ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[underthwx]

Tropical Storm Ida

9-3-1

I suspect Ida won't be known as a "Tropical Storm" for very long though.

Historical note: Ida was the replacement name for 2003's Isabel. 2009's Ida also approached the Gulf Coast as a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/igSJ6HU.jpg

Are you thinking it's a Hurricane prior to entering the Gulf?....

Very real possibility. GFS & HWRF get it close. My guess is 60 knots before Cuba.

Thankyou for your reply...

[aspen]

This is a six hour old TC. Of course it’s gonna look rather rough. It’ll be slow to improve for the next day or so, but should be a better TS by late tonight into early tomorrow.

Honestly does not look that rough. A little sheared but a solid and organizing 35 knot TS.

https://i.imgur.com/7feAzu0.jpg

Its banding and outflow pattern look good for a newly formed TC. It just needs to produce some deep convection over the core.

[InfernoFlameCat]

You might as well be speaking madarin Im so sorry, What does that mean?

It means it's going to be TS Ida at the next advisory

So with the coords being 17.7N 79.4w That is where I question if an eye was forming earlier? Is it that its just too early in the life of this system for that?

And please dont take that as me questioning anyones judgement, Im sincerely trying to understand and learn

https://i.postimg.cc/QMNLtWXh/goes16-vis-09-L-202108261555.gif

No eye. You need an eyewall for that and on radar there is no eyewall as of now. What you saw was a dry slot in the convection. Typically an eye will be surrounded by deep convection that is rapidly rotating around the eye feature. Also a system will need to develop a Central Dense Overcast/ CDO beforehand. high latitude systems can in fact exhibit an eye at low strength (Ex Pablo before it became a hurricane it had an eye at 50 mph that it maintained through hurricane strength) but farther south generally a clear eye is only found in mature hurricanes.

[TallahasseeMan]

Looks like Recon is getting on the scene at a good time.

[Stormgodess]

It means it's going to be TS Ida at the next advisory

So with the coords being 17.7N 79.4w That is where I question if an eye was forming earlier? Is it that its just too early in the life of this system for that?

And please dont take that as me questioning anyones judgement, Im sincerely trying to understand and learn

https://i.postimg.cc/QMNLtWXh/goes16-vis-09-L-202108261555.gif

No eye. You need an eyewall for that and on radar there is no eyewall as of now. What you saw was a dry slot in the convection. Typically an eye will be surrounded by deep convection that is rapidly rotating around the eye feature. Also a system will need to develop a Central Dense Overcast/ CDO beforehand. high latitude systems can in fact exhibit an eye at low strength (Ex Pablo before it became a hurricane it had an eye at 50 mph that it maintained through hurricane strength) but farther south generally a clear eye is only found in mature hurricanes.

Thank you so much... That is exactly the sort of info I was looking for and I understood it too!

[skyline385]

Recon seems to be finding weak flight level winds but there is an unflagged 40 kts SFMR

[Ubuntwo]

Recon seems to be finding weak flight level winds but there is an unflagged 40 kts SFMR

Discard, that was while they were descending. Next dataset should be entirely at operational altitude.

[ColdMiser123]

Recon seems to be finding weak flight level winds but there is an unflagged 40 kts SFMR

Still about 2 degrees longitude to go before they reach the 18z BT center.

[grapealcoholic]

I'd guess they find 50kt FL in that convection near the core

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon seems to be finding weak flight level winds but there is an unflagged 40 kts SFMR

They have just started to descend from 24,000 ft. They are not quite there yet

[Sciencerocks]

[Jr0d]

So from the previous NHC advisory, the center has moved north-northEAST. Lol. I think we all know what's happening here-they are slowly correcting their initial position to the mid-level center that has taken over. It's still slightly further north than this best track update.

Just as I said a few posts ago, this shift to the right may affect model guidance at 18z and 0z.

At this rate, South FL could receive some impacts.

I was thinking last night that the lower Florida Keys would need to be under watches and warnings when this got classified just based on what I saw and what the models were doing.

Now with the center forming further north and east than originally expected I would give Key West over a 50% probability of seeing storm conditions.

[skyline385]

Recon seems to be finding weak flight level winds but there is an unflagged 40 kts SFMR

Still about 2 degrees longitude to go before they reach the 18z BT center.

Ahh that explains it, readings seemed a bit off to me as well. Wondering why they didn't just flag it...

[Jr0d]

I'd guess they find 50kt FL in that convection near the core

I expect them to find a fairly strong tropical storm too. So much for systems struggling to consolidate like they did earlier this year.

[LSUfisherman2001]

Thank you so much... That is exactly the sort of info I was looking for and I understood it too!

Stormgodess, I have been around this forum since 2004 despite my post count. This is not my normal account because I am having some login issues. Anyway, I just wanted to tell you to never be afraid of asking questions on this board. There are some really talented Pro Mets and some gifted amateurs on here as well. They have always been very quick to answer questions that are asked for informational purposes not just to be snarky. I find this to be the best board for information on the web, and I find it to be the most carefully moderated. This has kept this board on top of the online tropical weather sites.
Thanks,
Tim

[cycloneye]

[ThetaE]

This thing hasn't done anything all day.
Seeing small outflow boundaries from dry-air intrusion.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mDv3t4Kw/99L1.png [/url]

Those outflow boundaries look to be coming from convection pretty removed from the center of circulation. It's definitely a sign that air in that location is dry in the mid-levels, but the fact that we can see any outflow boundaries means that convection is attempting to mix that dry air out ahead of TD 9/Ida.

That doesn't mean said convection removed from the center will be 100% effective at sheltering the core of TD 9/Ida, but I feel like I've seen outflow boundaries west of the trough axis/center of circulation since yesterday, and those outflow boundaries have made a lot of progress putting distance between TD 9/Ida and the dry air to the west.

[catskillfire51]

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/VPTjWnM.png

Why are they way up there? That's east of Cayo Ciprey (I had to look that up )

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/VPTjWnM.png

Why are they way up there? That's east of Cayo Ciprey (I had to look that up )

Look now.