ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Holy Crap, that's one of the scariest NHC Discussions ever!!! Lord help us if this somehow gets to a Cat 5, although Cat 4 is bad enough!!..................

It's like reading a high-risk outlook from the SPC. Strong wording for sure.

It's definitely one of those that really jumps at you. I'd be concerned about levees there.

Ida could become the worst hurricane to affect Terrebonne Parish since the 1856 Last Island hurricane (130 kt/934 mb). The 1856 hurricane is officially tied with 2020’s Laura (130 kt/939 mb) as Louisiana’s strongest on record, as measured by maximum sustained wind (MSW), though arguably 1957’s Audrey was at least as intense as these two storms, and was likely on the order of 130 kt/925 mb at LF. 1965’s Betsy is in third or fourth place, having made LF on LA with MSW of 115 kt (MSLP: 946 mb).

Ida will rival Hurricane Betsy (1965) in intensity at landfall in SE Louisiana. I'd be boarding up and getting out if I were where the RFQ is expected. I remember quite well, it left New Orleans in shambles for weeks. Heed evacuation warning.....MGC

Was Betsy the strongest hurricane in terms of wind speed to hit Lousianna in recorded history? I know Camille was stronger for the GOM but it made landfall in Mississippi.

1969’s Camille bypassed the mouth of the Mississippi River at 135 kt/919 mb. My personal rankings of the strongest hurricanes on record in Louisiana:

• 1969 Camille: 135 kt/919 mb◇
• 1856 “Last Island”: 130 kt/934 mb
• 1957 Audrey: 130 kt/925 mb*
• 2020 Laura: 130 kt/939 mb✽
• 1965 Betsy: 115 kt/946 mb

◇Did not make landfall in LA, but passed close by
*Unofficial, personal estimation
✽Disputed, could be closer to 100 kt/945 mb

[KimmieLa]

Ooof that Cat 4 forecast is going to be a huge wakeup call for Louisiana. Evacuate or face a likely very powerful storm.

For New Orleans and Baton Rouge, who is responsible for making mandatory evacuations calls?

Never had mandatory evacuations called in BTR in my lifetime, and I am over 60. Either the mayor or the governor one would guess. BTR isn't as vulnerable to flooding during the storm like NOLA. Oh, we flood, but, usually from backwater.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Ah, last the Last Island Hurricane of 1856. I used to own a book about that storm, scary stuff. I had to give away the book because whenever I read it at night I had Andrew in South Florida flashbacks.

[supercane4867]

[aspen]

My god, this is going to be a storm for the history books. I’ve kept saying I expect a mid to high end Cat 4, but I just have this feeling Ida will greatly exceed those predictions tomorrow.

The only possible silver lining is that its currently well-developed core could be crippled over Cuba and it’ll take time to recover in the Gulf, lessening the possible landfall intensity. However, Charley hit the same area as a Cat 3 and was still able to recover and become a pinhole 130 kt Cat 4, so Ida probably won’t be impacted that much.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431362629008826369

[weeniepatrol]

Recon descended to 700mb. Almost into Ida

[Stormgodess]

"According to Robert Simpson, there are no reasons for a Category 6 on the Saffir–Simpson Scale because it is designed to measure the potential damage of a hurricane to human-made structures. Simpson stated that "... when you get up into winds in excess of 155 mph (249 km/h) you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it's going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it's engineered."[6]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2 ... structures.

[otowntiger]

Ida will rival Hurricane Betsy (1965) in intensity at landfall in SE Louisiana. I'd be boarding up and getting out if I were where the RFQ is expected. I remember quite well, it left New Orleans in shambles for weeks. Heed evacuation warning.....MGC

Was Betsy the strongest hurricane in terms of wind speed to hit Lousianna in recorded history? I know Camille was stronger for the GOM but it made landfall in Mississippi.

I believe Laura last year took the prize, if I’m not mistaken.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My god, this is going to be a storm for the history books. I’ve kept saying I expect a mid to high end Cat 4, but I just have this feeling Ida will greatly exceed those predictions tomorrow.

The only possible silver lining is that its currently well-developed core could be crippled over Cuba and it’ll take time to recover in the Gulf, lessening the possible landfall intensity. However, Charley hit the same area as a Cat 3 and was still able to recover and become a pinhole 130 kt Cat 4, so Ida probably won’t be impacted that much.

Perhaps, but sadly unlikely. The spot it will transverse in Cuba is flat and narrow (unlike the more rugged east of the island). A well-developed storm like Ida with a conducive upper-level pattern in place will likely experience minimal inner-core disruption.

[PandaCitrus]

So am I wrong to think current NHC wouldn't be catastrophic for New Orleans even at Cat 4/5? Avoiding the core of the hurricane similar to Katrina but the unknown factor is surge and if all the levy's hold.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/munoz_yaimara/status/1431352995900542977




Translation: “This is how you live on the Isle of Youth in these minutes by the passage of the #HuracánIda”

[vbhoutex]

My god, this is going to be a storm for the history books. I’ve kept saying I expect a mid to high end Cat 4, but I just have this feeling Ida will greatly exceed those predictions tomorrow.

The only possible silver lining is that its currently well-developed core could be crippled over Cuba and it’ll take time to recover in the Gulf, lessening the possible landfall intensity. However, Charley hit the same area as a Cat 3 and was still able to recover and become a pinhole 130 kt Cat 4, so Ida probably won’t be impacted that much.

IIRC, most of the mountains in Cuba are on the East end of the island. That fact, the well developed core, and the narrowness of the land mass might all play into less disruption of the core than we might normally expect.

[xironman]

It looks like it may come ashore at dark, nothing like a landfalling major at night.

[beoumont]

Is your house newer construction? Did you oversee the building of it, what sort of braces, or tie downs were used if any? leaving isnt a possibility, if you know anyone with one of those old 50s style brick ranch houses that are built like low bunkers you might want to stay with them? Just my opinion though. I dont trust alot of these newer constructed homes unless I know whats holding them together. Stay safe though *hugs*

I don't know, it was a new build but we bought it as a spec house so we did not over-see construction. Hopefully everything was up to code. I guess we are about to find out. I do feel safe in it, though.

Louisiana is not Florida, of course. (aside: "You are not a horse. You are not a cow"). But, in S. Florida in 1992 after Hurricane Andrew blew through: it was the homes built before the late 1970s that held up well. It was the newer homes that fell apart. Depends on things like ever-changing stronger and weaker building codes, the level of corruption in the inspector corps and the builders themselves. Basically, almost every home that was made of concrete blocks, who had their windows shuttered, and had a relatively new roof, fared well. Even those homes that lost roofs basically got waterlogged inside; but the walls in most cases stood sturdy. Many of the newer homes in certain areas (like Country Wallk) had 2nd stories, which were made of wood and wall board, and proved quite aerodynamic. Those Spanish tiles on the newer homes, also proved very aerodynamic. I found several of them embedded in the inside walls of the room whose shutter had taken leave in that 175 mph gust. Like you said, you might find out in a few days.

[tolakram]

• 1969 Camille: 135 kt/919 mb◇
• 1856 “Last Island”: 130 kt/934 mb
• 1957 Audrey: 130 kt/925 mb*
• 2020 Laura: 130 kt/939 mb✽
• 1965 Betsy: 115 kt/946 mb

◇Did not make landfall in LA, but passed close by
*Unofficial, personal estimation
✽Disputed, could be closer to 100 kt/945 mb

I don't know of any legitimate dispute over Laura's landfall strength. I find it maddening that measurements taken in the 1800's or mid 1900's are somehow believed more than recent landfalling measurements with data infinitely more accurate then pre 1960.

[utweather]

Ooof that Cat 4 forecast is going to be a huge wakeup call for Louisiana. Evacuate or face a likely very powerful storm.

For New Orleans and Baton Rouge, who is responsible for making mandatory evacuations calls?

Never had mandatory evacuations called in BTR in my lifetime, and I am over 60. Either the mayor or the governor one would guess. BTR isn't as vulnerable to flooding during the storm like NOLA. Oh, we flood, but, usually from backwater.

My moms side of the family is from Baton Rouge and I still have many relatives that still live there. When she was a little girl she survived Hurricane Camille but the neighbors across the street did not. I hope people take the inconvenience of leaving instead of potentially being struck and stranded.

[jdjaguar]

The NHC rarely make very bullish intensity forecasts. But when they do, most of the time the system ends up exceeding the already high expectation.

my thoughts exactly.

[TallahasseeMan]

So am I wrong to think current NHC wouldn't be catastrophic for New Orleans even at Cat 4/5? Avoiding the core of the hurricane similar to Katrina but the unknown factor is surge and if all the levy's hold.

Katrina went east of New Orleans so the weaker side of the storm is what hit the city. While Ida looks currently to be trending farther away from New Orleans than Katrina did it will likely pass to the west of the city which could put it in the "Front-Right quadrant" where conditions are usually the most intense from a hurricane.

[Craters]

Sorry to repeat myself, here, but maybe including a picture or two will help:



That's a low-level water-vapor shot from the COD site. There's obviously 's a lot of dry air around Ida, although it's at a low level. Medium-levels are significantly more humid, but still on the dry side:



My question is about the low-level air. Does low-level dry air affect the deepening of a tropical cyclone, or does it have to be closer to mid-levels to matter? Obviously, Ida is intensifying quickly, but would it be significantly faster if the low-level dry air weren't there?

Thanks!