ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130

It's still incomprehensible to me that Ike isn't on that list. Goes to show that the definition of a major hurricane could use some adjustment.

Ike was in September but it was only 1 MPH off of being a cat 3.

[LSU2001]

srva80 wrote:
In Houma, rode out Zeta last year but was in a hotel. It was rough. Not sure if I should leave or not. In a 3 story concrete apartment complex on the 2nd floor. Getting nervous. Any advice?

I live in Cut Off, La. about 30 miles southeast of Houma. I figure that if the models and forecast verify we will see some pretty gnarly weather from ole Ida. Zeta was rough down here but the good thing was that zeta was really moving when it came inland. I think it was moving near 20 mph when it made landfall as a very low-level Cat 3. Zeta was classified as a Cat 2 on landfall and later upgraded in post-season re-analysis.

Like I said if the forecasts/models verify this storm will be of a much longer duration than Zeta and since we have been having so much rain this spring and summer there will be a lot more trees uprooted. I will stay here in my house for up to a strengthening Cat 3 or Cat 4. As of now, I am planning to stay for Ida but that could change as the forecasts change. I don't want to see a scenario where we have a storm strengthen all the way to landfall like several storms did last year including Zeta. If I lived in an apartment building and had the money to evacuate I would do so because it will be a week or so getting the power back on and the aftermath will suck big time with such hot weather. Zeta wasn't too bad because it was in October and within a day or so of the cane, we got a cold front and some really nice weather. This time it will be hot as hell after the storm and with no power in an apartment, it will be miserable.
Just my 2 cents worth,
Tim

[toad strangler]

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130

It's still incomprehensible to me that Ike isn't on that list. Goes to show that the definition of a major hurricane could use some adjustment.

Camille was within mere miles of a LA landfall

[AdamFirst]

In Houma, rode out Zeta last year but was in a hotel. It was rough. Not sure if I should leave or not. In a 3 story concrete apartment complex on the 2nd floor. Getting nervous. Any advice?

Just my opinion - if you have a place to go further inland, I would. You must make your decision soon, though.

[MississippiWx]

Ida will have plenty of time to become a major hurricane in the Gulf. Katrina went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in a day. Katrina is obviously an extreme, but the loop current and a similar upper level environment is what helped Katrina explode.

Oh, and for those of you keeping track at home, Ida is more than likely going to strike on the same day as Katrina. Scary coincidence.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ida will have plenty of time to become a major hurricane in the Gulf. Katrina went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in a day. Katrina is obviously an extreme, but the loop current and a similar upper level environment is what helped Katrina explode.

Oh, and for those of you keeping track at home, Ida is more than likely going to strike on the same day as Katrina. Scary coincidence.

And my birthday

[capNstorms]

goodnight

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431021961514151941

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Despite the weak LLC, Ida’s outflow and banding structure has greatly improved throughout the day. In the morning, outflow was limited/squished on the W side, but it has been expanding throughout the day. Seems like the trough over there is weakening.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

In Houma, rode out Zeta last year but was in a hotel. It was rough. Not sure if I should leave or not. In a 3 story concrete apartment complex on the 2nd floor. Getting nervous. Any advice?

I live down the bayou from you. You should be good. They will issue mandatory or voluntary evacuation. When they issue mandatory we leave. Also depends on the area you live in. Houma floods more in a regular rain storm than down da bayou. So if you feel uncomfortable staying, pack up and go... I always rather be safe than sorry.

[Stormgodess]

How long would it need for RI? It's 30kts or more in a 24 hour period right? It still has almost 3 days to get itself together. That's potentially 90kts added to its current 35kts. It's not out of the realm of possibilities.

Katrina went from a Cat 3 to a Cat 5 in just 13 hrs

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Code: Select all

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:06:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.88N 79.96W
B. Center Fix Location: 134 statute miles (216 km) to the SE (137°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 742m (2,434ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available[b]
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 43kts (49.5mph)[/b]
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix at 21:47:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 43kts (From the ESE at 49.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix at 21:46:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18kts (20.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 22:10:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 355° at 12kts (From the N at 13.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 22:15:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 24 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) from the flight level center at 21:46:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) from the flight level center

Peak valid SFMR of 43 knots. Flight level winds not quite there yet.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am concerned about Ida's massive cloud envelope. We could have a large system coming through. A CAT 3 Katrina size storm is worse than a CAT 5 Andrew Imho.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1430984022419771394

[tailgater]

I am concerned about Ida's massive cloud envelope. We could have a large system coming through. A CAT 3 Katrina size storm is worse than a CAT 5 Andrew Imho.

This a concern of mine as well, tidal lakes surge could be a big problem with a large storm funneling in feet of surge water limiting drainage of local rivers in Lower Livingston and the North shore.

[Zonacane]

Despite the weak LLC, Ida’s outflow and banding structure has greatly improved throughout the day. In the morning, outflow was limited/squished on the W side, but it has been expanding throughout the day. Seems like the trough over there is weakening.

Low-level structure snapping into place well ahead of the model runs.

[FLpanhandle91]

I think we may be looking at a borderline hurricane 12 hours from now. There is some vigorous banding beginning to occur around the LLC with fairly deep convection.

[Craters]

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130

It's still incomprehensible to me that Ike isn't on that list. Goes to show that the definition of a major hurricane could use some adjustment.

Ike was also a September landfall. These are August only, but I take your point. Given another few hours over water (it was gradually strengthening at time of landfall), it probably would have (re)gained the additional 5kt, with negligible effects on the impacts but a significant effect on the meteorological record books.

Um, oops. You're right, of course -- that's a very good reason for Ike not to be on this list. My bad.

(If you make another list next month, I'll say it again then.)

[Nimbus]

This is a climo track (for the time of year) coming here if I ever saw one. Another great analog for the track and DATE is Camille. Let's hope Ida doesn't read about her on the way in.

Forecasting has improved since then but this is a good example.
Fast moving Camille missed New Orleans just to the east, and even though she was a cat 5 at landfall most of the flooding was in storm surge risk areas there.

Edit to add forecast evolution for Camille

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cami ... ecasts.png