ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[edu2703]

I thought it would be a PTC.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We've got a depression on our hands! That was pretty quick.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Now a topical depression. wow.

[tolakram]

Hey look, I was finally right about something!

[Kohlecane]

Here is how much time 99L could have over the Gulf between its Cuba and Louisiana landfalls, according to the most recent model runs.

00z Euro: ~48hr

06z GFS: 36-42hr

00z CMC: 36hr

06z ICON: 39-42hr

06z HWRF: 45-51hr

06z HMON: 36-39hr

Seems like the consensus so far is about a day and a half over water at the minimum. I’m skeptical that this’ll have 50 or more hours in the Gulf; the HWRF is probably the highest possible amount of time it’ll have.

Then again look at Michael 35 hrs Just north of Cuba is all that took

[Tireman4]

Hey look, I was finally right about something!

Oh sir, you are just too modest. You said the sun will come up this morning and whammo, it did..see?

[aspen]

Here is how much time 99L could have over the Gulf between its Cuba and Louisiana landfalls, according to the most recent model runs.

00z Euro: ~48hr

06z GFS: 36-42hr

00z CMC: 36hr

06z ICON: 39-42hr

06z HWRF: 45-51hr

06z HMON: 36-39hr

Seems like the consensus so far is about a day and a half over water at the minimum. I’m skeptical that this’ll have 50 or more hours in the Gulf; the HWRF is probably the highest possible amount of time it’ll have.

Then again look at Michael 35 hrs Just north of Cuba is all that took

It was in the Gulf for that short of a time span? I felt like it was over two days, maybe because it was already a strong TS or weak hurricane upon arrival.

[ConvergenceZone]

Are people looking at the same developing storm? I appreciate twitter for the ability to get out fast takes, but man some of these are just crazy bad IMO. We've gone from a disorganized mess that the models didn't develop until past Cuba to what appears to be a decent LLC with new convection firing and a ULL moving away toward the west. Did I mention the banding? Just my opinion.

well many of the tweets are from meteorologists of some shape or form. Not saying that it makes them more important, but I do tend to click on their name to see if they have reputable credentials or are just a average joe.....

[catskillfire51]

Does any one have input on how good the wind sites are? like Windy.com or Ventusky.com?

[Woofde]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1430894374133530631

Now the question is will they put an M on the map or just a strong hurricane.

[kevin]

Here is how much time 99L could have over the Gulf between its Cuba and Louisiana landfalls, according to the most recent model runs.

00z Euro: ~48hr

06z GFS: 36-42hr

00z CMC: 36hr

06z ICON: 39-42hr

06z HWRF: 45-51hr

06z HMON: 36-39hr

Seems like the consensus so far is about a day and a half over water at the minimum. I’m skeptical that this’ll have 50 or more hours in the Gulf; the HWRF is probably the highest possible amount of time it’ll have.

Then again look at Michael 35 hrs Just north of Cuba is all that took

It was in the Gulf for that short of a time span? I felt like it was over two days, maybe because it was already a strong TS or weak hurricane upon arrival.

It only took Michael 52 hours to go from a cat 1 to a cat 5 so a lot can happen within a day or 2. The absolute record is of course Wilma, which went from a TS to a cat 5 in an astonishing 24 hours. Not sure if that intensification will ever be topped in the Atlantic.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Those last few frames that depression really closed off incredibly quick. That was fast!.

[kevin]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1430894374133530631

Now the question is will they put an M on the map or just a strong hurricane.

My guess is 90 - 95 kt, so no M. There is still some uncertainty regarding possible disruption by Cuba, perhaps shear due to Nora and the high movement speed some models show. Maybe they will wait for the first model runs after recon has sampled the system, which also gives them a bit more time to analyze how the storm is progressing. That being said, I wouldn't disagree with them if they did already decide to put an M there now.

[mpic]

All I know is that people in Houston are writing this off this morning as a Louisiana storm and not looking back. I learned my lesson with Rita and again with Ike.

[dantonlsu]

All I know is that people in Houston are writing this off this morning as a Louisiana storm and not looking back. I learned my lesson with Rita and again with Ike.

Everyone should keep an eye out... I am interested in the NHCs track

If i recall, not too long ago all the models had Hurricane Grace going into the central GOM... It ended up burying itself in the BOC & Mexico.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1430898786042142730

[SoupBone]

All I know is that people in Houston are writing this off this morning as a Louisiana storm and not looking back. I learned my lesson with Rita and again with Ike.

Yeah, I agree and posted about it in the models thread. Not sure why there's so much confidence without a center. There will be impacts in Houston if it heads to the border.

[jaxfladude]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

[jlauderdal]

All I know is that people in Houston are writing this off this morning as a Louisiana storm and not looking back. I learned my lesson with Rita and again with Ike.

Everyone should keep an eye out... I am interested in the NHCs track

If i recall, not too long ago all the models had Hurricane Grace going into the central GOM... It ended up burying itself in the BOC & Mexico.

True but this is a very different setup and we have close agreement on the modeling, start your preps on the northern gulf coast today

[BigB0882]

If and hopefully not but if Ida(99L) is as bad as forecast and impacts are large enough to be retired from the rotating hurricane naming lists, should the WMO consider removing the letter "I"?

Why? What would that do? Hurricanes don't choose to become destructive because they know the first letter of their name. It would just mean that J names would be in that sweet spot.