ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

The tower just north of the Recon fix is getting pretty close.

[GCANE]

Update: GFS Forecast, IDA in Mid GoM.
The main steering being the ULH over the Carolinas is pushing east and weakening somewhat.
Opening the possibility of a curve east.
Ida still under a ARWB over the Loop Current.
RW hasn't changed much but my hunch is it will dip further south in upcoming model runs.
This is based on the fact the Midwest is cooling faster that what the models have been predicting.

A concerning fact I heard on the news tonight that FL hospitals are setting up tents for overflow Covid patients.
They didn't say exactly where though.

Also, I want to mention the Loop Current is not the end-all be-all to rapidly intensify a TC.
Sure, we all remember Katrina.
But I have seen many TCs over the Loop Current and do nothing.
There are a lot of other factors that come into play that intensify or keep a lid on a TC.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gJGzW1zD/99L1.png [/url]

I work at a hospital in Pensacola, FL and yes, we are overwhelmed right now setting up separate areas to treat these patients.

My prayers are with you. You have my deepest respect. Stay safe.

[dpep4]

Gonna briefly interrupt to ask the most important question of the moment:

How do we get rid of that stupid giant 5-day cyclone map at the top? I really don't need to see it every stinkin' page.

Thanks in advance.

[GCANE]

Coming up on Dvorak now.
That is really close.

[GCANE]

Nice symmetrical tower.
Growing quickly on rapid scan.
Not seeing any helicity tough.

[grapealcoholic]

Nice symmetrical tower.
Growing quickly on rapid scan.
Not seeing any helicity tough.

Give it time. It seems to be building in height first

[grapealcoholic]

Wow

[jaguars_22]

Does the Nam at least pick up on ridging or is it not accurate at all? What is it good for?

[GCANE]

Another tower going up just east of it.
We might get a relocate here.

[catskillfire51]

Another tower going up just east of it.
We might get a relocate here.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GhYb4vMV/99L1.png [/url]

That's close to the last nhc update

[grapealcoholic]

Does the Nam at least pick up on ridging or is it not accurate at all? What is it good for?

Everything except TCs

[ElectricStorm]

Does the Nam at least pick up on ridging or is it not accurate at all? What is it good for?

The NAM is a CAM so it's meant to be a severe weather model, not a TC model

[GCANE]

Definitely got something.
Clouds just south of the towers are moving west to east.

[CrazyC83]

I'm in NE Mississippi and not looking forward to this at all.

[jaguars_22]

I can remember during Harvey it was the only model showing a major early on. It was correct! Now I’m seeing the Nam continue to move more westward. Does that mean the ridge is stronger since it’s good at other factors?

[GCANE]

Another tower going up just east of it.
We might get a relocate here.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GhYb4vMV/99L1.png [/url]

https://i.imgur.com/lWe4OFs.jpg

That's close to the last nhc update

Oh no, Pinar del Rio is the best tobacco fields in the world.
I hate that.

[grapealcoholic]

Next tower to fire will be the one that wraps

[MONTEGUT_LA]

After seeing Harvey, Micheal, and Laura reach Cat 4+ while not spending all that much time over the gulf, I'm thinking we may see something similar here. I don't really see Ida getting to Cat 5, although I can't really throw out any possibilities at this point. I can definitely see a solid Cat 4 out of this though. Just a nasty and horrible situation overall. Hopefully Cuba somehow disrupts the core more than expected but I just don't see that happening.

What worries me is where her rapid intensification might happen along with the speed she is expeced to move.

Im speaking it total novice terms, but you know how some strong storms once they get to that Cat 4 Cat 5 level after a while will just peter out seemingly for no reason? And so they arent so strong at landfall?

I worry she will only have enough time to become a Monster and hit full force with it

One thing south Louisiana learned is if it packing cat 4/5 winds and dies down before landfall, that storm still got the cat 4/5 storm surge ahead of it... Rita, ike good example ... They both hit miles away from terrebonne parish but we still flooded pretty significantly.

[underthwx]

Update: GFS Forecast, IDA in Mid GoM.
The main steering being the ULH over the Carolinas is pushing east and weakening somewhat.
Opening the possibility of a curve east.
Ida still under a ARWB over the Loop Current.
RW hasn't changed much but my hunch is it will dip further south in upcoming model runs.
This is based on the fact the Midwest is cooling faster that what the models have been predicting.

A concerning fact I heard on the news tonight that FL hospitals are setting up tents for overflow Covid patients.
They didn't say exactly where though.

Also, I want to mention the Loop Current is not the end-all be-all to rapidly intensify a TC.
Sure, we all remember Katrina.
But I have seen many TCs over the Loop Current and do nothing.
There are a lot of other factors that come into play that intensify or keep a lid on a TC.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gJGzW1zD/99L1.png [/url]

I work at a hospital in Pensacola, FL and yes, we are overwhelmed right now setting up separate areas to treat these patients.

My prayers are with you. You have my deepest respect. Stay safe.

I echo your sentiments...stay blessed and safe...

[ObsessedMiami]

Gonna briefly interrupt to ask the most important question of the moment:

How do we get rid of that stupid giant 5-day cyclone map at the top? I really don't need to see it every stinkin' page.

Thanks in advance.

How do you think I feel trying to click the storms for five minutes