ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[zal0phus]

I fear this could be a Katrina or Rita repeat. The similarities are kind of eerie. The only question is how high this will peak.

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1431268909865488391

[skyline385]

Ida is 7mb deeper than the HWRF forecast at 15Z, the 06Z HWRF run which had a peak of 940mb/121kt.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://imgur.com/DFT5p20

I just realized your name tolakram backwards is markalot. cool. aside from that note Ida has a good chance (more than 50%) IMO of a cat 3 landfall. they need to evacuate now.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1431268909865488391?s=21

Wow that's coming straight from an NHC forecaster. Yikes

[PavelGaborik]

What is the terrain like where she's going over in Cuba? Is it possible she could take slightly longer to reorganize her core when she enters the gulf later today since she's ahead of schedule organization wise or is that wishful thinking?

[Shell Mound]

69-kt FL winds just reported → ~62 kt at surface (hurricane force: 64 kt)

[Hurricaneman]

Note that Camille is an analog, don’t think anything that strong but path and cyclogenesis are very similar

[RL3AO]

What is the terrain like where she's going over in Cuba? Is it possible she could take slightly longer to reorganize her core when she enters the gulf later today since she's ahead of schedule organization wise or is that wishful thinking?

In my experience, storms that take short passages over flat land like western Cuba and the Yucatan often exist with a more organized core and recover very quickly.

[Owasso]

Looks to be rapidly closing up

[grapealcoholic]

Revising my prediction of peak intensity from 915 to 905. Nothing is stopping this monster

[Owasso]

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZxQWWxc/250km-cappi.gif
Looks to be rapidly closing up

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

[tropicwatch]

Center pass indicates that Ida is on the eastern edge of the forecast cone. Wouldn't be surprised if some TS watches/warnings are posted for the keys.

[RL3AO]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZxQWWxc/250km-cappi.gif
Looks to be rapidly closing up

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

Does seem like the island may catch the weaker side of the storm.

[psyclone]

26% odds of hurricane force winds in the big easy on the latest advisory. Those wind probs are going up fast as confidence increases in a big impact

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZxQWWxc/250km-cappi.gif
Looks to be rapidly closing up

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

No not really. There's huge confidence in the forecast track

[micktooth]

The pump responsible for the Lakeview area of New Orleans is out. This is the area where the flood wall failed during Katrina.

[cheezyWXguy]

26% odds of hurricane force winds in the big easy on the latest advisory. Those wind probs are going up fast as confidence increases in a big impact

Agreed. Icon just ran and shifted east with a stronger landfall, and it still initialized 14mb too weak, meaning this may be slightly too far west. Not good for the city.

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZxQWWxc/250km-cappi.gif
Looks to be rapidly closing up

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

Yep, present motion certainly right of near term forecast. "If" strong deepening were to result in a slower forward motion then forecast, there could be timing implications on approach to the coastline resulting in even potentially greater destruction.