2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Don’t speak too soon. Late in this GFS run it looks like the ridge may build back in. Of course this is out in lala land but I don’t think an OTS track is guaranteed with anything just yet.

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Recurve near 50-60w is still the most likely outcome on the European ensembles.

[jlauderdal]

To be honest this is one reason I do not use storm 2 k like I use too. So many people say OTS or dry air or talk about the " shredder" with every storm. The site is not just as interesting to me like it used to be. Maybe I am being to honest.

Its a discussion board...we discuss various scenarios...always refer to the nhc for the best track forecast

However......... because this IS a discussion board, one need always "consider the source" as well. Any bobble-head can blurt out an opinion. If you take the time, you'll come to recognize some posters here to be less flippant and a bit more grounded in their analysis.

1. Consider a posters location: is the location dictating the opinion-"-removed-"
2. Number of posts: experience matters in the tropics, its not all about eye candy model runs like the hwrf but those runs can be right, the gulf is very favorable now so the hwrf intensity isn't crazy on 99L. However, a big post count can be from just posting maps, discos, etc so be careful
3. Longevity: length matters, the more rodeos one has seen the more likely they are to know what is really happening and going to happen but its the tropics so rarely is their a sure bet especially with the intensity
4. Post Style: Just because a post has technical terms and the poster seems to be "smarter" than others doesn't mean they are being used correctly in the post or the context is correct, seen many of those posters come and go over the last 17 years on this board.
5. Catch up on the last few hours of posts before starting to reply, you may have missed something important and your question was already answered.

If you don't like the tone of the board or its not interesting, you are free to not view the board. If you really enjoy the board, MAKE A DONATION. Think about the amount of time, entertainment, the knowledge you are getting.

[Shell Mound]

Don’t speak too soon. Late in this GFS run it looks like the ridge may build back in. Of course this is out in lala land but I don’t think an OTS track is guaranteed with anything just yet.

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Recurve near 50-60w is still the most likely outcome on the European ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/PqJ5vtdV/EDC3-F839-09-B6-43-D1-9031-610-ECDF8-A903.png

However, most members have trended weaker and farther southwest by day seven. A weaker, faster system would be likely to track farther W before turning.

[chris_fit]

Don’t speak too soon. Late in this GFS run it looks like the ridge may build back in. Of course this is out in lala land but I don’t think an OTS track is guaranteed with anything just yet.

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Recurve near 50-60w is still the most likely outcome on the European ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/PqJ5vtdV/EDC3-F839-09-B6-43-D1-9031-610-ECDF8-A903.png

00Z Euro Oper Agrees --->

[aspen]

Quite a strong signal for a MDR major from the Euro. The current track of a recurve around 50-55W along with quick development should give the basin a massive boost in ACE. If neither 97L nor 98L develop, this will be Julian.

[Blown Away]

Don’t speak too soon. Late in this GFS run it looks like the ridge may build back in. Of course this is out in lala land but I don’t think an OTS track is guaranteed with anything just yet.

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Recurve near 50-60w is still the most likely outcome on the European ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/PqJ5vtdV/EDC3-F839-09-B6-43-D1-9031-610-ECDF8-A903.png

00Z Euro Oper Agrees --->

https://i.imgur.com/dbyDrBu.gif

00z EURO continues to show a strong low moving off Africa in a few days and becoming a strong system in the Central Atlantic. No way you can make a final "fish" call 7+ days out. Euro/GFS have been flopping by hundreds of miles in that 7-10 day window,

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF thick line is Operational, thin line is ens mean...

[Kohlecane]

12z GFS has future Ida's sibling coming through the same doorway

[IcyTundra]

GFS has been insisting on another storm developing in the Carribean late next week... Ida 2.0? It has been consistent in showing development in that area late next week for over a week now kind of similar to how the GFS was consistently showing soon to be Ida forming for well over a week. The GFS' consistency with this potential development makes me think it could be on to something.



Has a TD forming 6-7 days from now which is close enough out that the GFS may be on to something.

[IcyTundra]

12z GFS has future Ida's sibling coming through the same doorway

GFS has been consistent in developing it for over a week now very consistent... Has a TD forming 6-7 days from now in the Carribean so it's not like this is fantasy land. With it only being about a week out from potential development and the GFS' consistency with developing it for over a week now I think the GFS may be on to something. I think the CMC also shows development in this area.

[Teban54]

GFS has been insisting on another storm developing in the Carribean late next week... Ida 2.0? It has been consistent in showing development in that area late next week for over a week now kind of similar to how the GFS was consistently showing soon to be Ida forming for well over a week. The GFS' consistency with this potential development makes me think it could be on to something.

https://i.ibb.co/FX5SMR6/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-180.gif

Has a TD forming 6-7 days from now which is close enough out that the GFS may be on to something.

Hopefully the waters in the Caribbean and Gulf won't be nearly as warm as the ones TD9/Ida will tap into (should this storm develop), but that might be wishful thinking.

[IcyTundra]

GFS has been insisting on another storm developing in the Carribean late next week... Ida 2.0? It has been consistent in showing development in that area late next week for over a week now kind of similar to how the GFS was consistently showing soon to be Ida forming for well over a week. The GFS' consistency with this potential development makes me think it could be on to something.

https://i.ibb.co/FX5SMR6/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-180.gif

Has a TD forming 6-7 days from now which is close enough out that the GFS may be on to something.

Hopefully the waters in the Caribbean and Gulf won't be nearly as warm as the ones TD9/Ida will tap into (should this storm develop), but that might be wishful thinking.

Would really depend on the track this potential storm would take. If it takes a track further west than Ida then it would mostly miss the cooler waters left by Ida.

[IcyTundra]

12Z CMC like the 12Z GFS shows a TD forming next Wednesday evening.

[Kohlecane]

Okay so GFS is just rude want's to take it to TX/LA border as a Cat 4, at this point and after and still currently dealing with soon to be IDA, if this plays out we shouldn't focus on a location but rather another potential CONUS impact

[IcyTundra]

Okay so GFS is just rude want's to take it to TX/LA border as a Cat 4, at this point and after and still currently dealing with soon to be IDA, if this plays out we shouldn't focus on a location but rather another potential CONUS impact

Yeah we have 0 clue where this would potentially go but the GFS has consistently been showing something forming next week and getting into the gulf by Labor Day weekend.

[SoupBone]

GFS is known to spin up phantoms though, so even though I am obviously paying attention like the rest of you, when other models start seeing it, I'll start getting more concerned. I do think the CMC showed it too heading toward the panhandle. So it's not completely out there.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Two majors in the span of a week. Very rare. Reminds me if it does occur of ETA and IOTA. lets hope this does not come to fruition. Louisiana may have angered Mother Nature significantly.

[SoupBone]

Two majors in the span of a week. Very rare. Reminds me if it does occur of ETA and IOTA. lets hope this does not come to fruition. Louisiana may have angered Mother Nature significantly.

In my family, we laugh and say it's the LSU championship. It was just too perfect of a season, so someone made a deal.

[aspen]

GFS recurves the 8/31 wave earlier than pretty much every model run before it, but that is due to 98L wandering around the Azores for a while and continuing to weaken the ridge, instead of quickly being ejected into colder waters and dying.

[SoupBone]

GFS recurves the 8/31 wave earlier than pretty much every model run before it, but that is due to 98L wandering around the Azores for a while and continuing to weaken the ridge, instead of quickly being ejected into colder waters and dying.

CMC takes it to the panhandle of Florida again.