How intense will Hurricane Ida be at peak?

[dexterlabio]

But really, does anyone else think a sub 900mb is within the realm of possibility with Ida? It's not like the conditions right now in the gulf don't support a really intense Cat5.

[IcyTundra]

But really, does anyone else think a sub 900mb is within the realm of possibility with Ida? It's not like the conditions right now in the gulf don't support a really intense Cat5.

It's certainly possible but the limiting factor will be time over water. Ida is going to have 40-48 move hours over water and will have to deepen ~90 mb in that time which is close to 2 mb/hr. Conditions are quite favorable and rapid intensification is practically guaranteed but I don't think it will be sub 900 mb. I am thinking more along the lines of somewhere between 920-930 mb.

[galaxy401]

I don't like predicting these due to a lot of "what ifs" but I feel this is going to reach an intensity similar to Laura. I'll go with a strong Cat 4.

[dexterlabio]

Laura emerged from Cuba landfall as a TS without a solid core, yet managed to be a Cat4...to note strengthening Laura commenced as it approaches LA. Ida, on the other hand, is a 80mph hurricane right now with a discernable eyewall that is starting to consolidate...and OHC will only get higher as Ida approaches land. One can only imagine how strong Ida would be as opposed to Laura.

[Chris90]

I wouldn't forecast a sub-900mb storm because it's such an incredibly rare event, but I do think it's got time. Storms that go sub-900 generally don't do so over a steady 3 day intensification period, they pretty much always bomb out because they require a perfect environment, and as a result they get to those sub-900 pressures because they shed mbs like they're a fur coat in a heatwave. Gilbert dropped 72mbs in 24 hours. Wilma dropped 97mbs in 24 hours.

In Ida's case, I think she can feasibly get into the 920s. I'll say 921mb/145kts.

[aspen]

Ida’s pause in intensification following its passage over Cuba should mean that anything below 910-915mb is off the table. An intensity similar to Laura, or between Laura and Harvey, seems the most likely.

[AlphaToOmega]

Ida’s pause in intensification following its passage over Cuba should mean that anything below 910-915mb is off the table. An intensity similar to Laura, or between Laura and Harvey, seems the most likely.

If I recall correctly, Ida is more intense in the Gulf now than Laura was when it entered the Gulf of Mexico.

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean it could happen theoretically, but getting a sub-900 mbar storm is very hard in a given year. Only four recorded seasons in the past had one: 1935, 1980, 1988, and 2005. I think Ida’s true upper limit is a high 910s mbar, 160 mph storm (like Michael or Hugo), but I personally do not think that a sub-900 mbar storm is going to happen just because of how rare they simply are. Albeit, we are overdue for one

[Category5Kaiju]

130ish kts. We won't get a cat 5 unless shear vanishes. I think there will be 10kts of shear at least all the way in. Not enough to prevent cat 4, but I think it stays below cat 5.

Wasn’t shear supposed to be very low though? I have heard forecasters saying that

[tolakram]

130ish kts. We won't get a cat 5 unless shear vanishes. I think there will be 10kts of shear at least all the way in. Not enough to prevent cat 4, but I think it stays below cat 5.

Wasn’t shear supposed to be very low though? I have heard forecasters saying that

10kts is low, very low. Cat 5 requires near 0. The storm is moving in the same direction as the shear, so who knows, but it's my best guess.

[SteveM]

Mid end cat 4. Cat 3 at landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

130ish kts. We won't get a cat 5 unless shear vanishes. I think there will be 10kts of shear at least all the way in. Not enough to prevent cat 4, but I think it stays below cat 5.

Wasn’t shear supposed to be very low though? I have heard forecasters saying that

10kts is low, very low. Cat 5 requires near 0. The storm is moving in the same direction as the shear, so who knows, but it's my best guess.

Ok, understood. I think the key here is that while there may be non-zero shear, the shear's direction is predicted to be in favor of Ida, so I guess we'll see. I mean, not saying it is going to happen of course, but we had Michael that endured 25 knots of shear, so yeah, interesting things can happen in the Gulf of Mexico

[otowntiger]

I think it will surprise us (in a good way) and peak no higher than 100kt and weaken before landfall. That happens frequently with northern gulf coast landfalling storms. As the NHC indicated it is a little behind schedule on starting RI. I don’t doubt RI will happen, but i personally think it won’t get past low end cat 3.

[ElectricStorm]

I think it will surprise us (in a good way) and peak no higher than 100kt and weaken before landfall. That happens frequently with northern gulf coast landfalling storms. As the NHC indicated it is a little behind schedule on starting RI. I don’t doubt RI will happen, but i personally think it won’t get past low end cat 3.

Are we looking at the same storm here? The one I'm looking at is supposed to be a major by tonight and looks like it might become one earlier than that.

[cycloneye]

At 3:29 PM EDT the poll closes for voting so those who still have not done so hurry.

[galaxy401]

Ida has now made landfall at an intensity of 130 kts and a Pressure of 930 mb. Congrats, though very somber, to the 20 people that voted that...