ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

JUST A SILLY QUESTION:

12 Zuku is 7AM CDT and 8EDT, right? So about 6 1/2 hours old at 1:30 PM CDT?

Zulu is 4 hour difference from EDT
Edit: yes 12Z would be 8AM EDT and 7AM CDT

[SEASON_CANCELED]

AVNO

https://i.imgur.com/ma8yFCz.png

That HOOK!!

Where have i seen that before!?

We may be dealing with this storm still on Labor day!

[Teban54]

Definitely east of NHC track. I'm a bit worried for NOLA. When is the last time they were in the actual eyewall of a major?

Zeta made landfall as a 100kt major and then went directly over New Orleans, but it probably had weakened a bit by the time it reached there.

[DestinHurricane]

And there's the eye closed again, probably going to undergo the EWRC or eye meld while over the loop current and eventually open up to a Cat 3/4...

No sign of an ERC occurring. Just a hot tower covering the eye right now.

[Kohlecane]

Definitely east of NHC track. I'm a bit worried for NOLA. When is the last time they were in the actual eyewall of a major?

Zeta made landfall as a 100kt major and then went directly over New Orleans, but it probably had weakened a bit by the time it reached there.

keep in mind Zeta's approach was completely different

[MBryant]

Thanks.

[Chemmers]

I really hope that Ida does NOT get as powerful as Dorian did, it would devastate Louisiana like Dorian did to The Bahamas . . .

So sorry auto correct it should say dosnt end up with wind off dorian

Oh ok, now that makes more sense. Although I will say, now that we are faced with a strengthening storm that will likely cause death, damage, and trauma to Louisiana, I think it's important that those people who actively hope for a monster, destructive hurricane understand that they must be careful what they wish for as wishing for mass destruction and loss of lives is a mean-spirited thing to do and that they should tone their excitement down to a healthy and helpful level. I have definitely seen such individuals on social media, and imho while I am an avid hurricane tracker it infuriates me that there are a handful of trackers who simply wish for a monster, horrible hurricane just for the sake of it.

I know it is heart breaking the story you hear after a strong storm please be safe everyone

[grapealcoholic]

It worked for hours to squeeze off a pinhole mid-level eye. The results should be seen very shortly

[SconnieCane]

Definitely east of NHC track. I'm a bit worried for NOLA. When is the last time they were in the actual eyewall of a major?

Zeta made landfall as a 100kt major and then went directly over New Orleans, but it probably had weakened a bit by the time it reached there.

keep in mind Zeta's approach was completely different

Yes, it's been said before but Zeta's SW to NE angle of approach really mitigated surge effects into the New Orleans area, add that to the fact that although Zeta was intense, Ida will potentially be much stronger.

[skyline385]

Zeta made landfall as a 100kt major and then went directly over New Orleans, but it probably had weakened a bit by the time it reached there.

keep in mind Zeta's approach was completely different

Yes, it's been said before but Zeta's SW to NE angle of approach really mitigated surge effects into the New Orleans area, add that to the fact that although Zeta was intense, Ida will potentially be much stronger.

Zeta was also moving very fast...

[Kohlecane]

Updraft of those towers in the W side of the Eye wall seem to correlate to it being obscured on cirrus sat imagery IMO

[Jr0d]

It worked for hours to squeeze off a pinhole mid-level eye. The results should be seen very shortly

I am hoping we do not see a pinhole eye. I remember a storm that rapidly intensified and ended up with a pinhole eye. The hurricane hunters thought their calibration was off because how fast and how low the pressure was.

This would be a nightmare scenario for a storm approaching populated areas.

[EquusStorm]

Multi-cane action

[Nate-Gillson]

It worked for hours to squeeze off a pinhole mid-level eye. The results should be seen very shortly

I am hoping we do not see a pinhole eye. I remember a storm that rapidly intensified and ended up with a pinhole eye. The hurricane hunters thought their calibration was off because how fast and how low the pressure was.

This would be a nightmare scenario for a storm approaching populated areas.

Charlie from 2004?

[Seadootoo]

JUST A SILLY QUESTION:

12 Zuku is 7AM CDT and 8EDT, right? So about 6 1/2 hours old at 1:30 PM CDT?

1830z

[Craters]

If you're lurking and reading this thread to help you decide whether to stay in a location that could feel strong effects from Hurricane Ida, please allow me to bring up a few things that might help you make up your mind.

(1) This thread is putting many of us in the position of the legendary frog in a bowl of water on a hotplate. If the temperature of the water goes up gradually, the frog will just stay there and stew to death. If it went up faster, out will hurry the froggy to live another day. The bottom line of the analogy: there's an active debate on this thread, for lack of a better word, as to whether Ida will be a Category 4 or Category 5 storm at landfall. What would you do if, on a nice, peaceful, clear day, an angel appeared and told you that a Category 3 storm would absolutely, positively be on your doorstep in six hours? I know what I would do, and I'd find a church as soon as I could after I got there so I could do some quiet, serious thanking. That Category 4 or 5 debate is numbing some of us against the threat that ANY hurricane could pose. If you haven't been in a major hurricane -- or even a strong Category 2 -- trust me: you have no idea what you're messing with.

(2) I was in the eastern eyewall of Hurricane Alicia, which was probably just barely a Category 3 storm by the time it got as far inland as my location. Barring a decent explosion, nearby lightning strike, or rocket launch, it was literally the loudest thing that I'd ever heard in my life, and it lasted for hours. Imagine a fully-fueled 747 with the old engines (not the relatively quiet turbofans that planes have today) strapped down about 100 yards away, with the engines maxed out until the fuel tank went dry. That's as close I can come to describing it. Luckily, I didn't have any family or critters with me to worry about at the time, and I was young enough to be stupid about it. It still scared the bejesus out of me.

(3) If you're staying behind with family members or pets, there are basically two outcomes if you're in a potential danger zone. If it happens at night, the complete darkness will make this even worse. (A) You'll luck out and just end up being terrified almost senseless for hours as the storm tries its best to turn your area into a windy, watery version of hell, with you wondering to God why you didn't leave while you could, or (B) your luck will run out and you'll go through all of the things in (A), but you might not be around to remember them. And those with you might not, either. If you're lucky enough to survive, any possible injuries aside, it will almost certainly rank up there as one of the worst experiences of your life. If anybody with you gets hurt, God forbid, you'll have to live with that for the rest of your life.

(4) Ask yourself this when you get a reasonably calm moment: Why am I staying? Good question. There will be absolutely nothing you can do during the storm other than be scared to death. After the storm, you'll basically be able to do nothing. If your family or critters are with you, you'll be able to do little for them, either. If one of them or you get hurt, somebody had better have VERY good first-aid skills; some injuries, however, would just be untreatable until professional medical help became available. And that, literally, could be days away. Why in the world would you ever put yourself and them in a position where somethng like that would even have a chance of happening?

I hope I'm getting my point across. The rest is up to you.

Godspeed, regardless...

[supercane4867]

Beautiful outflow pattern

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT25 KNES 281756
TCSNTL

A. 09L (IDA)

B. 28/1730Z

C. 25.6N

D. 86.5W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE TEMP WITH A LG RING RESULTING IN AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT OF 0.0. THE SYSTEM LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTING IN AN EYE
PATTERN DT OF 4.5 WITH THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
ATTEMPTING TO SUSTAIN A BLACK RING AROUND THE EYE HOWEVER HAS NOT BEEN
ABLE TO. FURTHERMORE, THE EYE CAN NOW BE SEEN ON BOTH EIR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. MET AND PT
ARE UNDEFINED DUE TO SYSTEM BEING ON LAND 24 HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

Needs to smooth its CDO out. Went for a wrap around, now there’s a new hot tower that obscured the eye.

[SconnieCane]

Multi-cane action

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/837497238288203857/881248605137162260/GOES18202021240H7TwtL.jpg

I'm gonna repost this anytime anyone states that two well-organized tropical cyclones can't coexist in the eastern EPAC and western Atlantic basins at the same time.