ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

Starting to get thT V shape

[kevin]

As Cataegis96 said in the models thread, Ida's improved structure and presentation will favor more intensification in the short-term. I think we're now at 50/50 chances for Ida being a hurricane when she reaches Cuba.

[FLpanhandle91]

I expect recon to find hurricane force FL winds in the NW quad.

[kevin]

I expect recon to find hurricane force FL winds in the NW quad.

This might be a rough morning for many Louisiana folks (and of course people from Cuba) who probably expected this to still be a weak to moderate TS at this stage instead of a high-end rapidly improving TS. If anyone in the region still hasn't done it, please get prepped. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[jaguars_22]

It’s amazing we are 2 days out and this thing could go further west or east. Some gfs ensembles show a left hook after landfall… I have a feeling ida could have a mind of her own. Overall this is just BaD!

[jlauderdal]

It’s amazing we are 2 days out and this thing could go further west or east. Some gfs ensembles show a left hook after landfall… I have a feeling ida could have a mind of her own. Overall this is just BaD!

The error rates are well documented but it's best to follow the NHC track, they don't miss by much especially within 72 hours. If you are in the cone, prepare for a major hurricane, don't try and outguess yourself on the track, just follow NHC, a major hurricane is called that for a reason so be smart.

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1431255940582428681

[MississippiWx]

One different (and concerning) thing about Ida than hurricanes from last season is that some models seem to slow it down after landfall. Flooding could be a very major problem in Louisiana and Mississippi.

[tropicwatch]

Radar imagery indicates a possible eyewall forming.

[BigB0882]

One different (and concerning) thing about Ida than hurricanes from last season is that some models seem to slow it down after landfall. Flooding could be a very major problem in Louisiana and Mississippi.

I noticed the slow down and that it really doesn't move much between initial landfall at 2pm on Sunday and 2 am on Monday. It may only be 12 hours but with high rainfall rates, there will definitely be flooding in certain areas unlucky enough to get under a band.

[aspen]

Wow, that's an impressive CDO already.



I marked where Ida is likely to go over Cuba. While the center will likely get disrupted, it won't be by much. That first island is really flat, and while the western tip of Cuba has some 500-600m mountains, Ida will be across them in like an hour or two, maybe 3 hours at most. Seems like Cuba will only pause intensification.


At the rate Ida is coming together, a 65-70kt hurricane at landfall and entering the Gulf is very possible.

[FLpanhandle91]

Wow. Ida has established a sprawling CDO in just over three hours.

[GCANE]

Feeder Band is pumping in 3000 to 3500 CAPE air into the core.

[psyclone]

Ida's rapid development likely means a hurricane landfall in Cuba and stronger than min cat 3 landfall on the northern gulf coast. I'd expect the NHC to bump the landfall intensity to 105kt or so at LA landfall and continue to adjust as needed if development remains ahead of schedule. It looks like a dangerous situation.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/coweatherman/status/1431246028842291200?s=21

Lightning in tropical systems is a rare event (given the nature that winds are typically horizontal), but it does give some clues about the current processes occurring within Ida's core. In the early development stage (as Ida is in), we have rapid convection building with heights due to the increasing rising motion in the air columns (i.e., updrafts). As these towering cumulus clouds continue to build into the atmosphere, the rising air is also propagating water droplets (and eventually ice crystals) into higher levels of the atmosphere as well (meteorological term—these would be referred to as hydrometeors). At the same time, as the convection matures and cumulus congestus clouds are formed (these often precipitate hot towers), air reaches the top of the tropopause and begins to disperse, which then conversely forms downdrafts (in conjunction with cooler air aloft). When we get rapid movement of these hydrometeors in subsequent updrafts and downdrafts (which are increasing in vertical movement due to the escalating rising motion), they start to bump and rub together, which causes the frictional charge. Winds and gravity then separate the charged hydrometeors, and an electrical field is established in the tropical system (typically this occurs in the eyewall or quickly developing updrafts). This is the source of the lightning, but also is a good clue that Ida is undergoing intense updrafts.

[FLpanhandle91]

https://twitter.com/coweatherman/status/1431246028842291200?s=21

Lightning in tropical systems is a rare event (given the nature that winds are typically horizontal), but it does give some clues about the current processes occurring within Ida's core. In the early development stage (as Ida is in), we have rapid convection building with heights due to the increasing rising motion in the air columns (i.e., updrafts). As these towering cumulus clouds continue to build into the atmosphere, the rising air is also propagating water droplets (and eventually ice crystals) into higher levels of the atmosphere as well (meteorological term—these would be referred to as hydrometeors). At the same time, as the convection matures and cumulus congestus clouds are formed (these often precipitate hot towers), air reaches the top of the tropopause and begins to disperse, which then conversely forms downdrafts (in conjunction with cooler air aloft). When we get rapid movement of these hydrometeors in subsequent updrafts and downdrafts (which are increasing in vertical movement due to the escalating rising motion), they start to bump and rub together, which causes the frictional charge. Winds and gravity then separate the charged hydrometeors, and an electrical field is established in the tropical system (typically this occurs in the eyewall or quickly developing updrafts). This is the source of the lightning, but also is a good clue that Ida is undergoing intense updrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/JXhIoWl.jpg

Always appreciative of some good ol fashioned meteorology!

[Shell Mound]

Source (bold red dot indicates latest recon fix of 20.45°N 81.72°W at ~13:00 UTC)

Given that Ida is consistently tracking to the right of even the official forecast, even with a stronger ridge in place landfall might occur dangerously close to NOLA.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Def see the eyewall forming in the CDO.

[Kohlecane]

thinking recon needs to get up near 21N 82W where that CDO is deepening

[MississippiWx]

There are currently 2 hot towers rotating around the center. This is a sign of quick strengthening. I think we may already have a hurricane.