ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

What’s up with the NOAA plane? It hasn’t transmitted in two hours.

Maybe trying to sneak over Cuba.

[Stormgodess]

Most of us expected Ida to be projected as a major hurricane and even though 5 or 10 knots of additional strength in the eyewall often doesn't make much difference, the forecast slowdown and larger storm depicted in the 06z runs is concerning. The light shear persisting is good news for Cuba although it was depicted in most of the model runs yesterday so no surprise there either. They don't usually fly the G-IV upper air analysis flights till late in the forecast when the greater data density is subject to less random evolution. They narrowed the landfall cone a little bit but clearly if you are below 5 ft elevation in LA the shutters are up, you are packed and ready to bug out.

Yep, I'm at 20 feet so I'm waiting a little longer, not expecting to leave until Saturday if at all.

Another aspect of this we need to take into account is the possibility for significant river and stream flooding well inland away from the surge.. Also tornadoes, weeks without electricity

[Blinhart]

Most of us expected Ida to be projected as a major hurricane and even though 5 or 10 knots of additional strength in the eyewall often doesn't make much difference, the forecast slowdown and larger storm depicted in the 06z runs is concerning. The light shear persisting is good news for Cuba although it was depicted in most of the model runs yesterday so no surprise there either. They don't usually fly the G-IV upper air analysis flights till late in the forecast when the greater data density is subject to less random evolution. They narrowed the landfall cone a little bit but clearly if you are below 5 ft elevation in LA the shutters are up, you are packed and ready to bug out.

Yep, I'm at 20 feet so I'm waiting a little longer, not expecting to leave until Saturday if at all.

Another aspect of this we need to take into account is the possibility for significant river and stream flooding well inland away from the surge.. Also tornadoes, weeks without electricity

I totally agree, a lot of people that haven't driven across Louisiana and explored Louisiana doesn't understand we don't have hills along the coast like almost every other state in this country. It is almost completely flat with a steady rise in height above sea level. We have a lot of dirt levees and the Intracoastal Waterway that separates a lot of the wetlands.

[Kohlecane]

What’s up with the NOAA plane? It hasn’t transmitted in two hours.

Even though it says NOAA49 I wonder if this is it. It's gathering upper air dynamics that's for sure judging by the jigsaw look and over the straits and Cuba

[Stormgodess]

Yep, I'm at 20 feet so I'm waiting a little longer, not expecting to leave until Saturday if at all.

Another aspect of this we need to take into account is the possibility for significant river and stream flooding well inland away from the surge.. Also tornadoes, weeks without electricity

I totally agree, a lot of people that haven't driven across Louisiana and explored Louisiana doesn't understand we don't have hills along the coast like almost every other state in this country. It is almost completely flat with a steady rise in height above sea level. We have a lot of dirt levees and the Intracoastal Waterway that separates a lot of the wetlands.

That was one of the worst things about the 2016 floods. Nothing but water in every direction for miles and miles and miles! We get trapped early so we got out early. And it was heart breaking, Cajun Navy wasnt quite organized yet. It was just a bunch of us on facebook gathering info from people on their roofs or attics needing rescue, and giving that info out to men with boats. Several times we ended up faceing the only dry spot to put people would start to take on water.

[ThetaE]

Ida definitely looks sheared to me, with the strongest convection N and NE of the center of circulation. That stands out on radar and satellite. But sheared storms can still get pretty strong and this is clearly more organized than the last mission, so I'd wager that 50kts is probably a good guess for the strength recon will find. The big stories today will be a) how long it takes to symmetrize, and b) land interaction with Cuba.

The upper level low W of Ida has weakened/been pushed back by Ida's huge poleward outflow channel somewhat, but it still looks fairly stout on CIMSS analysis. But it should be all downhill from here regarding the strength of this feature.

[jlauderdal]

What’s up with the NOAA plane? It hasn’t transmitted in two hours.

Even though it says NOAA49 I wonder if this is it. It's gathering upper air dynamics that's for sure judging by the jigsaw look and over the straits and Cuba
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot_20210827-064239_Flightradar24.jpg

It's all about the ridge on that pattern, a little weaker ridge and NO is in big trouble.

[tropicwatch]

Circulation does appear to be on the southwest side of the convection and possibly north of its forecast point.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9626&y=6542&z=4&angle=0&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_07&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Extratropical94]

What’s up with the NOAA plane? It hasn’t transmitted in two hours.

Even though it says NOAA49 I wonder if this is it. It's gathering upper air dynamics that's for sure judging by the jigsaw look and over the straits and Cuba
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot_20210827-064239_Flightradar24.jpg

There's two NOAA planes in the air right now, NOAA49 (upper-level) and NOAA3 (low-level). NOAA3 hasn't transmitted anything since 8Z

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431216297841418241

[Blinhart]

I think there is plenty of evidence of being at least 50 MPH TS, wouldn't be shocked by the time for the next advisory they find enough evidence for at least 55 if not 60.

[ThetaE]

Still getting measurements from the Airforce plane.

Extrapolated pressure down to 1000.0 mb with 29kt winds, so still a bit NW of the center.

[Javlin]

Since the 11AM advisory on 8/26 Ida has gone 3.1N and 2.2W which the cloud pattern is forecasting just obs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[FLpanhandle91]

Unflagged 44kt SFMR on the west side. Pressure appears to by in the 990s. Definitely strengthened quite a bit since last night.

[kevin]

The first recon pass found a minimum pressure of 996.4 mbar.

[Kazmit]

I don't see how this could really start to get going yet with how lopsided the convection is.

[Owasso]

996mb

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't see how this could really start to get going yet with how lopsided the convection is.

I am pretty sure this is temporary though, I find it very hard to believe that this alone would prevent it from going haywire in the Gulf

Plus it looks like recon found this storm to have strengthened with a lowering in pressure

[FLpanhandle91]

Nice burst of convection very near the LLC right now. Recon is there at a great time.

[kevin]

Recon just measured 47 kt SFMR as well as 46 kt Est. Sfc. Wind. Seems like this pass supports 996mb/45kt. Perhaps they can find evidence for 50 kt in the NE quadrant.