ATL: IDA - Models

[InfernoFlameCat]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

If this would come to truth, that would destroy almost all of South Louisiana south of I-10, don't know what 200 MPH storm would do.

Also, the NAM 2km has this as a Pinhole eye monster . . .

NAM is just tropical candy.

[Blinhart]

3 days is plenty if people did what they should of at the beginning of the season and if they didn't its still plenty of time, get ready

The models are locked in now so everyone from the LA/TX border east to Mobile needs to prepare for a major hurricane direct hit, its no more complicated than that.

So anyone in this area that needs to evacuate needs to start now, you do realize how large an area you are talking about, there aren’t that many hotels available within 500 miles. Just saying maybe we need it narrowed down a little bit.

I havent seen anyone calling for evacuations.

Usually local government officials do that once watches and warning go up, and after more than 1 advisory. So we will probably start seeing evacuation orders Friday morning (starting with Grand Isle and areas around there first), I'm sure Oil companies have already started shutting down their rigs and started planning their evacuation. Some hotels still have people from Hurricane Laura and Delta staying in them so got to find hotels for them first before finding other hotels for more evacuees. There is still COVID protocols in effect for evacuation orders.

[HurryKane]

I am in Pass Christian, MGC, 28ft of surge in Katrina, lost it all. I am SO stressed right now. Local WM is closing today at 2 due to Covid outbreak, do I make a trip for supplies? Start preparing to evacuate? HELP. I am limited financially due to just paying an astronomical NFIP premium, ironic huh?

Hi Christiana, I am nearby and am preparing as if this were going to be a duplicate of Zeta. Definitely recommend making a trip for supplies and going over your evacuation plan to see if there’s anything you might need to complete in the next two days. That stress is an awful feeling, sending you hugs.

[underthwx]

So what would you suggest for us to plan for a Cat 3, which would be 1 category higher right now, or a Cat 4 which would be one category higher for this afternoon, or a Cat 5 which might be a possibility tomorrow or the next day? And we could start feeling weather from this system Saturday night, Sunday morning, when should we be doing all this planning? This situation is actually quite nerve racking.

Just plan for worst case scenario. Start today. Fill cars up with gas. Get some cash from ATM... power goes out..no gas or teller machines. Fill up any containers you have with water and put in freezer...it will keep your frozen foods colder, ...longer, can also drink it as it melts. Fill up bathtub with water, can use to flush toilets. Have plenty of flashlights and batteries. Canned foods and a regular old manual can opener as well, Tomorrow will be Chaos, if it isnt already.

I do that normally, just asking the question because of what was said earlier.

I understand.....and I truly wish you the best, throughout whatever may occur..be safe

[bella_may]

I am in Pass Christian, MGC, 28ft of surge in Katrina, lost it all. I am SO stressed right now. Local WM is closing today at 2 due to Covid outbreak, do I make a trip for supplies? Start preparing to evacuate? HELP. I am limited financially due to just paying an astronomical NFIP premium, ironic huh?

I would definitely prepare for the worst just in case. At least get the basic supplies (water,bread,etc). If you’re unable to drive far, look at possible local shelters to go to if you’re in a spot that deals with bad storm surge just to be prepared.

Last season most people around here didn’t take Zeta serious because it was supposed to only be a minimal hurricane. Never again!

[Steve]

I am in Pass Christian, MGC, 28ft of surge in Katrina, lost it all. I am SO stressed right now. Local WM is closing today at 2 due to Covid outbreak, do I make a trip for supplies? Start preparing to evacuate? HELP. I am limited financially due to just paying an astronomical NFIP premium, ironic huh?

Hi Christiana, I am nearby and am preparing as if this were going to be a duplicate of Zeta. Definitely recommend making a trip for supplies and going over your evacuation plan to see if there’s anything you might need to complete in the next two days. That stress is an awful feeling, sending you hugs.

One of the biggest differences between this and Zeta will be the duration. Zeta, though it had a punch, was PDQ. In New Orleans, we might have had 3 1/2 hours of weather, and the eye passed over us. This is a day+ and a foot or more of rain. Should be much stronger overall even though Zeta was fairly strong just at landfall and quickly faded out.

[LAwxrgal]

I am in Pass Christian, MGC, 28ft of surge in Katrina, lost it all. I am SO stressed right now. Local WM is closing today at 2 due to Covid outbreak, do I make a trip for supplies? Start preparing to evacuate? HELP. I am limited financially due to just paying an astronomical NFIP premium, ironic huh?

Hi Christiana, I am nearby and am preparing as if this were going to be a duplicate of Zeta. Definitely recommend making a trip for supplies and going over your evacuation plan to see if there’s anything you might need to complete in the next two days. That stress is an awful feeling, sending you hugs.

One of the biggest differences between this and Zeta will be the duration. Zeta, though it had a punch, was PDQ. In New Orleans, we might have had 3 1/2 hours of weather, and the eye passed over us. This is a day+ and a foot or more of rain. Should be much stronger overall even though Zeta was fairly strong just at landfall and quickly faded out.

Also, wasn't Zeta merging with a cold front at the time of landfall? And was in late October around Halloween. Soon to be Ida will occur in late August, peak of the season.

[Steve]

^^ Yes and yes.

HMON is out to 69 hours. Roughly 26.4N, 89.2W. This is further south than most of the other models. HMON is kind of a joke most of the time anyway up until 3 days. But it does show it at 985mb at that point (4am Sunday). We'll see if it cranks it up and what trajectory it wants it to come in at. HWRF still too early.

[captainbarbossa19]

It looks like the 12z GEFS is more west than the operational GFS. Some members still show landfall as far west as the LA/TX state line.

[Frank P]

Hi Christiana, I am nearby and am preparing as if this were going to be a duplicate of Zeta. Definitely recommend making a trip for supplies and going over your evacuation plan to see if there’s anything you might need to complete in the next two days. That stress is an awful feeling, sending you hugs.

One of the biggest differences between this and Zeta will be the duration. Zeta, though it had a punch, was PDQ. In New Orleans, we might have had 3 1/2 hours of weather, and the eye passed over us. This is a day+ and a foot or more of rain. Should be much stronger overall even though Zeta was fairly strong just at landfall and quickly faded out.

Also, wasn't Zeta merging with a cold front at the time of landfall? And was in late October around Halloween. Soon to be Ida will occur in late August, peak of the season.

If 9 comes in at a full blown Cat 3, anywhere near the path of Zeta, the damage and surge will be much greater on the MS coast as it will be a mature well developed Hurricane much longer than Zeta was, but the critical factor will the speed and the long duration of hurricane force winds and rain. Best I can recall I might have gotten a couple of 100 mph gusts and sustain winds at 70 mph from Zeta and I live on the beach in Biloxi… 9 could be a completely different ball game… IMO

[AlabamaDave]

How dependent on angle of approach is high storm surge along the Mississippi Gulf Coast? I have seen a couple of comments comparing this to Katrina, but the angle of movement across the coastline (and projected landfall location) are quite different. Camille and Katrina both came right into the MS coastline on an almost due north path (more NNW with Camille). Also wondering about New Orleans. The city fared pretty well with Gustav, and the projected path of this storm looks closer to Gustav than Katrina. Hoping the improved levees prevent any major flooding.

[supercane4867]

Both HWRF and HMON indicate that the potential passage of western Cuba may widen the wind field significantly, leading to a massive surge producer down the line.

[BobHarlem]

12z hmon

[Steve]

How dependent on angle of approach is high storm surge along the Mississippi Gulf Coast? I have seen a couple of comments comparing this to Katrina, but the angle of movement across the coastline (and projected landfall location) are quite different. Camille and Katrina both came right into the MS coastline on an almost due north path (more NNW with Camille). Also wondering about New Orleans. The city fared pretty well with Gustav, and the projected path of this storm looks closer to Gustav than Katrina. Hoping the improved levees prevent any major flooding.

The waters are very shallow off most of the MS Coast. I think the angle has more to do with who gets what.

As for New Orleans, Gustav hit pretty far to our SW and hooked left. We were on the right side of the storm, but it was displaced a good 60ish miles SW of here. It was a wobbly and unstacked, lower-end Cat 2. Something bigger and stronger could test the levees. Last real hit we got was Isaac in 2012. The levees held, but it was a 1. 99% of the metro lost power, so rest assured there will be a repeat with a stronger storm taking a similar track.

[tolakram]

HWRF so far

[capNstorms]

i'm not trying to jump the gun here but if that ridge strengthens instead of weakens we might have a hell of a season in just a month lol

[Steve]

the monster that comes in the gulf of mexico after this one... YIKES https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_49.png

yeah, CMC was the first to kind of show that a couple days back, and then the GFS joined the party. Nothing nice. I know that earlier runs had this more of a Brownsville type issue, but there will be no rest for the wicked.

[Steve]

HWRF making a run for Category 3 as it nears the coast @ 955mb. Still has some time to deepen.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=78

[LAwxrgal]

How dependent on angle of approach is high storm surge along the Mississippi Gulf Coast? I have seen a couple of comments comparing this to Katrina, but the angle of movement across the coastline (and projected landfall location) are quite different. Camille and Katrina both came right into the MS coastline on an almost due north path (more NNW with Camille). Also wondering about New Orleans. The city fared pretty well with Gustav, and the projected path of this storm looks closer to Gustav than Katrina. Hoping the improved levees prevent any major flooding.

The waters are very shallow off most of the MS Coast. I think the angle has more to do with who gets what.

As for New Orleans, Gustav hit pretty far to our SW and hooked left. We were on the right side of the storm, but it was displaced a good 60ish miles SW of here. It was a wobbly and unstacked, lower-end Cat 2. Something bigger and stronger could test the levees. Last real hit we got was Isaac in 2012. The levees held, but it was a 1. 99% of the metro lost power, so rest assured there will be a repeat with a stronger storm taking a similar track.

And some places outside of levee protection that did not flood for Katrina flooded real bad with Isaac.

[txwatcher91]

HWRF a 942mb bomb at landfall.