How intense will Hurricane Ida be at peak?

[CyclonicFury]

I remember a similar poll being done during Laura last year. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121236&p=2841676&hilit=Laura#p2841676

But it appears as if Ida is set to become a very powerful hurricane over the GOM. Even the ECMWF is deepening Ida to 939 mb. Ida has a very high intensity ceiling and will be traversing SSTs near 31-32°C, with wind shear expected to remain very low.

Mods/admins, could you make a poll with different minimum pressures?

I'll start: 125 kt, 934 mb

[aspen]

930mb, 130-135kt. Staying over the Loop Current for 24-30 hours is sadly going to induce some serious RI before landfall.

[AlphaToOmega]

910 millibars and 150 knots
Ida is already a hurricane, and going over the loop current means that Category V is a realistic possibility

[Stormybajan]

Going for a wide range of 120 knots - 135 knots (140 mph - 155 mph) 939 mb

[Highteeld]

140 kt/919 mb. Going for a Michael repeat. This system is taking the best track possible with the longest fetch of OHC's in the entire basin. cat 5 coming.

[cycloneye]

Made the poll that will be open for voting until Saturday at 3:29 PM EDT.

[Shell Mound]

150 kt / 915 mb

[ElectricStorm]

130-140kts/915-925mb

[kevin]

135 kt, 931 mbar with a lot of Storm2k discussion about flagged or uncertain measurements on the edge of cat 5 (similar to Iota). But I wouldn't be surprised if Ida does manage to become a cat 5. I think it'll all depend on how she manages the Cuba landfall. If she can directly keep intensifying after getting back into the water than I don't see why a cat 5 isn't possible since literally every other signal (except perhaps time) is extremely favorable. If it does take a bit of a hit I think a cat 4 is the most likely scenario. If it takes a big hit my bet is a cat 3. But that is the lower bound, even in the best case scenario I just don't see how this could peak below a cat 3 considering the conditions.

[CyclonicFury]

135 kt, 930 mbar with a lot of Storm2k discussion about flagged or uncertain measurements on the edge of cat 5 (similar to Iota). But I wouldn't be surprised if Ida does manage to become a cat 5. I think it'll all depend on how she manages the Cuba landfall. If she can directly keep intensifying after getting back into the water than I don't see why a cat 5 isn't possible since literally every other signal (except perhaps time) is extremely favorable. If it does take a bit of a hit I think a cat 4 is the most likely scenario. If it takes a big hit my bet is a cat 3. But that is the lower bound, even in the best case scenario I just don't see how this could peak below a cat 3 considering the conditions.

After the ongoing SFMR research and Iota's downgrade, I'm skeptical NHC will upgrade any storm to Category 5 without flight-level winds supporting an upgrade (likely would require 152-155 knot+ flight level winds).

[Iceresistance]

I truly don't know how strong she will get, but I do know one thing: She is going to be powerful for sure . . .

And she might be actually slowing down, only time will tell if that is true . . .

[cycloneye]

CyclonicFury. The poll does not allow to be very long on the options that that is why didn't add the pressures.

[CyclonicFury]

CyclonicFury. The poll does not allow to be very long on the options that that is why didn't add the pressures.

That's fine, users can still post their pressure predictions here.

[tolakram]

130ish kts. We won't get a cat 5 unless shear vanishes. I think there will be 10kts of shear at least all the way in. Not enough to prevent cat 4, but I think it stays below cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to go with 914 mb and 150 kt, late tomorrow night. Landfall at cat 4.

[cycloneye]

I'm going to go with 914 mb and 150 kt, late tomorrow night. Landfall at cat 4.

That fast the landfall?

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to go with 914 mb and 150 kt, late tomorrow night. Landfall at cat 4.

That fast the landfall?

Landfall Sunday afternoon after weakening to cat 4. But peak earlier.

[FireRat]

140 kt with pressure of 925 mb, so a low-end 5.

[aspen]

I'm going to go with 914 mb and 150 kt, late tomorrow night. Landfall at cat 4.

I’m surprised to see any pro met with such an aggressive forecast. That would be a deepening rate of 2.4 mb/hr over 30 hours, on the high end for Gulf majors (Laura was 1.4 mb/hr and Rita was 2.2 mb/hr, both starting when they first went sub-990mb and both over 30-42 hours).

[dexterlabio]

I'm going to go with 914 mb and 150 kt, late tomorrow night. Landfall at cat 4.

I’m surprised to see any pro met with such an aggressive forecast. That would be a deepening rate of 2.4 mb/hr over 30 hours, on the high end for Gulf majors (Laura was 1.4 mb/hr and Rita was 2.2 mb/hr, both starting when they first went sub-990mb and both over 30-42 hours).

I remember you saying that something from the ATL will challenge STY Surigae as the most intense tropical cyclone this year, possibly a sub-900mb...I refuse to agree with that at first, but now I believe that may happen on August 29th.