ATL: IDA - Models

[jlauderdal]

Call me now more concerned for the western FL Panhandle to New Orleans. That Ridge over NC begins breaking down in that latest GFS run just as Ida reaches landfall and turns northward then NNE. If Ida tracks the more northern track as the GFS is showing but slower that landfall could happen further eastward. Seen this song and dance before with one of these MH puppies!

The panhandle is more likely than texas at this point.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Call me now more concerned for the western FL Panhandle to New Orleans. That Ridge over NC begins breaking down in that latest GFS run just as Ida reaches landfall and turns northward then NNE. If Ida tracks the more northern track as the GFS is showing but slower that landfall could happen further eastward. Seen this song and dance before with one of these MH puppies!

The panhandle is more likely than texas at this point.

Probably. But this is late August which is a little different than later when we'd typically see shifts the other way. The ridge does break down in response to a cold front, but look at the orientation at 500mb. It's still strong. A cold front comes down to weaken it, but if the GFS is remotely correct with western part of the high centered in the Carolinas, this probably wouldn't get even to the FL/AL line. It's not realistic based on the GFS which is what Dean was referring to. I'm not saying there's no way it would happen, because as he said, we've all seen it before. But not on this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82606&fh=6

[tolakram]

HWRF corrected east and is now within 50 miles of GFS, Euro, CMC, HMON, and ICON (if I quick-measured correctly). Pretty good consensus.

[dantonlsu]

HWRF corrected east and is now within 50 miles of GFS, Euro, CMC, HMON, and ICON (if I quick-measured correctly). Pretty good consensus.

Yup. Let's see what info we get from recon. Will be good to get some hard data in the model runs

[BobHarlem]

[Steve]

HWRF corrected east and is now within 50 miles of GFS, Euro, CMC, HMON, and ICON (if I quick-measured correctly). Pretty good consensus.

Yeah. We are in the ever tightening time window where consensus should be increasing. Now it’s just about what atmospheric surprises come into play.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF corrected east and is now within 50 miles of GFS, Euro, CMC, HMON, and ICON (if I quick-measured correctly). Pretty good consensus.

And with the exception of the hwrf, the variability between runs is quickly decreasing. Unless any recon data significantly changes things, my confidence has increased in a Louisiana landfall.

[Kohlecane]

HMON little further E LF near Buras, LA then actually strengthens it a little moving NNW headed to NOLA or just grazing to the E of NOLA
overall one of the weaker models in intensity, we will see if it follows suite with the others in later runs. So far GFS/EURO and UKMET have this stronger on approach and HWRF.. well is HWRF

[dantonlsu]

Call me now more concerned for the western FL Panhandle to New Orleans. That Ridge over NC begins breaking down in that latest GFS run just as Ida reaches landfall and turns northward then NNE. If Ida tracks the more northern track as the GFS is showing but slower that landfall could happen further eastward. Seen this song and dance before with one of these MH puppies!

The panhandle is more likely than texas at this point.

Really?

[Jr0d]

Woke up to another east shift in the models. Now it looks like the Florida Straits, at least west of Marathon could need watches\warnings when advisories are issued.

As always the model runs would greatly benefit from recon data, especially the upper air synoptic mission.

Regardless of the final track, the models are crystal clear about one thing; this will be a strong hurricane when it makes landfall somewhere in the northern gulf.

[jlauderdal]

Call me now more concerned for the western FL Panhandle to New Orleans. That Ridge over NC begins breaking down in that latest GFS run just as Ida reaches landfall and turns northward then NNE. If Ida tracks the more northern track as the GFS is showing but slower that landfall could happen further eastward. Seen this song and dance before with one of these MH puppies!

The panhandle is more likely than texas at this point.

Really?

https://i.ibb.co/x2ts8PR/Annotation-2021-08-26-071133.png

Yes, its been trending east, I don't think the panhandle sees a direct hit but IMO its more likely they do than Texas does. Still looks like a LA storm

[ronjon]

Models getting into pretty solid agreement 3-4 days out now. The only slight wildcard is where the center actually forms which most now indicate somewhere near western Cuba. Right now its not looking good for New Orleans but I could easily see this storm going 100 miles west or east of there. Think right now the window for landfall is Tx/La line to Mobile with it obviously narrowing as we get closer to Sunday night.

[Dean4Storms]

The panhandle is more likely than texas at this point.

Really?

https://i.ibb.co/x2ts8PR/Annotation-2021-08-26-071133.png

Yes, its been trending east, I don't think the panhandle sees a direct hit but IMO its more likely they do than Texas does. Still looks like a LA storm

Yes, any landfall on the AL or even MS coast and the western FL Panhandle would be in the eastern side where the worst weather resides.

[Nederlander]

Gotta give it some props, the GFS looks to have really nailed this one at least in the short term. I never imagined 99L gaining so much latitude so quickly. Really hoping intensification can stay in check for my central and eastern LA/MS/AL friends

[Kohlecane]

Interesting, was not sure if someone posted this, aside Keith cause pattern was for Nov.

[ConvergenceZone]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

[Kohlecane]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

GFS still has mid 950's and Euro is stronger than the 12z yesterday GEM/CMC is a bit stronger, or are you referring to Central gulf intensification