ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1431047707934830599

[tolakram]

Shortwave loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Stormgodess]

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1431047707934830599?s=20

See this is what scares me to death about these early conservative forcasts on strength. To most Louisiana Diehards a Cat 2 is nothing if they call for evacs last minute in New Orleans its going ot be horrible.

Not sure how yall feel about Windy.com but check out this GFS forcast with Wind gusts turned on.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust? ... ,-90.008,9

Move it to 1pm Sunday then hit play. Look at all that water being pushed into the lakes. Look at the gust first in Grand Isle, then in new orleans... Pause it and zoom in.

That is a scary dang scenerio if it plays out. And that is with it being forcast as a Cat 2

[psyclone]

Ida's rapidly expanding outflow speaks to a system in an increasingly favorable environment. It does take time for a system to stack and organize but it appears to be doing the work it needs to do. LA and MS folks are in a very familiar routine and for good reason.

[Cypresso]

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1431047707934830599?s=20

See this is what scares me to death about these early conservative forcasts on strength. To most Louisiana Diehards a Cat 2 is nothing if they call for evacs last minute in New Orleans its going ot be horrible.

Not sure how yall feel about Windy.com but check out this GFS forcast with Wind gusts turned on.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust? ... ,-90.008,9

Move it to 1pm Sunday then hit play. Look at all that water being pushed into the lakes. Look at the gust first in Grand Isle, then in new orleans... Pause it and zoom in.

That is a scary dang scenerio if it plays out. And that is with it being forcast as a Cat 2

Thanks for that link for Windy.com. I had never visited that page before. I like it.

[jdjaguar]

near Major per NHC as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.

plan accordingly.

[aspen]

Some calculations and speculation on Ida’s possible future intensity:

Models are showing a range of time that Ida will be over the Gulf, from as little as 36 hours to as much as 48-51 hours. Let’s say that Ida crosses over Cuba as a mid-grade TS with a central pressure of 995 mbar. It will be going over the Loop Current and have a rather good environment (Nora’s influence remains to be seen). To get some estimates as to how strong Ida could get, I used the deepening rates from two Gulf majors, Rita and Grace. Rita went from 990mb to 897mb in 42 hours while over the Loop Current (2.2mb/hr deepening rate), while Grace’s RI before landfall was around 1.4-1.7 mb/hr. Ida will likely need some time to build up an inner core, so its actual time to intensify could be shorter, between 24-36 hours. Grace’s deepening rate yields 961-934mb, while Rita’s yields 942-916mb.

TL;DR the range of possible peaks goes from a borderline Cat 2/3 at minimum to a borderline Cat 4/5 at maximum. I’m skeptical of anything under 930mb, because Ida will be entering the Gulf after land interaction unlike Rita, and unlike Katrina or Laura, it probably won’t have as much time. I will be VERY surprised if it surpasses Laura’s intensity. Therefore, I’m going to guess that Ida will be between 955 and 940 mbar.

[gatorcane]

NHC intensity forecast looks spot on, wouldn’t surprise me if it is a major at landfall. Could be similar to what happened with Grace as it traversed the BoC and quickly organized into a major before landfall. Time to prepare for those along the northern Gulf coast.

[Stormgodess]

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1431047707934830599?s=20

See this is what scares me to death about these early conservative forcasts on strength. To most Louisiana Diehards a Cat 2 is nothing if they call for evacs last minute in New Orleans its going ot be horrible.

Not sure how yall feel about Windy.com but check out this GFS forcast with Wind gusts turned on.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust? ... ,-90.008,9

Move it to 1pm Sunday then hit play. Look at all that water being pushed into the lakes. Look at the gust first in Grand Isle, then in new orleans... Pause it and zoom in.

That is a scary dang scenerio if it plays out. And that is with it being forcast as a Cat 2

Thanks for that link for Windy.com. I had never visited that page before. I like it.

You're welcome. I dont know how accurate or reliable it is, but for me visually its so much more impactful and easy to understand, and the interface is simple and easy to use.

[Craters]

WV tells that story very clearly. Very very large envelope around Ida. As soon as she sets her core upright....
https://i.imgur.com/cza3Msk.gif

Large I'll say. I will see high level outflow on the E coast of FL from Ida. Crazy.

All of the Bahamas are shrouded in cirrus!

At least they're getting a side view for a change.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2021082700, , BEST, 0, 180N, 801W, 35, 1006, TS

[grapealcoholic]

Attempting to wrap upshear

[ElectricStorm]

After seeing Harvey, Micheal, and Laura reach Cat 4+ while not spending all that much time over the gulf, I'm thinking we may see something similar here. I don't really see Ida getting to Cat 5, although I can't really throw out any possibilities at this point. I can definitely see a solid Cat 4 out of this though. Just a nasty and horrible situation overall. Hopefully Cuba somehow disrupts the core more than expected but I just don't see that happening.

[aspen]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

[grapealcoholic]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

Where is Ida specifically?

[GCANE]

Seeing alot of moisture flowing into the Dry Slot from the Yucatan.
Tomorrow maybe a better day for intensification.
We really need to see some long-duration high-helicity hot towers fire in the MLC to push the vort down to the surface.

[wx98]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

Where is Ida specifically?

West of Jamaica.

[rw1984]

That location looks to be just south of the GFS point from the 18z model.

[skyline385]

It looks to be developing the shrimp like structure already but convection is lacking around the centre, probably Dmax will get it going...

[toad strangler]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

All of the convection is on the E side. Don't let your eyes play tricks on you. Focus on where the NHC has the center and you can see overall motion.