2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge seems to build back in tandem with the Euro wave coming off Africa on the 30th.

[SFLcane]

The pattern since the NAO went negative around Aug 10th, the PNA went negative which pumped up ridging across the western Atlantic Basin and SE Canada.
I don't see a +PNA returning any time soon.

https://i.imgur.com/DuBjX7x.gif

What’s your take on the over 500mb steering long range?

The pattern is already set, what we’ve been seeing is what we will continue to see through at least October.

NDG, Everything on the euro guidance screams quick recurve. Numerous trofs waiting to pick it up and a thin ridge. Correct me if I am wrong

[NDG]

What’s your take on the over 500mb steering long range?

The pattern is already set, what we’ve been seeing is what we will continue to see through at least October.

NDG, Everything on the euro guidance screams quick recurve. Numerous trofs waiting to pick it up and a thin ridge. Correct me if I am wrong

Anything that doesn't develop that far east will have a chance to make it to the western basin, they have all been in fairly low latitude which has been the pattern so far this season.
Look at 99L, it mostly came out of the ITCZ, I wouldn't be paying too much attention at anything that tries to develop out that far in the eastern basin, it has been hostile any way but I am sure we will see a few develop and go out to sea like a majority of them do later in September.

[WiscoWx02]

Here comes the big bad wolf
Rough couple of weeks ahead

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1430903123120295944

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1430755759147700224

[Steve]

In case anyone was wondering about the MJO, you probably guessed right.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

And here's the Kelvin Wave moving in:
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

[Blown Away]

Strange pattern with troughing everywhere. Systems making sharp right turns from low latitudes in Central Atlantic and unfortunately for NW Caribbean & NGOM systems in that area like Ida will go Northerly.

[SFLcane]

Pattern change potentially coming showing up on the cfs ensembles with more ridging established.

[SFLcane]

I am beginning to think this year is like 2020 Where we get one big CV storm (teddy) that curves. CV seasons have been lame recently Other then 2017. I am very concerned for Florida this late September especially into October. I think with La Niña around it’s going to be an all out assault coming from there. Also I would be surprised if Caribbean stuff tracks like in 2020 (towards Louisiana) as the Ridge isn't as strong this year. We are just getting started and it would not surprise me one bit to see 50+ ace just in the month of October alone.

[AlphaToOmega]

Hurricane Ida is on track to become a major hurricane. Invests 97L and 98L both seem promising for development. Should this happen, it would end off August 2021 with 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Because this hurricane season is expected to be back-loaded with an impending La Nina and because September seems quite favorable for development, it would not take much to exhaust the current naming list. This season may be a very historic hurricane season, rivalling 1933, 2005, and 2020.

[AlphaToOmega]

Below-average MSLPs throughout the entire Atlantic forecasted for early and mid September

[AlphaToOmega]

September is going to be a critical month for this hurricane season. If September is really active (8 or more storms), it would mean 2021 is on track with seasons such as 2020 and 2005. If September is not really active, it would mean 2021 is on track with seasons such as 1995 and 2011. As of now, September seems to be really favorable for tropical development, and it would not surprise me if 2021 ends up rivaling 2020 and 2005. Rising air over Africa and the Indian Ocean would support very strong tropical waves, and sinking air over the Pacific Ocean and the Americas would support a suppressed East Pacific season.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431679649004679168

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431679649004679168

One of the EPS models show another strong system taking a similar track to Ida.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1431804854444437506

[tolakram]

Yes, we beat 2013

[weeniepatrol]

Yes, we beat 2013

Hallelujah!

[weeniepatrol]

Death, taxes, and the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season

[aspen]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

[toad strangler]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

That was done two weeks ago