ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

A textbook shimp:

[hohnywx]

Looks like people are leaving New Orleans this morning:

[TheDreamTraveler]

Quite strange to see literally no intensification from overnight, the IR presentation is rapidly improving right now however so im thinking in about 2 hours once the convective bursts fully wrap around winds should pick up and the pressure should decrease at faster rates

Cuba disrupted the core a bit so it's not too surprising that it's taking time to get stronger. If the land wasn't there it'd be way stronger by now

[KWT]

Anyone whop has been around a while should be well aware Ida has got that textbook look of a cane that is about to blow. Probably going to see some big time RI soon.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like people are leaving New Orleans this morning:

https://imgur.com/GW1hg7V

Good to see and love it when people ignore the politicians.

[aspen]

At least the interaction with Cuba lowered the ceiling a bit…

[ThetaE]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431583976234397704

[Iceresistance]

There is a stubborn Dry slot at the inner core right now, I don't see it lasting long though . . .

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431585275474427910

[gatorcane]

Anyone whop has been around a while should be well aware Ida has got that textbook look of a cane that is about to blow. Probably going to see some big time RI soon.

Agreed, also would say it should be a major by this afternoon or evening, probably sooner than the NHC shows:

[kronotsky]

There is a stubborn Dry slot at the inner core right now, I don't see it lasting long though . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GOES16_1km_ir_202108281155_19.75_28.25_-92.25_-78.25_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Don't think that's dry air -- just an area where the convection hasn't wrapped yet.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least the interaction with Cuba lowered the ceiling a bit…

I suppose, although it most likely had a negligible (in the grand scheme of things) impact on such ceiling since a solid Cat 4 is still pretty darn horrific.

[ElectricStorm]

It's good to see it at least took some time to get going again after Cuba, I'm guessing it took a bit longer since it developed a core before it got there so it got disrupted a bit more. Unfortunately it looks like it's gonna bomb soon. I don't really think Cuba lowered the ceiling and I still expect a 130-140kt storm at peak. I think the only thing Cuba did was prevent an ERC before landfall. With less time, I'm thinking Ida intensifies all the way to landfall now, where if it got going earlier overnight, it could have peaked earlier, and then undergo an ERC before landfall, which arguably would be worse bringing in more surge. Lose-lose situation all around here.

[GCANE]

[Kohlecane]

Anyone whop has been around a while should be well aware Ida has got that textbook look of a cane that is about to blow. Probably going to see some big time RI soon.

Agreed, also would say it should be a major by this afternoon or evening, probably sooner than the NHC shows:

https://i.postimg.cc/yYvFrkr5/goes16-ir-09-L-202108281047.gif

Agree we saw how fast it got it's act together yesterday morning into the afternoon, could see that happen in the next few hours IMO, also maybe my eyes but last couple of frames look mor NNW then a NW mvmt, tracking the angle to 90W will mean everything for impacts E of current cone.

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1431454835946266627

Will be interesting to see the models tomorrow to see if the models are shifting East or they will shift back a little each way up until landfall. As of right now I'm breathing a lot better than I was this morning. Even though that Spaghetti Model from the 1800Z tonight has me a little worried, but going by the NHC cone, I'm barely in it now.

You should be using wind probability, surge and rainfall estimates to assess your risk. Being in or out of the cone doesn't denote risk. as the storm draws closer the cone will narrow...but the extent of the weather hazards won't. the net effect here is there will be an increasing area in a hurricane and or storm surge warning outside of the cone. good luck to you and everyone else up that way.

I'm sorry if I made you guys not understand what is going on in my head, I was very tired when I wrote that. I understand what happens with the Cone, and I do look at all the other products to figure everything up, I have just gotten up and just started reading this and will be looking at all the products while I'm waking up and getting my game plan together and deciding if I should go up to Monroe and then across to Columbus, Ga.

[Highteeld]

It's good to see it at least took some time to get going again after Cuba, I'm guessing it took a bit longer since it developed a core before it got there so it got disrupted a bit more. Unfortunately it looks like it's gonna bomb soon. I don't really think Cuba lowered the ceiling and I still expect a 130kts+. I think the only thing Cuba did was prevent an ERC before landfall. With less time, I'm thinking Ida intensifies all the way to landfall now, where if it got going earlier overnight, it could have peaked earlier, and then undergo an ERC before landfall, which arguably would be worse bringing in more surge. Lose-lose situation all around here.

Yes. With the lack of ERC and larger wind field, it creates serious implications for landfall damage potential.

[Shell Mound]

The 00z HWRF thought Ida would have a central pressure of 986 mb immediately after Cuba, so in some sense the impact of land was understated.

On the other hand, the 00z HWRF thought pressure would *rise 1 mb* a few hours after landfall with Cuba, and sit around 985 mb at 09z. Thus a pressure of 986 mb at 09:40z is actually a lot of recovery put in!

That covers past and present. For the future: that HWRF model run has pressure down to 983 at 12z. If we fall below that in any way we’d be ahead of the HWRF’s schedule (which makes landfall as a 940 mb storm).

The recovery pace post-Cuba has been neither faster than expected nor slower than expected. It has been, with a few deviations, as long as expected.

Yesterday’s 18Z HWRF showed Ida reaching 976 mb as of 12:00 UTC (current time) today. The actual MSLP has ended up being ~10 mb higher.

[otowntiger]

At least the interaction with Cuba lowered the ceiling a bit…

I think there is reason for hope- I think there are starting to be some signs that the intensity may not be as off the charts as previously expected. The fact that the rapid intensification has not started yet, models depicting slightly lower intensity and the indications from the NHC about wind shear and dry air at the time of landfall point to some reason to believe this won’t be a ‘worst case scenario’. But we’ll see. Maybe I’m just being too optimistic.

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.5 mb (29.28 inHg) from Miss Piggy