ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[PavelGaborik]

I'm afraid all bets are off intensity wise if it doesn't sheared by the Pacific system.

A scary, scary situation is unfolding.

[aspen]

That’s a bowl of Yikes Crispies right there. Right up the Loop Current for over a full day…

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeah, 95 knot peak is pretty aggressive. They're probably internally expecting it to be much higher.

[AlphaToOmega]

[Kazmit]

It's all too often that in the Gulf, time is the only inhibiting factor.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, 95 knot peak is pretty aggressive. They're probably internally expecting it to be much higher.

Imho a high end cat 2 prediction on first advisory would plausibly translate to a major hurricane in reality, but yeah I agree, NHC does oftentimes remain conservative but for good reason

[skyline385]

wow when was the last time NHC forecast a high Cat2 in their first advisory? This is pretty nuts...

[Sciencerocks]

[edu2703]

wow when was the last time NHC forecast a high Cat2 in their first advisory? This is pretty nuts...

Iota last year

[skyline385]

wow when was the last time NHC forecast a high Cat2 in their first advisory? This is pretty nuts...

Iota last year

Well we all know how that ended...

[underthwx]

:double:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al09/ohcnfcst/2021al09_ohcnfcst_202108261200.gif
That’s a bowl of Yikes Crispies right there. Right up the Loop Current for over a full day…

Certainly no Yikes Crispies treats...

[AlphaToOmega]

I am not sure if this was posted in this thread already, but apparently, 20 people died from the precursor wave to Tropical Depression 09L.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/26/death-toll-rises-to-at-least-20-in-western-venezuela-floods

[Category5Kaiju]

Hey guys, remember that time when we had like no major hurricane strikes on the CONUS for 11 years straight? Good old times..

[capNstorms]

as NINE approaches the GOM, I believe the high is dipping further south and way west forcing this into Texas just my .02c

[tolakram]

Everyone, a general reminder.

keep in mind that nerves are going to be on edge as this system approaches the coast. Please try and keep posts mature, don't post one liners, and if you see a problem post please use the report button rather than reply. In fast moving threads the mods might not see an offending post, reporting helps us a great deal! Thanks.

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like land interaction with Cuba has no effect at all. I suppose it's too narrow so it's going to be pulling from a lot of water at all times.

The big question for me is how much does in strengthen before Cuba (the next ~30 hours). Currently they only forecast a TS when it gets to Cuba but if it hits hurricane status and gets well-organized before then, the run through the Gulf could crank it up in an extreme manner.

If it stays disorganized until Cuba, then it will hopefully just run out of time to become extreme (not that Cat 2-3 isn't serious of course).

[SoupBone]

as NINE approaches the GOM, I believe the high is dipping further south and way west forcing this into Texas just my .02c

There's no evidence of this right now so what makes you think this will occur?

[underthwx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9735/7vAXQm.gif

Lookin like 9 is fixin to wind up.. hopefully shear or something will prevent a higher intensity cyclone...

[Fancy1001]

Looks like this might be another I storm to remember, or should I say retire. They’re going to run out of them eventually.

[Teban54]

It's all too often that in the Gulf, time is the only inhibiting factor.

I'm starting to miss the early 2000s when most Gulf storms would be weakening when approaching landfall, not strengthening like Michael, Laura and Zeta.