ATL: IDA - Models

[Steve]

Good point. I was thinking in terms of wind and not water My house is at a high elevation but loosened up tree root balls are a thing too.

Hi Christiana, I am nearby and am preparing as if this were going to be a duplicate of Zeta. Definitely recommend making a trip for supplies and going over your evacuation plan to see if there’s anything you might need to complete in the next two days. That stress is an awful feeling, sending you hugs.

One of the biggest differences between this and Zeta will be the duration. Zeta, though it had a punch, was PDQ. In New Orleans, we might have had 3 1/2 hours of weather, and the eye passed over us. This is a day+ and a foot or more of rain. Should be much stronger overall even though Zeta was fairly strong just at landfall and quickly faded out.

You can get decent windspeeds over on weather.us You might have to subscribe to get the best stuff. But they have all that on their modeling. It's probably the best site to get models, but I'm always getting lost on it.

[Tireman4]

A sigh of relief was let out all over Houston today with those models. Prayers to my guys and gals in LA

Not at least until the 00Z models with the new center fix runs are done. Even then, I'm in the fully inland and dissipated crowd.

I am with Soup on this one. Until this system is long gone and dissipated, no one should breathe a sigh of relief. Dr. Neil Frank preached this over and over. We have had our share ( Allison, Ike and Harvey) to know to be always ever vigilant. I think the 00Z models will tell us much more, in the long run. Just my opinion

[Blinhart]

So what I'm getting from these models is that everything depends on how strong the ridge is and how large of a ridge it is on the exact path of how far NW it will go before turning N then NE. This could be a very interesting 72 hours. I have about 48 hours before deciding if I bug out.

[jaguars_22]

The good ole reliable Nam shows Texas again

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS a bit further to the east through 48 hours.

[skyline385]

Looks like 18Z GFS initialized Ida a bit too strong at 998mb

[tolakram]

Looks like 18Z GFS initialized Ida a bit too strong at 998mb

Looks fine to me.

[tolakram]

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS looks to be a little weaker at landfall than the 12Z run.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS Grand Isle, LA landfall 1 PM central time on Sunday.

[Steve]

18Z GFS Grand Isle, LA landfall 1 PM central time on Sunday.

Looks like the eye will pass right over the Westbank and City of New Orleans.

[karenfromheaven]

Experimental (developmental) model HAFS. Pick a version, any version. Frightening.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wonder if TS Nora in the EPAC is having an effect on the timing for the GFS? That's the main thing I noticed that was different vs the Euro when it came to why the GFS is nearly a day ahead. The GFS outright dissipates Nora over Mexico, whereas the ECMWF keeps it alive and strengthens it.

[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS a bit further to the east through 48 hours.

Im issuing a board warning for any NAM posts, lol.

[underthwx]

I wonder what the models are predicting with the ridge in the SE CONUS?....can one of you provide me a link to view the different models for this?.... Thank you!...

[Blinhart]

I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.

[Steve]

I wonder what the models are predicting with the ridge in the SE CONUS?....can one of you provide me a link to view the different models for this?.... Thank you!...

If you use Tropical Tidbits, it's really easy (also easy on the NCEP site).

1) So click here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

2) Pick your model of choice (start in Global)

3) Scroll down to the bar below the map that says "Upper Dynamics"

4) Click that and pick "500mb Height and MSLP (mean sea level pressure)

Press play arrow. The darker/redder the colors, the stronger the high pressure is. The more toward yellow, green, blue, etc. the lower the pressure. Hit me with a PM if you don't understand it.

[underthwx]

I wonder what the models are predicting with the ridge in the SE CONUS?....can one of you provide me a link to view the different models for this?.... Thank you!...

If you use Tropical Tidbits, it's really easy (also easy on the NCEP site).

1) So click here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

2) Pick your model of choice (start in Global)

3) Scroll down to the bar below the map that says "Upper Dynamics"

4) Click that and pick "500mb Height and MSLP (mean sea level pressure)

Press play arrow. The darker/redder the colors, the stronger the high pressure is. The more toward yellow, green, blue, etc. the lower the pressure. Hit me with a PM if you don't understand it.

Steve....thankyou so much for your reply...and the information!....I appreciate your help....have a great evening!