotation. It however appears to be moving toward warmer SST as it approaches 40W. This along with the fact that it is Aug 25; We have seen past seasons where a well organized tropical wave in the deep Eastern MDR suddenly developed in a day out of nowhere during this special period during the last days of August and into early September. Therefore based on my guess which has the greatest potential to spin up first even perhaps as soon as Friday/Saturday, 98L fits that potential (even if model support and NHC suggest overall odds for "eventual" development favor the other two systems over the 7 day range).

[AnnularCane]

Also just for reference, here are all the i-storms since 2000. Indeed it seems that the i-storm is often one of the most destructive and deadly storms of the season as it often occurs in September during peak season. Since 2000, 16 out of 20 (80%) i-storms became hurricanes and 9 out of 20 (45%) have been major hurricanes.

Year / Storm name / Category / Minimum pressure (mbar) / Max. wind speed (mph) / Casualties

2000 / Isaac / 4 / 943 / 140 / 1
2001 / Iris / 4 / 948 / 145 / 36
2002 / Isidore / 3 / 934 / 125 / 22
2003 / Isabel / 5 / 915 / 165 / 51
2004 / Ivan / 5 / 910 / 165 / 124
2005 / Irene / 2 / 970 / 105 / 1
2006 / Isaac / 1 / 985 / 85 / 0
2007 / Ingrid / TS / 1002 / 45 / 0
2008 / Ike / 4 / 935 / 145 / 214
2009 / Ida / 2 / 975 / 105 / 4
2010 / Igor / 4 / 924 / 155 / 4
2011 / Irene / 3 / 942 / 120 / 58
2012 / Isaac / 1 / 965 / 80 / 41
2013 / Ingrid / 1 / 983 / 85 / 32
2014 / No i-storm
2015 / Ida / TS / 1001 / 50 / 0
2016 / Ian / TS / 994 / 60 / 0
2017 / Irma / 5 / 914 / 180 / 134
2018 / Isaac / 1 / 995 / 75 / 0
2019 / Imelda / TS / 1003 / 45 / 7
2020 / Isaias / 1 / 986 / 90 / 17

2020 / Iota / 4 / 917 / 155 / 125

Seriously, sometimes I wonder if we should just downright ban the use of I names to name TCs and go from H to J names instead, it almost seems like Mother Nature has a built-in mechanism to make I storms the worst of the worst

But then it would just transfer over to the J names.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also just for reference, here are all the i-storms since 2000. Indeed it seems that the i-storm is often one of the most destructive and deadly storms of the season as it often occurs in September during peak season. Since 2000, 16 out of 20 (80%) i-storms became hurricanes and 9 out of 20 (45%) have been major hurricanes.

Year / Storm name / Category / Minimum pressure (mbar) / Max. wind speed (mph) / Casualties

2000 / Isaac / 4 / 943 / 140 / 1
2001 / Iris / 4 / 948 / 145 / 36
2002 / Isidore / 3 / 934 / 125 / 22
2003 / Isabel / 5 / 915 / 165 / 51
2004 / Ivan / 5 / 910 / 165 / 124
2005 / Irene / 2 / 970 / 105 / 1
2006 / Isaac / 1 / 985 / 85 / 0
2007 / Ingrid / TS / 1002 / 45 / 0
2008 / Ike / 4 / 935 / 145 / 214
2009 / Ida / 2 / 975 / 105 / 4
2010 / Igor / 4 / 924 / 155 / 4
2011 / Irene / 3 / 942 / 120 / 58
2012 / Isaac / 1 / 965 / 80 / 41
2013 / Ingrid / 1 / 983 / 85 / 32
2014 / No i-storm
2015 / Ida / TS / 1001 / 50 / 0
2016 / Ian / TS / 994 / 60 / 0
2017 / Irma / 5 / 914 / 180 / 134
2018 / Isaac / 1 / 995 / 75 / 0
2019 / Imelda / TS / 1003 / 45 / 7
2020 / Isaias / 1 / 986 / 90 / 17

2020 / Iota / 4 / 917 / 155 / 125

Seriously, sometimes I wonder if we should just downright ban the use of I names to name TCs and go from H to J names instead, it almost seems like Mother Nature has a built-in mechanism to make I storms the worst of the worst

But then it would just transfer over to the J names.

Well, yes, the J curse...but at least unlike I names there are a myriad of common and easily recognizable male and female J names; it seems like for the I names we are very much running out of such due to how many we have been retiring and replacing over the years.

[Teban54]

Went with 99. If that is indeed the case, then it might be the last Ida if some of these model runs verify

Alright, time for the replacement name game I suppose, Imogen? Ivy? Ina? Ileana?

Ileana is currently on the EPAC list.

[aspen]

I was thinking 97L for the last few days, but it seems that 99L is developing a lot faster than expected and 97L might be slower than previously anticipated.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Went with 99. If that is indeed the case, then it might be the last Ida if some of these model runs verify

We are quite likely to never see an "Ida" in this basin ever again.

[Category5Kaiju]

Of all the I names I can think of, my top pick personally should Ida become a retiree would be Imogen, but again, this is just me, although I have seen quite a few individuals on social media wanting to see Imogen on the Atlantic naming list, so perhaps this would be a plausible opportunity?

[Category5Kaiju]

Went with 99. If that is indeed the case, then it might be the last Ida if some of these model runs verify

Alright, time for the replacement name game I suppose, Imogen? Ivy? Ina? Ileana?

Ileana is currently on the EPAC list.

Yup, had to correct myself, thanks! It really does look like we are really running out of good I names, and if this I curse were to persist going forward, I would not be surprised if we are forced to begin resorting to using Russian I names (like "Irina") or Indian I names (like "Indira") as such cultures have a lot of I names

[Iceresistance]

99L is now TD 9

[galaxy401]

99L is now TD 9

Indeed though it’s not Ida just yet so this poll is still open even if the voting is very obvious now .

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 99L has officially become Tropical Storm Ida.