ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

https://i.postimg.cc/BZxQWWxc/250km-cappi.gif
Looks to be rapidly closing up

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

No not really. There's huge confidence in the forecast track

There is never “huge confidence” in any forecast track. That’s why the cone of error is there. It also appears to be doing what Shell Mound said.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

990mb and no center pass yet...

I'm going to take that value with a grain of salt as the hurricane hunters were rapidly ascending during the pass.

Yeah, I take this back. That second pass confirmed 990mb. Dropsonde was a little higher @ 992mb. Ida is quickly deepening & will likely be a hurricane soon.

[AlabamaDave]

I am growing increasingly concerned that Ida could take a track similar to the 1947 hurricane or Betsy but feature a LF intensity comparable to Michael’s.

Ugh. We have lots of family down there.

[Hurricane Mike]

New video update on Ida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhHzV0D4BeE

[Chris_in_Tampa]

11:11am EDT: 992mb sonde, 6 knots of surface wind

UZNT13 KNHC 271535
XXAA 77158 99210 70820 08112 99992 27827 09006 00574 ///// /////
92616 23413 03506 85358 23457 04009 70039 15860 88999 77999
31313 09608 81507
61616 AF301 0409A IDA OB 18
62626 CENTER MBL WND 08003 AEV 30404 DLM WND 36001 991698 WL150 0
9506 080 REL 2097N08203W 150702 SPG 2097N08203W 151112 =
XXBB 77158 99210 70820 08112 00992 27827 11923 23214 22900 24240
33850 23457 44779 21459 55710 17261
21212 00992 09006 11960 09002 22887 03009 33876 03513 44850 04009
55753 28512 66742 26510
31313 09608 81507
61616 AF301 0409A IDA OB 18
62626 CENTER MBL WND 08003 AEV 30404 DLM WND 36001 991698 WL150 0
9506 080 REL 2097N08203W 150702 SPG 2097N08203W 151112 =

[xironman]

996 to 992 in one pass, and to think that once this gets the gulf conditions will be better for rapid strengthening.

[Owasso]

996 to 992, the time difference between those two passes was just over 2 hours.

[MississippiWx]

*storms jogs west* OMG its going west of track!!

Not really a joke as Ida has consistently been north and east of any projected track. It has major implications for the city of New Orleans if it keeps happening.

[wx98]

Are there any good analogs for a major hurricane on this track as far as impacts on the New Orleans area? I was kind of thinking Betsy, but she was on a sharper NW trajectory with no curve around to the north when she hit SE Louisiana, and also the center passed closer to the city. Then I thought about Andrew, and the angle of approach is pretty similar, but he made landfall a bit west of current projections. I don't recall Andrew causing dramatic impacts for NOLA. Certainly not trying to downplay, but am wondering whether the current track, with the center crossing over Baton Rouge, would likely spare NOLA from much beyond Cat-1 winds and storm surge outside the levees and sea walls. IF it follows the exact NHC track forecast right now. I know flooding in the city from excessive rainfall will also be a major problem no matter where this lands.

Camille

Camille wasn’t on this track. Went east of New Orleans and hit Mississippi.

[grapealcoholic]

It's literally going to miss juventud from the west

[Hurricane Mike]

*storms jogs west* OMG its going west of track!!

Not really a joke as Ida has consistently been north and east of any projected track. It has major implications for the city of New Orleans if it keeps happening.

I agree.

[SunnyThoughts]

So I guess we won't get any further recon in the storm until it crosses over Cuba and emerges into the Gulf?

[Stormgodess]

WOW grabbed a couple hours sleep, and wake up to what feels like a gut punch looking at the the models. And I knew it would be a monster since yesterday, but dang this is so worse case!

[wx98]

It's literally going to miss juventud from the west

What makes you so sure? It is on radar heading to the eastern side of the island. Probably going to make landfall.

[Shell Mound]

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

Definitely seems like there was a bit of a reformation/snap of the center towards the deeper convection, which was (and still is) mostly on the northern side.

Given the current rate of intensification Ida could conceivably approach MH status at LF on western Cuba. I think 80–90 kt/970–975 mb seems quite likely, given the observed rate of deepening and organisation observed by radar, satellite, and reconnaissance. Ida’s current track, along with its relocated centre, would minimise interaction with the Isla de la Juventud and would maximise the storm’s time over the Gulf of Batabanó prior to landfall on the Cuban mainland. If I recall correctly, the most aggressive model run to date only suggested that Ida would approach ~70 kt/~985 mb at landfall on western Cuba. Ida currently looks to be at least 10 kt/mb stronger than that by the time it impacts western Cuba.

Camille

But Camille went east of New Orleans, although wow. The track is eerily similar other than that!

I am growing increasingly concerned that Ida could take a track similar to the 1947 hurricane or Betsy but feature a LF intensity comparable to Michael’s.

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1431282826993934344




Source (bold red dot indicates estimated position of centre based on recon and Cuban radar, white dotted line[s] past and extrapolated movement)

[capNstorms]

Ida legit just jogged west.

[skyline385]

Adios recon. Hopefully we have another plane arrive in time to provide data for the 5pm advisory.

Is recon done for sure? They just took a north turn

[aspen]

996 to 992 in one pass, and to think that once this gets the gulf conditions will be better for rapid strengthening.

It’s going to spend much of tomorrow over the Loop Current and might be a hurricane upon entering the Gulf…this is a very, very bad combination. I could see it reaching major hurricane intensity as early as tomorrow’s 2pm intermediate advisory.

This is gonna explode tomorrow afternoon.

[jlauderdal]

Ida legit just jogged west.

They dont move in straight lines, never have

[xironman]

So I guess we won't get any further recon in the storm until it crosses over Cuba and emerges into the Gulf?

They start the continuous monitoring tomorrow.

A. BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
AT 28/2330Z