ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormybajan]

Best looking non-major hurricane since Cat 1-2 Iota Ida is interesting ill give her that

[chaser1]

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.

Seems reasonable; am guessing 976-978mb on next fix. I still think we'll see some eye contraction fairly soon. Then we'll see the pressure drop like a house of cards.

[gatorcane]

Big wobble to the right (north)

[tolakram]

one more saved loop, view since this morning.

[Ian2401]

Big wobble to the right (north)

https://i.postimg.cc/054q7rr9/goes16-vis-09-L-202108281537.gif

wobble watching has begun

[cjrciadt]

Big wobble to the right (north)

https://i.postimg.cc/054q7rr9/goes16-vis-09-L-202108281537.gif

wobble watching has begun

350 Shorterm motion?

[supercane4867]

Textbook rapid deepening...hot towers spinning around the eye

[tolakram]

closeup saved loop

[FLpanhandle91]

[gatorcane]

closeup saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/nJhmHqF.gif

Wow.

Only a matter of time before we see the winds increase and pressures rapidly drop.

[wx98]

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.

Seems reasonable; am guessing 976-978mb on next fix. I still think we'll see some eye contraction fairly soon. Then we'll see the pressure drop like a house of cards.

Next fix is still 4 hours from now. It’ll be deeper than 976.

[chaser1]

Big wobble to the right (north)

https://i.postimg.cc/054q7rr9/goes16-vis-09-L-202108281537.gif

wobble watching has begun

Doesn't appear a result of being yanked/pulled as a result of a vort max. My second thought is that we're seeing it try to tighten at the surface and is rotating within the broader mid level eye. If so, i'd suppose we'll soon see it jerk a bit west shortly?

[Teban54]

Almost circular eye on IR now. This thing surely cleared out in a hurry.

[Clearcloudz]

Even though traffic is increasing keep in mind guys a lot people who are not financial able to will not leave even where there are mandatory evacuations just because this storm came in short notice and communication to public started late as well.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431645732197576704

[Highteeld]

Yikes.

[gatorcane]

85mph? Seems like the winds are much higher than that and if not will be soon:

[chaser1]

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.

Seems reasonable; am guessing 976-978mb on next fix. I still think we'll see some eye contraction fairly soon. Then we'll see the pressure drop like a house of cards.

Next fix is still 4 hours from now. It’ll be deeper than 976.

Seriously, 4 hours? Yes, deeper indeed

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431664541922889735




Note that the weakest members are on the eastern envelope of the guidance. Nevertheless, Ida will certainly be a MH at LF, and will likely be intensifying as it does so, given that it is likely to make LF closer to NOLA, implying that VWS would not increase until after LF. At this point I think impacts will be similar to but probably somewhat less severe than Betsy’s (1965), owing to Ida’s smaller size compensating for its nearshore slowdown and intensification, unless Ida were to intensify significantly more than indicated by either models or the NHC. Regardless, this will be a major hurricane at LF. Be ready.

[wx98]

Seems reasonable; am guessing 976-978mb on next fix. I still think we'll see some eye contraction fairly soon. Then we'll see the pressure drop like a house of cards.

Next fix is still 4 hours from now. It’ll be deeper than 976.

Seriously, 4 hours? Yes, deeper indeed

Unless I am missing something the next planes don’t depart until 20z and 20:45z.

[FLpanhandle91]

If there is a blow up of convection in that northern eyewall, she will be well on her way to cat 4.