ATL: IDA - Models

[tolakram]

GFS way north and east again. I have no clue if this can be tossed or not. lol

[tolakram]

[kevin]

So 06z GFS goes over Cuba and then brings a MH right over New Orleans, Katrina 2.0 . If there's one thing we learned about the latest model runs it's that we still don't know anything at all. Once again GFS is way way faster than any of the other models. I have trouble believing this is a valid run, but tbh at this point who knows. It's really scary that we're perhaps only 3 days away from a landfall in a major city like Houston or New Orleans and we still know pretty much nothing about this system. It could be a chaotic few days.

[Keldeo1997]

So 06z GFS goes over Cuba and then brings a MH right over New Orleans, Katrina 2.0 . If there's one thing we learned about the latest model runs it's that we still don't know anything at all. Once again GFS is way way faster than any of the other models. I have trouble believing this is a valid run, but tbh at this point who knows. It's really scary that we're perhaps only 3 days away from a landfall in a major city like Houston or New Orleans and we still know pretty much nothing about this system. It could be a chaotic few days.

https://i.imgur.com/yXzOXna.png

$50B+ Disaster right there



Edit: UHHHH

[jlauderdal]

The one thing HWRF initialed correctly is 32C SSTs

https://i.imgur.com/WYgrCVW.png

Also the slow down at the end is very reasonable given the predicted pattern

https://i.imgur.com/ChxlKIf.png

We need to give the HWRF more juice than the last few storms, it does better in favorable conditions and the gulf is certainly favorable in this setup. This is really looking like a major hurricane for the tx/la line to NO and beyond.

The modeling last year and so far this season have done a really poor job with the strength of the ridge but that works both ways, recently it has been underestimating it but it appears the last few days it has been overdoing it. Trend is your friend.

[LSU Saint]

Looks like it’s straying farther and farther from Houston. Nola bound?

[Kohlecane]

Overall I get that the HWRF can be the extreme outlier, whether it's intensity or bias in a N or S component to it's track as opposed to the other major models. If there is one thing from these runs we can agree on given Texas is still a factor in play, is that there is nothing for it to miss, and by that regardless of a more WNW or NW move at some point every model has a hard shift N. the speed and angle of approach will be the greatest factor IMO, more north development the angle is significantly reduced (GFS) vs.(HWRF). Although I will say the 00Z UKMET deciding an E move to LA.. is saying a lot, below is still Galveston-Biloxi IMHO should be on high alert today with it being at 90% hopefully we get the PTC designation by 11AM if it's not more organized by then and also recon this afternoon should help with consolidating the 18z models a little more.
00z UKMET

00z GFS

00z Euro

00z Canadian

[TheDreamTraveler]

So 06z GFS goes over Cuba and then brings a MH right over New Orleans, Katrina 2.0 . If there's one thing we learned about the latest model runs it's that we still don't know anything at all. Once again GFS is way way faster than any of the other models. I have trouble believing this is a valid run, but tbh at this point who knows. It's really scary that we're perhaps only 3 days away from a landfall in a major city like Houston or New Orleans and we still know pretty much nothing about this system. It could be a chaotic few days.

https://i.imgur.com/yXzOXna.png

The fact you mentioned inbetween houston or new orleans is a good indicator that it could easily landfall inbetween those areas that aren't very populated like how Michael hit Mexico beach which luckily wasn't a big area at all. It's easy to get caught up in the big cities but thankfully this far out means a specific landfall isn't certain yet

[USTropics]

Changes in the GFS tracks (and other models) is all about the launch zone, so to speak. Look at just the 36 hour trend from the past 6 GFS runs:

[Nimbus]

Looks like it’s straying farther and farther from Houston. Nola bound?

WXman57 said its looking better for Houston.
He also has forecast responsibility for the oil/gas field infrastructure near Terrapin Reef.
It takes days to shut down an oil rig and if they are late sea intrusion can disrupt the whole field.
So he has to stay by the phone 24/7 and give them the latest estimates which obviously shift hourly based on new data.
This morning there is a hot tower quite far south on infrared with shear beginning to lighten up just a bit further west where an ULL is in the process of filling.

Water vapor imagery and IR aren't really enough to verify whether this is going to spin up in the next 6 hours or not though.

[HeeBGBz]

:

https://i.imgur.com/AayLyrv.png

Looks like big trouble ahead in my little world. Not to mention it would be the 16th anniversary of K to the day.. What will be this one's name be?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/evanjameswx/status/1430844841920016387

Changes in the GFS tracks (and other models) is all about the launch zone, so to speak. Look at just the 36 hour trend from the past 6 GFS runs:

https://i.imgur.com/hpQlKW2.gif

Note that while the GFS has trended farther northeast and stronger with 99L, it has also done likewise with 95E, so the latter could still induce shear over the former.

[tolakram]

HWRF looks to have initialized too far south IMO. I would expect another solution that is too far west.



SW floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Kohlecane]

Not to be hoping for this outcome!, but I'm just curious between Hr 63-75 it crosses over that favorable area in the Gulf and the latter time frame during DMAX
even though it's a 8MB drop there has to be something holding it back from a more RI IMHO

[Shell Mound]

even though it's a 8MB drop there has to be something holding it back from a more RI IMHO

The models hint at shear from TD Fourteen (EPAC) on days two and three, displacing 99L’s ULAC. The westerly shear doesn’t fully diminish until the time of landfall.

[LadyBug72]

:

https://i.imgur.com/AayLyrv.png

Looks like big trouble ahead in my little world. Not to mention it would be the 16th anniversary of K to the day.. What will be this one's name be?

This one will be Ida if it develops before 98L

[aspen]

HWRF looks to have initialized too far south IMO. I would expect another solution that is too far west.

https://i.imgur.com/qbEQj2c.png

SW floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The center hops north and it makes landfall in the western tip of Cuba, which is a believable outcome based on 99L’s current position. I think this run will be closer to the other models showing a central LA landfall.

Update: yep, about to wreck central LA like every other model

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Dean4Storms]

Call me now more concerned for the western FL Panhandle to New Orleans. That Ridge over NC begins breaking down in that latest GFS run just as Ida reaches landfall and turns northward then NNE. If Ida tracks the more northern track as the GFS is showing but slower that landfall could happen further eastward. Seen this song and dance before with one of these MH puppies!