ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/89VvlmoNKko[/youtube]

[jlauderdal]

Hmm, wonder when the Weather Channel will begin their 24 hour coverage? Not a big fan of the weather channel anymore, but they still have the best hurricane coverage/updates....I don't have comcast anymore which is why I subscribe to the streaming service Frndly during the summer(just to get the weather channel) and then cancel it after hurricane season is over

You have 24/7 here, no need for twc

[Category5Kaiju]

...quotes from model thread...but did not want to clutter the forum with non model discussion...

GFS, CMC and EURO are showing New Orleans hits. Hopefully that changes.

Not if you are east or west of NO

I get that and meant to put a disclaimer in my post addressing the issue. That said, a direct hit on New Orleans would be worse from the overall humanitarian perspective. Other places can take along the gulf coast can take a direct hit much better and with a limited risk of lost lives, however it is still devastating for those who lose their homes.

With the vulnerable population and potential of levees failing, the storm missing New Orleans is a better scenario. Ideally the best outcome(besides a weak storm) would be for it to hit in sparsely populated areas, but again it is still bad for those who get hit.

Yeah, New Orleans is still visibly scarred from Katrina, so a major hurricane (let alone a 3 or 4) hitting the still-recovering city directly would be unbelievably devastating. And a 5? Yeah, I would rather not think about that.

[toad strangler]

Hmm, wonder when the Weather Channel will begin their 24 hour coverage? Not a big fan of the weather channel anymore, but they still have the best hurricane coverage/updates....I don't have comcast anymore which is why I subscribe to the streaming service Frndly during the summer(just to get the weather channel) and then cancel it after hurricane season is over

Weather Nation looks like a cool start up. They have Josh Morgerman (iCyclone) signed up to do in the field storm reports for them.

[Steve]

Hmm, wonder when the Weather Channel will begin their 24 hour coverage? Not a big fan of the weather channel anymore, but they still have the best hurricane coverage/updates....I don't have comcast anymore which is why I subscribe to the streaming service Frndly during the summer(just to get the weather channel) and then cancel it after hurricane season is over

You have 24/7 here, no need for twc

Indeed. I > Cantore.

[WiscoWx02]

Well there goes that last bit of wishful thinking

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430907314391830537

[jaxfladude]

Latest on the Recon Delay? Sorry was out for errands....

[Stormgodess]

...quotes from model thread...but did not want to clutter the forum with non model discussion...

Not if you are east or west of NO

I get that and meant to put a disclaimer in my post addressing the issue. That said, a direct hit on New Orleans would be worse from the overall humanitarian perspective. Other places can take along the gulf coast can take a direct hit much better and with a limited risk of lost lives, however it is still devastating for those who lose their homes.

With the vulnerable population and potential of levees failing, the storm missing New Orleans is a better scenario. Ideally the best outcome(besides a weak storm) would be for it to hit in sparsely populated areas, but again it is still bad for those who get hit.

Yeah, New Orleans is still visibly scarred from Katrina, so a major hurricane (let alone a 3 or 4) hitting the still-recovering city directly would be unbelievably devastating. And a 5? Yeah, I would rather not think about that.

And another thing... If evacuations from New Orleans start.... Its going to be hard for any of us to get anywhere unless we leave early.

That is the hardest part of all this every year for me. We live in an area that isnt on the coast but in the area north of lake maurepas typically far enough off coast to be safe, unless the conditions just right then we can get hit pretty bad. For us we never know until last minute if its bad enough to leave. Is it coming in at high tide? Our issue is river flooding. If the lakes have storm surge and the rivers cant drain we get flooding. Then whether or not it will be strong enough inland to do serious wind damage. We had trees down during both Katrina and Gustav. Flooding from Isaac and Major flooding in 2016. Even having all the info, I nevver know until last minute what to do and that kills me. Plus right now my daughter is about to have a baby any day now, and she also has a two yr old. Being stuck in a storm OR in evacuation traffic could be a serious situation

[galaxy401]

Had a feeling it would be a TD when I woke up. Not liking that 110 mph on just the first advisory. At this point, you got to hope it clips Cuba enough to inhibit it from strengthening more in the Gulf.

[InfernoFlameCat]

...quotes from model thread...but did not want to clutter the forum with non model discussion...



I get that and meant to put a disclaimer in my post addressing the issue. That said, a direct hit on New Orleans would be worse from the overall humanitarian perspective. Other places can take along the gulf coast can take a direct hit much better and with a limited risk of lost lives, however it is still devastating for those who lose their homes.

With the vulnerable population and potential of levees failing, the storm missing New Orleans is a better scenario. Ideally the best outcome(besides a weak storm) would be for it to hit in sparsely populated areas, but again it is still bad for those who get hit.

Yeah, New Orleans is still visibly scarred from Katrina, so a major hurricane (let alone a 3 or 4) hitting the still-recovering city directly would be unbelievably devastating. And a 5? Yeah, I would rather not think about that.

And another thing... If evacuations from New Orleans start.... Its going to be hard for any of us to get anywhere unless we leave early.

That is the hardest part of all this every year for me. We live in an area that isnt on the coast but in the area north of lake maurepas typically far enough off coast to be safe, unless the conditions just right then we can get hit pretty bad. For us we never know until last minute if its bad enough to leave. Is it coming in at high tide? Our issue is river flooding. If the lakes have storm surge and the rivers cant drain we get flooding. Then whether or not it will be strong enough inland to do serious wind damage. We had trees down during both Katrina and Gustav. Flooding from Isaac and Major flooding in 2016. Even having all the info, I nevver know until last minute what to do and that kills me. Plus right now my daughter is about to have a baby any day now, and she also has a two yr old. Being stuck in a storm OR in evacuation traffic could be a serious situation

Seek guidance from your local weather station on that. They should be able to provide necessary information.

[Blinhart]

Had a feeling it would be a TD when I woke up. Not liking that 110 mph on just the first advisory. At this point, you got to hope it clips Cuba enough to inhibit it from strengthening more in the Gulf.

Not liking the 110 either, hoping that is max, but thinking 140 is a possibility. Starting to figure out exactly what I need to do around the house since there is a possibility I could be going through the eye of this storm.

[Teban54]

Had a feeling it would be a TD when I woke up. Not liking that 110 mph on just the first advisory. At this point, you got to hope it clips Cuba enough to inhibit it from strengthening more in the Gulf.

Unfortunately, it seems that clipping Cuba further east will send TD9/Ida directly over the waters with the highest OHC currently (plus a more likely landfall in NOLA), while a track further west means less interaction with Cuba to disrupt the core. It will be bad either way...

[UTSARoadrunner4]

How high are the odds this becomes a Category 5 in the Gulf?

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, wonder when the Weather Channel will begin their 24 hour coverage? Not a big fan of the weather channel anymore, but they still have the best hurricane coverage/updates....I don't have comcast anymore which is why I subscribe to the streaming service Frndly during the summer(just to get the weather channel) and then cancel it after hurricane season is over

You have 24/7 here, no need for twc

I have to disagree, Sorry but this doesn't offer nice video footage, preparation footage, top of the line landfall footage etc....The weather channel does.... This forum is great for discussing though and getting information quicker...

[BobHarlem]

Had a feeling it would be a TD when I woke up. Not liking that 110 mph on just the first advisory. At this point, you got to hope it clips Cuba enough to inhibit it from strengthening more in the Gulf.

The NHC track takes it over the warmest part of the Gulf, 110mph seems like a conservative first forecast. I don't think we'll have a decent handle on that until after it goes past Cuba, though.

Looks like Recon just managed to sneak out of BIloxi though between the thunderstorms.

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest on the Recon Delay? Sorry was out for errands....

Weather looks to have calmed down in Coastal Mississippi. Hopefully they will be able to go with wheels up soon. Radar looks good.

[StPeteMike]

I feel for the Upper Gulf Coast, they never seem to get a break in the past few years. Seeing Ida aimed for LA and models showing another storm forecasting for the Gulf right after Ida, it’s unfortunate since many of these areas haven’t even recovered from the past few seasons. And we’re not even at the peak yet…

[galaxy401]

Had a feeling it would be a TD when I woke up. Not liking that 110 mph on just the first advisory. At this point, you got to hope it clips Cuba enough to inhibit it from strengthening more in the Gulf.

Not liking the 110 either, hoping that is max, but thinking 140 is a possibility. Starting to figure out exactly what I need to do around the house since there is a possibility I could be going through the eye of this storm.

Yeah seeing 110 in just the first advisory is very concerning since the NHC usually doesn’t forecast that strong already. Someone last night predicted it to reach 110 on the first advisory. They predicted that nicely.

[GCANE]

Looking at MIMIC-TPW and LL WV.
There could be a possibility of some dry-air intrusion starting tomorrow.
Need to watch this closely.

[StPeteMike]

Had a feeling it would be a TD when I woke up. Not liking that 110 mph on just the first advisory. At this point, you got to hope it clips Cuba enough to inhibit it from strengthening more in the Gulf.

The NHC track takes it over the warmest part of the Gulf, 110mph seems like a conservative first forecast. I don't think we'll have a decent handle on that until after it goes past Cuba, though.

Looks like Recon just managed to sneak out of BIloxi though between the thunderstorms.

It’s hard to not believe Ida will repeat the same acts of other big name storms that travel over the hot waters and explode in strength (and likely size). Would have to take other factors like shear to prevent such a thing from occurring and I think everyone is coming to agreement that shear will not have an impact.