ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1431646364006600709?s=19

lol did you just link your own tweet?

Did you just try to make fun of him for linking to a multimedia tweet rather than reconstructing it here?

(Edit: Sorry, may be a little punchy, but I'm always unamused by misapplication of the made-up, oft-ignored 'rule' that one must not retweet oneself under any circumstances . . . it's sillier than "the wrong fork", and frequently ignored with good reason.)

Yeah there are several people here that do that, not sure why he’s being called out. I’m not a huge fan of the practice, as it tends to make the statement look more official than it actually is, but it seems to be generally accepted

[Ubuntwo]

https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1431646364006600709?s=19

Nope, we are only seeing a fraction of the eye peek out (most is obscured by convective anvils), it is still about 24 nautical miles across.

[CryHavoc]

lol did you just link your own tweet?

Did you just try to make fun of him for linking to a multimedia tweet rather than reconstructing it here?

(Edit: Sorry, may be a little punchy, but I'm always unamused by misapplication of the made-up, oft-ignored 'rule' that one must not retweet oneself under any circumstances . . . it's sillier than "the wrong fork", and frequently ignored with good reason.)

Yeah there are several people here that do that, not sure why he’s being called out. I’m not a huge fan of the practice, as it tends to make the statement look more official than it actually is, but it seems to be generally accepted

Nothing posted here is or should be taken as official.

IMO the content here that needs to be seriously looked at is mostly landfall/intensity forecasts. Those *can* matter to people trying to get information. Eye size can make a difference in impact, sure, but overall it's not as essential to forecast. I would hope no one would decide to evacuate or stay based on eye size.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/paytonmalonewx/status/1431648782790369286

[tomatkins]

After the Rita situation in Houston, I think the general consensus is that these kind of mass evacuations hurt more than they help. Evacuating a small town is one thing. But evacuating a million person metro is bound to leave alot of people more vulnerable than they might have been had they stayed in their neighborhood and went to the local gym or other sturdy structure.

While I agree with you for most big cities, New Orleans is different because it lies below sea level and the thread of catastrophic flooding is great.

Hopefully the levees hold and the worst of Ida is focused on an area that can handle the punch without catastrophic consequences. I do have some hope now that Nora is a large storm that it will create some shear before Ida makes landfall.

The threat of catastrophic flooding is higher than normal, but only for certain areas.

I certainly wouldn't want to be a decision maker down there though.

[NDG]

Update: My family including my Mom is evacuating Nola, they got on the road an hour ago heading east to Orange Beach AL, my cousin found a big rental home in short notice.
A usual 3 hr drive is going to take them almost 6 hrs to get there because of traffic, is bumper to bumper traffic on I-10 from Nola to Gulfport.

Ida is starting to get its act together this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/YJgSqad.gif

The area they are going is safe?

Yes, "safer" is the word, better than staying behind in Nola. The house is supposed to be in the town part of Orange Beach not directly on the beach.
One of my aunts is 87 years old with asthma so they didn't wanted to travel too far away, they have a friend in the northern section of Pensacola FL well above sea level in case they need to go there they will go there but I don't see the need of it.

[chaser1]

Update: My family including my Mom is evacuating Nola, they got on the road an hour ago heading east to Orange Beach AL, my cousin found a big rental home in short notice.
A usual 3 hr drive is going to take them almost 6 hrs to get there because of traffic, is bumper to bumper traffic on I-10 from Nola to Gulfport.

Ida is starting to get its act together this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/YJgSqad.gif

That'll be a miserable drive, but WELL worth it's taking. Hopefully they'll return in a few days to a home intact.

[dexterlabio]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

[gatorcane]

https://imgur.com/a/rljLjL9

[Kohlecane]

Sandwich

Cirrus (NIR)

Very beautiful to watch this on a loop with 200 frames coming together quite nice

[AlphaToOmega]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

[tolakram]

saved loop

[skyline385]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

[dexterlabio]

Sandwich
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.sandwich.20210828.162524-overmap-bars.gif
Cirrus (NIR)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.04.20210828.162724-overmap-bars.gif
Very beautiful to watch this on a loop with 200 frames coming together quite nice

This is what I'm talking about...imagine this traversing an area of very high OHC (which it would in a few hours) and lower VWS...

In my amateur opinion a Cat5 is not yet off the table.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

I wish we had recon in there because it is likely in the 970s now. This thing is in take off mode.

[SconnieCane]

Uh yeah...the, um, rapid eye clearing is alarming to say the least.

[galaxy401]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

Worth noting that Laura also took a day or so to strengthen once it was in the Gulf of Mexico due to the aftermath of the Cuba crossing.

A delayed Ida strengthening could mean it might decide to strengthen right when it makes landfall. The larger size and east wobbles make it more concerning for New Orleans too...

[FLpanhandle91]

A warming/warm eye is one of the best indicators of a strengthening system. I expect recon to find a markedly stronger storm this time.

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely getting going now

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

True, but keep in mind Laura did not have the advantage of going over an extremely hot, anomalously off the charts Loop Current while Ida does.