ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

[skyline385]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

Been the story of this season and last except Grace...

[cycloneye]

Plane found center but still has not found TS force winds.

[grapealcoholic]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

Been the story of this season and last except Grace...

For sure. The gulf is tricky; a lot of storms peak too soon and are already weakening by landfall

[wxman57]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.

Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.

[cheezyWXguy]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.

Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.

All hail King CMC

[grapealcoholic]

A weaker storm will it make it further west

[Jr0d]

Found the center, but I suspect the stronger winds and likely TS winds are in the NE quadrant that has not been sampled yet.

[xironman]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.

Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.

All hail King CMC

Everybody needs a crazy uncle... The play out of this storm is text book. Good environment, no significant land areas (yes west cuba I am dissing you) between it and the gulf coast. It will be a couple of busy days for the server.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

The weaker it is the further west it goes right? Or does that not matter this time?

[wxman57]

Found the center, but I suspect the stronger winds and likely TS winds are in the NE quadrant that has not been sampled yet.

Almost precisely where I put it in my advisory. Been typing advisories, recording videos, and conferencing with clients since 4:45am. One more call at 4pm and I'm done for the day. Lather, rinse, repeat through Sunday.

[grapealcoholic]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

The weaker it is the further west it goes right? Or does that not matter this time?

That's correct. The steering at the low levels is more easterly than the mid levels

[Hammy]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

Been the story of this season and last except Grace...

Storm is so far doing better and developing faster than the models predicted by this point, I'm not sure why people were expecting stronger.

[wxman57]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

The weaker it is the further west it goes right? Or does that not matter this time?

The farther west it is, the farther west it goes. Similar in the other direction. That's actually not a joke. Models need to initialize it in the right location to predict where it will go. It's forming farther east so models will shift farther east.

[jlauderdal]

Found the center, but I suspect the stronger winds and likely TS winds are in the NE quadrant that has not been sampled yet.

Almost precisely where I put it in my advisory. Been typing advisories, recording videos, and conferencing with clients since 4:45am. One more call at 4pm and I'm done for the day. Lather, rinse, repeat through Sunday.

Looks like labor day weekend you will be on duty too, no vacation in sight

[grapealcoholic]

Weaker than I expected. Looks like it might miss Cuba after all

Been the story of this season and last except Grace...

Storm is so far doing better and developing faster than the models predicted by this point, I'm not sure why people were expecting stronger.

GFS had the storm at 1004 at 2pm so it's underperforming just a tad

[ouragans]

No update to TS. I think there will be an update and special advisory when the Hunter reaches the NE quad

[wxman57]

Found the center, but I suspect the stronger winds and likely TS winds are in the NE quadrant that has not been sampled yet.

Almost precisely where I put it in my advisory. Been typing advisories, recording videos, and conferencing with clients since 4:45am. One more call at 4pm and I'm done for the day. Lather, rinse, repeat through Sunday.

Looks like labor day weekend you will be on duty too, no vacation in sight

That's to be expected this time of year. I'll have about 11 comp days to take by Monday. May be able to take Monday-Wed off next week before we start advisories on Caribbean system.

Let's get "Ida" inland first. I would be quite concerned if I lived in SE LA. TS winds to the MS Coast likely now.

[grapealcoholic]

Here we go. Big tower going off upshear now

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Ida has formed.

AL, 09, 2021082618, , BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,