ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[ThetaE]

Recon turning around to investigate that MLC. Will likely find evidence of a new center forming

Worth noting recon is flying pretty low (925 mb) so it may not pick up the mid level center on FL winds.

On that subject-- anyone know what the conversion for FL winds from 925mb is? My guess is a lot of SFMR are getting flagged because of the low altitude, but the FL strength is probably a lot closer to what's really reaching the surface than what we're used to.

[Stormgodess]

Soooo.....

Whats y'alls opinion for the chance that Ida is stronger than a Cat2 at landfall???


Im a novice, but I just dont see this thing making it that far across the gulf with as hot as it is and only being a Cat2?

Is there something out there that they think will hinder further intensification?

[MississippiWx]

The last recon update gives hints that it’s about to find a different/stronger center further north underneath the MLC. Next update will confirm.

[Steve]

Soooo.....

Whats y'alls opinion for the chance that Ida is stronger than a Cat2 at landfall???


Im a novice, but I just dont see this thing making it that far across the gulf with as hot as it is and only being a Cat2?

Is there something out there that they think will hinder further intensification?

I'd go about < 2% Cat 5, 15% Cat 4, 70% Cat 3.

[Stormgodess]

In Houma, rode out Zeta last year but was in a hotel. It was rough. Not sure if I should leave or not. In a 3 story concrete apartment complex on the 2nd floor. Getting nervous. Any advice?

If you are leaving, do it now. If they issue even voluntary evac for New Orleans then it will be a nightmare.

Likely already hard to find an available hotel room anywhere in the state.

And know that you arent the only one. I do this every damn storm. I never know what to do.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS continues to move up the timeline for Ida's landfall... now potentially as early as ~15z Sunday. This will limit how strong it will ultimately get, especially as its not well organized right now.

[tolakram]

[aspen]

The last recon update gives hints that it’s about to find a different/stronger center further north underneath the MLC. Next update will confirm.

It’s about 0.3N of the original center. If the LLC keeps getting tugged north, we’ll probably see a vastly different system.

[toad strangler]

Soooo.....

Whats y'alls opinion for the chance that Ida is stronger than a Cat2 at landfall???


Im a novice, but I just dont see this thing making it that far across the gulf with as hot as it is and only being a Cat2?

Is there something out there that they think will hinder further intensification?

The NHC tends to be a wee bit conservative when bringing forth the dreaded "M" in a track. BUT, this is essentially peak season in an area that has historically birthed some monsters AND conditions look pretty good going forward. I'd be shocked if this doesn't reach at least Cat 3 intensity. Now, with LANDFALL ... the northern gulf coast can do weird things to a COC so some slight weakening just prior is always a possibility.

BE PREPARED!

[ThetaE]

Definitely looks like a center reformation at the N end of an elongated low oriented SSW-NNE. Found extrapolated pressure down into the 1004s, vs. the 1007 mb of last pass. Most surprising to me is that Ida's rocking an impressive warm core despite everything else about it being structurally unsound (for now).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS continues to move up the timeline for Ida's landfall... now potentially as early as ~15z Sunday. This will limit how strong it will ultimately get, especially as its not well organized right now.

One caveat to this to consider - it's also possible Ida manages to get tugged far enough east that it misses landfall in LA entirely and hits MS. This would extend its time over water. The continued eastward trends today suggest this to be a possibility IMHO.

[MississippiWx]

The last recon update gives hints that it’s about to find a different/stronger center further north underneath the MLC. Next update will confirm.

It’s about 0.3N of the original center. If the LLC keeps getting tugged north, we’ll probably see a vastly different system.

Yep. It seems to be working out that kink now. The lowest pressure was around 1004mb north of the original center fix. It’s consolidating underneath the MLC. Probably one strong convective burst is all it needs.

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS continues to move up the timeline for Ida's landfall... now potentially as early as ~15z Sunday. This will limit how strong it will ultimately get, especially as its not well organized right now.

I noticed this too! I was just going to post about this....Hopefully that's good news and maybe if we get lucky, the early Sunday landfall will just result in a Cat 1 Storm as opposed to a Cat 2/3 storm........ We can cross our fingers and hope! ....................

[Hurrilurker]

So looks like the cone of uncertainty has moved slightly faster and further East.

This is the only adjustment so far

It's a pretty significant one though. Moves it very close to New Orleans and even if it doesn't make it all the way there, it's targeted to be on the storm's strong side.

[toad strangler]

This is a climo track (for the time of year) coming here if I ever saw one. Another great analog for the track and DATE is Camille. Let's hope Ida doesn't read about her on the way in.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS continues to move up the timeline for Ida's landfall... now potentially as early as ~15z Sunday. This will limit how strong it will ultimately get, especially as its not well organized right now.

I noticed this too! I was just going to post about this....Hopefully that's good news and maybe if we get lucky, the early Sunday landfall will just result in a Cat 1 Storm as opposed to a Cat 2/3 storm........ We can cross our fingers and hope! ....................

More likely an early-Sunday landfall would keep Ida as a low-end Cat 3 vs a borderline Cat 4/5 like Laura. The loop current in Ida's path is very reminiscent of the one in 2005.

[Jag95]

GFS continues to move up the timeline for Ida's landfall... now potentially as early as ~15z Sunday. This will limit how strong it will ultimately get, especially as its not well organized right now.

One caveat to this to consider - it's also possible Ida manages to get tugged far enough east that it misses landfall in LA entirely and hits MS. This would extend its time over water. The continued eastward trends today suggest this to be a possibility IMHO.

That's my concern. I never breath easy on these ridge runner types until they are west of me...especially when there is no well defined center yet.

[Craters]

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130

It's still incomprehensible to me that Ike isn't on that list. Goes to show that the definition of a major hurricane could use some adjustment.

[SoupBone]

How long would it need for RI? It's 30kts or more in a 24 hour period right? It still has almost 3 days to get itself together. That's potentially 90kts added to its current 35kts. It's not out of the realm of possibilities.

[SconnieCane]

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130

It's still incomprehensible to me that Ike isn't on that list. Goes to show that the definition of a major hurricane could use some adjustment.

Ike was also a September landfall. These are August only, but I take your point. Given another few hours over water (it was gradually strengthening at time of landfall), it probably would have (re)gained the additional 5kt, with negligible effects on the impacts but a significant effect on the meteorological record books.