ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[otowntiger]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

[drezee]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

Earlier drop showed 105mph at about 925mb...no issues to me

[ElectricStorm]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

This is very typical for a system about to bomb that interacted with land. The core has to rebuild and then the pressure will start to fall and the winds will catch up. It's doing a good job rebuilding the core so it looks like it's still on pace for a strong Cat 4 to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

True, but even a cat 3 landfall will be strong....I'm thinking mid to strong Cat 3 at this point, as I think it will weaken a bit prior to landfall as many models are suggesting, but still very dangerous.... but just my personal opinion

[tolakram]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

True, but even a cat 3 landfall will be strong....I'm thinking mid to strong Cat 3 at this point, but still very dangerous....

Just making sure to get some of this spot amateur analysis quoted.

[aspen]

IMO, Ida will not reach Cat 2 intensity until either the 2pm or 5pm advisories. Rebuilding the core is taking some time, so maybe wind impacts at landfall will be slightly less.

[Iceresistance]

Very impressive northern outflow on Ida . . .

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

True, but even a cat 3 landfall will be strong....I'm thinking mid to strong Cat 3 at this point, but still very dangerous....

Just making sure to get some of this spot amateur analysis quoted.

Got to go with what the models are telling you..........

[MississippiWx]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

[cheezyWXguy]

So like, 6 towers just popped up around the eyewall in the last few minutes…

[Shell Mound]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

 https://twitter.com/ben108472/status/1431614639951933447

[hurricaneCW]

Ida's core never got disrupted so there's nothing to rebuild.

However Cuba's impact stalled out its RI phase so it'll take time to begin a new one. I fear an exploding cane 6-12hrs before landfall a la Michael.

This thing could go from a Cat 1 to 4 very quickly.

On the other hand the delay in RI could last even longer. If that's the case then it may only be an intensifying Cat 2 at landfall given it only has another 36hrs before landfall.

[skyline385]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

NHC almost never backs down on forecasts unless they are absolutely 100% sure. They want to make sure they are taken seriously by the general public...

[La Sirena]

I live in Hattiesburg in SE Mississippi. I-59 runs through here from NOLA, so we get the evacuation traffic. Contra flow is built to come all the way to us before going back to regular flow. Traffic is bumper to bumper on the northbound side of the interstate. It’s an absolute shame Louisiana didn’t implement contraflow and use the infrastructure that is designed for THIS PURPOSE!

I expect nothing less.
I just hope these people can get out of here before it’s too late and they’re stuck.

My husband flew for the Coast Guard during Ike, Ivan, and Katrina. Katrina hit him the hardest. Harder than anything he ever saw in combat as an Apache pilot. It’s hard to think we might be watching a repeat. My heart goes out to all in the path. Be as prepared as you can be if you’re not already.

[otowntiger]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

True, but even a cat 3 landfall will be strong....I'm thinking mid to strong Cat 3 at this point, as I think it will weaken a bit prior to landfall as many models are suggesting, but still very dangerous.... but just my personal opinion

this is what I’m thinking too. I’m not saying it won’t RI and won’t become a dangerous major, I just don’t think it has time now to get any higher than a cat 3. Forecasted dry air and shear as it makes landfall will also help to increase its weakening, I think faster than usual. But we’ll see.

[jlauderdal]

If you want to watch local coverage then go here: https://newson.us/featured

[hohnywx]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

They expect it to go from Cat 1 to 4 in 2.5 hours this morning. Come on.

[Meteorcane]

Towers firing in nearly all quadrants of the eyewall at present... bodes well for continued ramp up

[MississippiWx]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

https://twitter.com/ben108472/status/1431614639951933447

Oh. Ben08472 on Twitter said it’s not strengthening quickly because of limited lightning?

I’ll go with the recon updates that say it is.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

https://twitter.com/ben108472/status/1431614639951933447

Uh-huh.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1431608640411111424