ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Maryellen46]

If you want to watch local coverage then go here: https://newson.us/featured

Also HTV 10 out of Houma. Some of those residents calling in are clueless and are not leaving.
https://www.htv10.tv/

[jlauderdal]

I must be missing something. Ida dropped 2-3mb in one pass and continues to improve. I’m not sure what some of you are expecting to find already. Lol.

They expect it to go from Cat 1 to 4 in 2.5 hours this morning. Come on.

Who expects it to go from a 1 to a 4 this morning?

[ScottNAtlanta]

You always look for the hot towers rotating around the common center. This is very similar to what happened with Grace. Two big hot towers started to rotate around each other until they closed and then the floor fell out of the pressure readings. Similar thing happening now with Ida

[ElectricStorm]

987 and not to the center yet on AF plane

[TheDreamTraveler]

Ida's core never got disrupted so there's nothing to rebuild.

However Cuba's impact stalled out its RI phase so it'll take time to begin a new one. I fear an exploding cane 6-12hrs before landfall a la Michael.

This thing could go from a Cat 1 to 4 very quickly.

On the other hand the delay in RI could last even longer. If that's the case then it may only be an intensifying Cat 2 at landfall given it only has another 36hrs before landfall.

If Cuba's impact didn't disrupt it then the RI phase wouldn't have been delayed lol. Either way we're long over that so there shouldn't be anything to stop it now

[Kohlecane]

Sorry images are easy loops I can never figure out lol
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined
ULWV the ULL over the W.GOM does not to be moving much at all IMO, and the Ridge over the SE doesn't seem incredibly strong ATM IMAO
With a potential RI incoming I can see why a potential E shift. at least TWC showed the HRRR and it looked like a LF between Houma-Grand Isle
Also might have missed this in other posts but does the Poleward and horizontal rule just not as likely with this set up

[tolakram]

I'm always torn on how to judge thoughtful analysis vs downcasting when we have a storm approaching the coast. I will remind everyone though, if you spread false information I will ask the mods to remove your posting privledges until the storm has passed. Double check your sources and add a disclaimer if you think it's important enough to post but you still aren't sure.

For example, it's not difficult to look up the NHC forecast positions and storm strength.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

[typhoonty]

I’m surprised that the NHC just increased Ida’s MSW to 75 kt at 12:00 UTC. FL winds and SFMR in the strongest quadrant only support 65–70 kt.

Yeah, I doesn’t look like RI has started yet. I’m thinking the intensity forecasts are going to come down and the NHC will be having to back off of their cat 4 predictions soon. But just my opinion. But I’m no expert. For those in its path prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

Your daily reminder that Hurricane Grace intensified 50 mph in 18 hours in the gulf last week! Conditions are expected to be favorable for similar intensification rates with Ida. It took about a day for Grace to reestablish herself to get in position to RI, and the same may be needed for Ida. Once the on switch is flipped, Ida might go up 2 categories in 6 hours. I'm all for rooting that Ida won't be a major or a category 4, but I don't see it.

[facemane]

I live in Hattiesburg in SE Mississippi. I-59 runs through here from NOLA, so we get the evacuation traffic. Contra flow is built to come all the way to us before going back to regular flow. Traffic is bumper to bumper on the northbound side of the interstate. It’s an absolute shame Louisiana didn’t implement contraflow and use the infrastructure that is designed for THIS PURPOSE!

Contraflow wound up being a disaster during Katrina. It emptied the city quickly,but once traffic hit the I-59/I-12 split, I-10 E and W became a huge parking lot. I evacuated to family
in Georgia for Katrina. I live in Biloxi and it took me 12 hrs to get to Mobile Ala. That's normally a 1 hr trip.

The above said, contraflow is a good idea in principle.but it does have a few kinks that need to be worked out. This article is dated,but still makes some good points.

https://www.picayuneitem.com/2008/09/co ... e-thought/

[wx98]

TWC and some local Mets starting to preach the intensity guidance, most of which is Cat 2/low end Cat 3. Hope that doesn’t bust…

[weathaguyry]

It appears that the land interaction yesterday and current proximity to Cuba has limited outflow somewhat for now in the S/SE portion of the circulation. It also looks like some of the rich moisture inflow on the east side is getting blocked by Cuba. Nevertheless a major hurricane at landfall is not out of the question at all, and it will only be moving farther from Cuba and over some of the highest Atlantic OHC. My best amateur guess is 100kt/955mb at landfall between Franklin and Morgan City moving NNW. Praying that dry air and shear can work it’s wonderful magic near landfall, but it looks like it’s going to be too little too late

[ElectricStorm]

982.1mb extrap on AF plane

[wx98]

I live in Hattiesburg in SE Mississippi. I-59 runs through here from NOLA, so we get the evacuation traffic. Contra flow is built to come all the way to us before going back to regular flow. Traffic is bumper to bumper on the northbound side of the interstate. It’s an absolute shame Louisiana didn’t implement contraflow and use the infrastructure that is designed for THIS PURPOSE!

The incompetence hasn’t changed since 2005.

[Dean4Storms]

Is it just my eyes or did Ida move a bit more NNW last few frames?

[ScottNAtlanta]

987 and not to the center yet on AF plane

Lowest extrapolated on this pass was 982.1

[Iceresistance]

982 MB Extrapolated from AF305



Remember it was 985 MB Extrapolated from the last pass?

[hohnywx]

982.1mb extrap on AF plane

A bit of a drop since the last time.

[Kohlecane]

Interesting pressure fluctuation

[Hypercane_Kyle]

2-3mb drop since the last pass. Ida is deepening.