ATL: IDA - Models

[BobHarlem]

12z icon, slight shift right and stronger.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431277125978361862

[Hurricane Mike]

If this thing comes in near Morgan City, the right-side near Grand Isle and New Orleans would have tremendous surge.

[bella_may]

Heard from a MET that this could possibly shift even further East due to how fast it’s intensifying. We’ll see

[kevin]

ICON 12z, 950 mb.

[BobHarlem]

No real track/intensity change with 12z gfs vs 6z.

[PTPatrick]

Not a ground breaking right shift on the 12z gfs, but comes in a few hours faster and a few miles to the right as well.

[Stormcenter]

New GFS is pretty much same as before.
It looks like the models are locking in to
the Morgan City area or maybe a tad west
of that. IMO

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is only showing modest pressure falls at around ~0.3-0.5 mb/hr towards the end of Ida's approach to the Louisiana coast.

I'm not sure why it is showing only modest pressure falls, given the extremely favorable environment it is also depicting. The modest pressure falls might be conservative.

[Steve]

GFS is only showing modest pressure falls at around ~0.3-0.5 mb/hr towards the end of Ida's approach to the Louisiana coast.

I'm not sure why it is showing only modest pressure falls, given the extremely favorable environment it is also depicting. The modest pressure falls might be conservative.

https://i.imgur.com/hTgjKa4.png

Perhaps time of day?

[Shell Mound]

GFS is only showing modest pressure falls at around ~0.3-0.5 mb/hr towards the end of Ida's approach to the Louisiana coast.

I'm not sure why it is showing only modest pressure falls, given the extremely favorable environment it is also depicting. The modest pressure falls might be conservative.

https://i.imgur.com/hTgjKa4.png

Is the run suggesting mid-level westerly shear in the immediate vicinity or just to the west of the circulation?

[Steve]

GFS is only showing modest pressure falls at around ~0.3-0.5 mb/hr towards the end of Ida's approach to the Louisiana coast.

I'm not sure why it is showing only modest pressure falls, given the extremely favorable environment it is also depicting. The modest pressure falls might be conservative.

https://i.imgur.com/hTgjKa4.png

Is the run suggesting mid-level westerly shear in the immediate vicinity or just to the west of the circulation?

Could be. Possibly there could be southerly shear as well since many of the IR depictions show this to be a heavily north-weighted system just after landfall.

Here's the high-resolution FV3 rapid model - 959mb near Grand Isle at 7pm on Sunday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2712&fh=60

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is only showing modest pressure falls at around ~0.3-0.5 mb/hr towards the end of Ida's approach to the Louisiana coast.

I'm not sure why it is showing only modest pressure falls, given the extremely favorable environment it is also depicting. The modest pressure falls might be conservative.

https://i.imgur.com/hTgjKa4.png

Yeah, it’s odd when even the icon is more aggressive than the gfs

[BobHarlem]

12Z Canadian shifts right a bit to directly over New Orleans, but weaker. (note init is 10mb too high)

[IcyTundra]

12Z HMON is 11 MB stronger through 33 hours

[Steve]

12Z Canadian shifts right a bit to directly over New Orleans, but weaker. (note init is 10mb too high)

https://i.imgur.com/twwtt01.png

CMC only ever gets down to 984.

[tolakram]

HWRF running, pretty good init.

[Steve]

HMON coming in on the western edge of the potential track at 54 hours. It's still got a western component and is heading for Vermilion Bay at 949mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2712&fh=54

[BobHarlem]

12z Hmon has a similar track as the last run, but 11mb stronger.

[Kohlecane]

12z Hmon has a similar track as the last run, but 11mb stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/OnptFTw.png

NAM is off somewhere like "what's up now 2K"