ATL: IDA - Models

[kevin]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

Don't get me wrong, I'll take any good news there is but where did you see models backing off intensity? GFS still had a 950s system and the euro's 958 mbar run this morning was its strongest run so far and HWRF was once again in the 940s. Only HMON may have been a bit weaker this time with 970 pressure.

[Dean4Storms]

Am I seeing things or did the GFS initialize the 06z run down near 15N?

[ConvergenceZone]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

GFS still has mid 950's and Euro is stronger than the 12z yesterday GEM/CMC is a bit stronger, or are you referring to Central gulf intensification

I think I saw 930's on some of the models runs last night. I think it was both the GFS and the EURO etc...But I know I saw it landfalling lower than the 950s.....Let us hope the trend continues and that shear from 95E will be more of an impact...

[cheezyWXguy]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

GFS still has mid 950's and Euro is stronger than the 12z yesterday GEM/CMC is a bit stronger, or are you referring to Central gulf intensification

I think I saw 930's on some of the models runs last night. I think it was both the GFS and the EURO etc...But I know I saw it landfalling lower than the 950s.....Let us hope the trend continues and that shear from 95E will be more of an impact...

We can hope, sure, but I really doubt it. I don’t think shear is an issue here. 99L’s outflow will be strong enough to push any upper shear from 95E away. I think the main reason we aren’t seeing as low of pressure estimates is because the models show less time over water than previously, and likely don’t have the resolution to fully grasp intensification trends. We like to talk about how the hwrf overdoes intensity a lot, but in this case I think it’s going to end up being pretty close. I’m fact, considering how quickly 99L is currently wrapping up, the overall intensity consensus is likely too low.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

GFS still has mid 950's and Euro is stronger than the 12z yesterday GEM/CMC is a bit stronger, or are you referring to Central gulf intensification

I think I saw 930's on some of the models runs last night. I think it was both the GFS and the EURO etc...But I know I saw it landfalling lower than the 950s.....Let us hope the trend continues and that shear from 95E will be more of an impact...

Unfortunately the models do not know what exactly is going to happen. We could see a 980mb cat 1 landfall or an 899mb Cat 5 landfall.(<.1%)

[kevin]

GFS still has mid 950's and Euro is stronger than the 12z yesterday GEM/CMC is a bit stronger, or are you referring to Central gulf intensification

I think I saw 930's on some of the models runs last night. I think it was both the GFS and the EURO etc...But I know I saw it landfalling lower than the 950s.....Let us hope the trend continues and that shear from 95E will be more of an impact...

Unfortunately the models do not know what exactly is going to happen. We could see a 980mb cat 1 landfall or an 899mb Cat 5 landfall.(<.1%)

Haha yes, whatever happens I feel pretty confident it's gonna be in between those 2 values .

[Steve]

Am I seeing things or did the GFS initialize the 06z run down near 15N?

That seems fairly close for 1am this morning. That's about where it was (some people had it 14.5, others 15.x)

[3090]

Really?

https://i.ibb.co/x2ts8PR/Annotation-2021-08-26-071133.png

Yes, its been trending east, I don't think the panhandle sees a direct hit but IMO its more likely they do than Texas does. Still looks like a LA storm

Yes, any landfall on the AL or even MS coast and the western FL Panhandle would be in the eastern side where the worst weather resides.

This would be valid, if the system was more of a hybrid, or lopsided system. It will be very symmetrically round, with the worst of the weather extending out symmetrically from the center. The worst winds will not be impacting the Fla. panhandle, should it landfall in SElA or westward.

[Shell Mound]

If there's any bright spot, it seems like most off the models are backing off somewhat in intensity(they must be sensing Shear)....So that's a bit of good news....Maybe we'll get lucky and it will develop slower than forecasted and we'll only have a Cat 1 on our hands. Yea I know a Cat 1 is still a hurricane, but I would take a Cat 1 over a Cat 3 or 4 anyway!!!

GFS still has mid 950's and Euro is stronger than the 12z yesterday GEM/CMC is a bit stronger, or are you referring to Central gulf intensification

I think I saw 930's on some of the models runs last night. I think it was both the GFS and the EURO etc...But I know I saw it landfalling lower than the 950s.....Let us hope the trend continues and that shear from 95E will be more of an impact...

GFS:
Run...........Minimum MSLP.......Date/Time (UTC)
12Z 8/25...933.........................8/31 12Z
18Z 8/25...955.........................8/30 00Z
00Z 8/26...955.........................8/30 00Z
06Z 8/26...956.........................8/29 18Z

ECMWF:
Run...........Minimum MSLP.......Date/Time (UTC)
12Z 8/25...964.........................8/30 21Z
00Z 8/26...958.........................8/30 12Z

Along with the HWRF, the two major global models seem to be converging on a MSLP of ~945 to ~955 mb at landfall, implying a strong Category 3 (at least).

[tolakram]

Not sure why anyone is trusting any model for storm intensity. Best guess is low end cat 3 from me, I'll believe stronger once it gets in the gulf and we know what the upper air pattern is. People should be planning for a major and not hanging onto a category or two when deciding, that's for sure.

[Javlin]

Yes, its been trending east, I don't think the panhandle sees a direct hit but IMO its more likely they do than Texas does. Still looks like a LA storm

Yes, any landfall on the AL or even MS coast and the western FL Panhandle would be in the eastern side where the worst weather resides.

This would be valid, if the system was more of a hybrid, or lopsided system. It will be very symmetrically round, with the worst of the weather extending out symmetrically from the center. The worst winds will not be impacting the Fla. panhandle, should it landfall in SElA or westward.

The higher winds and Impact(surge) is always to the R/side of a system.
Read the red incorrectly my mistake.

[Steve]

Not sure why anyone is trusting any model for storm intensity. Best guess is low end cat 3 from me, I'll believe stronger once it gets in the gulf and we know what the upper air pattern is. People should be planning for a major and not hanging onto a category or two when deciding, that's for sure.

We all do it though. It's just that this one has the potential to be a little stronger which changes the dilemma.

[SoupBone]

Not sure why anyone is trusting any model for storm intensity. Best guess is low end cat 3 from me, I'll believe stronger once it gets in the gulf and we know what the upper air pattern is. People should be planning for a major and not hanging onto a category or two when deciding, that's for sure.

I would argue track as well. There's a lot of sighs of relief going on this morning in Houston, but frankly I'm not sure why. If it heads to the TX/LA border, there will be impacts to Houston.

[Rgv20]

6zGFS with a nightmare scenario of a land falling hurricane into New Orleans in a little over 3 days...Very little time for preparations.

[toad strangler]

6zGFS with a nightmare scenario of a land falling hurricane into New Orleans in a little over 3 days...Very little time for preparations.

Well, not if you did 90% plus of your preps in May like I do. Just saying.

[hurricane2025]

Nam is way west this run I know it sucks but high pressure is stout

[dantonlsu]

Nam is way west this run I know it sucks but high pressure is stout

Link?

[hurricane2025]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=30

[AerospaceEng]

ICON also coming in a bit west and showing a stronger ridge.

[jlauderdal]

Nam is way west this run I know it sucks but high pressure is stout

If it sucks why is it being posted about, forget about the NAM for now