ATL: IDA - Models

[PTPatrick]

Hwrf still going to be well west of gfs, looking like vermillion bay again despite a few hours slower.

[Steve]

951 peak? Still got some time over water though...
Also, that's a big ass eye depicted on the HWRF. WTH?

Beast.

[skyline385]

HWRF has that classic look of a system getting sheared in the Eastern quad like Laura, we might see intensification to drop off near landfall..

[Steve]

Looks to slap those brakes on at 951. However, it landfalls at 1am Monday morning at its probable peak. Crazy.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

951 peak? Still got some time over water though...
Also, that's a big ass eye depicted on the HWRF. WTH?

Beast.

I have to be up at 5 for work but woke up to check all the model runs. What you say Steve, hope everything has been well? Louisiana almost always gets spared with these systems weakening on approach due to shear and especially dry air, but I just don’t see it this time around. This could definitely be Laura part 2. Except this time it’s our turn. Some of these tracks have the eye coming right over us. I remember how bad Gustav was even though it significantly weakened, this will be on a whole other level of which people have never seen around here before if the models are correct. Busting out the Chainsaws and generators tomorrow. Gas stations and grocery stores are going to be absolutely nuts around here.

[skyline385]

Comparing the 0Z HWRF run IR plot at 06Z, Ida looks to be well ahead of schedule, that structure is far better than what the HWRF assumes during initialization

[skyline385]

0Z EURO

[kevin]

HMON has cat 5 winds, probably due to tighthening by land interaction. The first time a model has shown such winds for Ida as far as I'm aware. The pressure does seem a bit high for such winds.
Edit: wrong graphic, surface winds are ~118 kt.

[CrazyC83]

HMON has cat 5 winds, probably due to tighthening by land interaction. The first time a model has shown such winds for Ida as far as I'm aware. The pressure does seem a bit high for such winds.

https://i.imgur.com/iHICXHX.png

That's at 850 mb, so the winds would be higher. Using Recon adjustment factors, that would equate to 115-120 kt at the surface.

[kevin]

HMON has cat 5 winds, probably due to tighthening by land interaction. The first time a model has shown such winds for Ida as far as I'm aware. The pressure does seem a bit high for such winds.

https://i.imgur.com/iHICXHX.png

That's at 850 mb, so the winds would be higher. Using Recon adjustment factors, that would equate to 115-120 kt at the surface.

Yes you're right, I clicked on the wrong graphic. Peak surface winds are indeed 117.8 kt in this run.

[Shell Mound]

Both the HWRF and ECMWF are weaker (10-15 mb or so) at the peak and LF vs. earlier cycles. Notably, the EC operational shows a much stronger Nora nearing MH status in the EPAC as Ida approaches LA. That could explain the sheared IR presentation on the HWRF. Regardless, the large wind field is disconcerting in regard to potential fetch and surge. Still, any bit of weakening would be welcome news at this stage. Unfortunately, both Nora and Ida will be impacting land.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/BradyBGWX/status/1431148786911518724

[kevin]

The 06z cycle has started, as always ICON first. ICON's latest run is its strongest yet with a 951 mbar landfall. Also about 3 hours slower than the 00z ICON run, which gives Ida even more time over water.

[Keldeo1997]

ICON is slower and much stronger

[kevin]

06z GFS is further west than 00z and also about 6 hours slower.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS a tick west and slower

[Kohlecane]

Comparing the 0Z HWRF run IR plot at 06Z, Ida looks to be well ahead of schedule, that structure is far better than what the HWRF assumes during initialization

https://i.imgur.com/Fl4BB6X.png

https://i.imgur.com/hEnuKHE.png

That's quite impressive how close it is though even if it's slightly off HWRF/HMON are better indicators within 72 hours. will be interesting what the models show come 18z/00z guidance once it clears Cuba.

[BobHarlem]

0z UKMET

[aspen]

The 6z HWRF has a rather good initialization in terms of IR structure and position. It shows a 990mb landfall in Cuba and a hurricane within 12-18 hours after entering the Gulf.

[Kohlecane]

06z HMON having issues, or is it just TT having a delay, usually runs about 24 hours faster then the HWRF